tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-94966582024-03-18T23:44:14.640-04:00Political CalculationsUnexpectedly Intriguing!Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4943125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-58205124302192751082024-03-18T06:22:00.016-04:002024-03-18T06:22:00.130-04:00S&P 500 Investors Riding a Disappointing Roller Coaster<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ3h5BdERIniMR6JmUfWs7H8F97-7CtQVKHPDMYW5qf9TnPAZDknvQTIsNwTaxzFoYQ73y4PldzA93EkPjZxWx2vmU4v5_s7EFTgS6Lpqo_xS-LRXfFVrEQp4qeSX0MxNwMayHKhR8fg-APZsFOKf4ZWmsWm6l7xM4bj7Wx4qtsrYJdr2oyiE3/s1024/_51d3e11f-717f-43e2-839f-342ddc95ac2a.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ3h5BdERIniMR6JmUfWs7H8F97-7CtQVKHPDMYW5qf9TnPAZDknvQTIsNwTaxzFoYQ73y4PldzA93EkPjZxWx2vmU4v5_s7EFTgS6Lpqo_xS-LRXfFVrEQp4qeSX0MxNwMayHKhR8fg-APZsFOKf4ZWmsWm6l7xM4bj7Wx4qtsrYJdr2oyiE3/s320/_51d3e11f-717f-43e2-839f-342ddc95ac2a.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="A bull and a bear riding a roller coaster together, not smiling. Generated with Microsoft Copilot Designer." title="A bull and a bear riding a roller coaster together, not smiling." /></a></div>
<p>As trading weeks go, the second week of March 2024 resembled a disappointing roller coaster ride for investors. The S&P 500 (Index: <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/" target="_blank">SPX</a>) climbed to a new record high of 5,175.27 on Tuesday, 12 March 2024, but then went on to lose 1.1% of that new high value by the end of the week on the downhill part of its ride. The index closed at <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1709856000&period2=1710547200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true" target="_blank">5,117.09</a>, a small 0.13% decline from the previous week's close. </p>
<p>What made the week disappointing for investors is a shift in expectations for how frequent interest rate cuts will be during 2024. Higher than expected inflation reports drove the change. While the CME Group's <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank">FedWatch Tool</a> continues to project the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 12 June 2024 (2024-Q2) when it is expected to begin a series of quarter point rate cuts starting on that date, the FedWatch Tool's outlook changed to indicate investors are now anticipating these rate cuts will proceed at twelve week intervals, occurring less often than was projected just last week. </p>
<p>The downward leg of the S&P 500's roller coaster ride during the past week puts the index' trajectory closer to the middle of the redzone forecast range, as indicated in the <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWwf_rkAQfDA0ZE4YJVIKcBbD7jZ7EYdeDgKLUGP9i7yI_1EdVS2k_0gTGaOu-fZyMeyoEcIBtzXCL7R9LeN4-ihDQdCOxKWbv9YYDDZ-P2y1RfNqSNpO3Or-mp641yU_OzCrm2slQuttdvkZX6ckzenNeGMFKMCqLVxiOXbCC8N58N-kiX2Sh/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20240221-20240329-focus-2024Q2-snapshot-20240315.png" target="_blank">latest update</a> in the alternative futures chart. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWwf_rkAQfDA0ZE4YJVIKcBbD7jZ7EYdeDgKLUGP9i7yI_1EdVS2k_0gTGaOu-fZyMeyoEcIBtzXCL7R9LeN4-ihDQdCOxKWbv9YYDDZ-P2y1RfNqSNpO3Or-mp641yU_OzCrm2slQuttdvkZX6ckzenNeGMFKMCqLVxiOXbCC8N58N-kiX2Sh/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20240221-20240329-focus-2024Q2-snapshot-20240315.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWwf_rkAQfDA0ZE4YJVIKcBbD7jZ7EYdeDgKLUGP9i7yI_1EdVS2k_0gTGaOu-fZyMeyoEcIBtzXCL7R9LeN4-ihDQdCOxKWbv9YYDDZ-P2y1RfNqSNpO3Or-mp641yU_OzCrm2slQuttdvkZX6ckzenNeGMFKMCqLVxiOXbCC8N58N-kiX2Sh/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20240221-20240329-focus-2024Q2-snapshot-20240315.png" alt="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 15 Mar 2024" title="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 15 Mar 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 910px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Speaking about the future for interest rates, there were two other big economic news headlines involving them during the week that was. First, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled it will almost certainly begin cutting Eurozone interest rates by the end of the this month. But in Japan, the Bank of Japan will take the opposite action as inflation ramps up in that country, marking the end of its long-running negative interest rate policy. </p>
<p>Those headlines, and more, are included in the following summary of the week's market-moving headlines: </p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Monday, 11 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-fall-china-demand-worries-2024-03-11/" target="_blank">Oil prices steady as Middle Eastern supply concerns ease</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-leads-global-oil-production-sixth-straight-year-eia-2024-03-11/" target="_blank">US leads global oil production for sixth straight year- EIA</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-accelerates-february-unemployment-rate-rises-39-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">US labor market cooling; unemployment rate rises to two-year high of 3.9%</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions close bailout fund for regional banks, expected to start rate cuts in June: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/emergency-fed-bank-effort-ends-lending-eyes-turn-discount-window-2024-03-11/" target="_blank">Emergency Fed bank effort ends lending, as eyes turn to discount window</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-start-rate-cuts-june-risk-fewer-delivered-this-year-2024-03-11/" target="_blank">Fed to start rate cuts in June; risk fewer delivered this year: Reuters poll</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger bailout, trouble developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/chinese-regulators-ask-large-banks-step-up-support-vanke-sources-say-2024-03-11/" target="_blank">Exclusive: Chinese regulators ask large banks to step up support for Vanke</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-overall-pressure-employment-yet-ease-2024-03-09/" target="_blank">China warns overall pressure on employment yet to ease</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-feb-consumer-prices-rise-07-year-earlier-2024-03-09/" target="_blank">China's consumer prices swing up on seasonal Lunar New Year gains</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions happy with near-zero growth in Japan: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-q4-gdp-revised-up-slight-expansion-economy-avoids-recession-2024-03-11/" target="_blank">Japan Q4 GDP revised up to slight expansion, economy avoids recession</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions say "wait for it…" on upcoming rate cuts: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-rate-cut-coming-not-just-yet-says-governing-councils-kazimir-2024-03-11/" target="_blank">ECB rate cut coming, but not just yet, says Governing Council's Kazimir</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4078125-nasdaq-sp-and-dow" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow ended mixed as attention now shifts to the upcoming CPI report</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4077988-only-two-of-the-mag-7-names-have-outperformed-the-sp-500-since-january-rbc-capital-markets" target="_blank">Only two of the Mag 7 names have outperformed the S&P 500 since January - RBC Capital Markets</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Tuesday, 12 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-slightly-ahead-demand-estimates-2024-03-12/" target="_blank">Oil prices settle slightly down after US boosts crude output forecast</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natgas-output-decline-2024-while-demand-rises-record-high-eia-says-2024-03-12/" target="_blank">US natgas output to decline in 2024 while demand rises to record high, EIA says</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions expected to hold rates steady until starting cuts in June 2024: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-keep-bets-june-first-fed-rate-cut-after-inflation-data-2024-03-12/" target="_blank">Fed seen on hold until June, with rate-cut pace in focus</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions gearing up to end never-ending stimulus: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-offer-guidance-bond-buying-pace-upon-ending-ycc-sources-2024-03-12/" target="_blank">BOJ to offer guidance on bond buying pace upon ending YCC - sources</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-economy-recovering-showing-signs-weakness-says-boj-chief-ueda-2024-03-12/" target="_blank">BOJ chief Ueda slightly tones down optimism on economy</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions thinking about ending Eurozone bank bailout: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-change-how-it-supplies-banks-with-vital-liquidity-2024-03-12/" target="_blank">Explainer: ECB to change how it supplies banks with vital liquidity</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4078308-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones-stock-market-cpi-inflation" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow move up in the wake of the latest retail inflation report</a></li>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Wednesday, 13 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-up-strong-us-demand-fed-signals-focus-2024-03-13/" target="_blank">Oil prices up 3% to 4-month high on US crude stock drop, Russian refinery attacks</a></li>
<li>Bigger stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-booming-air-con-use-lifts-mid-year-power-emissions-maguire-2024-03-13/" target="_blank">China's booming air con use lifts mid-year power emissions</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions to end never-ending stimulus if Japan wage gains are too high: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-views-wage-talks-key-timing-stimulus-exit-ueda-says-2024-03-13/" target="_blank">BOJ to debate ending negative rates in March if wage survey strong - sources</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions thinking about ending Eurozone bank bailout and cutting Eurozone interest rates in spring: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-wean-banks-off-free-cash-gentlest-pace-after-review-2024-03-13/" target="_blank">ECB to wean banks off free cash at gentlest pace</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecbs-villeroy-spring-interest-rate-cut-remains-probable-2024-03-13/" target="_blank">ECB's Villeroy: spring interest rate cut remains probable</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-should-make-bet-rates-before-long-says-wunsch-2024-03-12/" target="_blank">ECB should 'make a bet' on rates before long, says Wunsch</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4079051-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end mixed as Wall Street's bull run takes a breather</a></li>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Thursday, 14 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/gasoline-food-boost-us-producer-prices-february-2024-03-14/" target="_blank">Gasoline, food boost US producer prices in February</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-underpinned-by-us-inventory-data-attacks-russian-refineries-2024-03-14/" target="_blank">Oil prices climb as revised IEA outlook signals tighter market</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-pump-prices-set-jump-refinery-outages-nip-supply-analysts-say-2024-03-14/" target="_blank">US pump prices set to jump as refinery outages nip supply, analysts say</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/measures-china-has-taken-prop-up-its-stock-market-2024-01-23/" target="_blank">China's efforts to prop up its ailing stock market</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/china-cbank-leaves-key-policy-rate-unchanged-expected-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">China c.bank leaves key policy rate unchanged, as expected</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-plan-cut-downpayments-cars-likely-fall-flat-analysts-say-2024-03-14/" target="_blank">China's plan to cut downpayments for cars likely to fall flat, analysts say</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions signal they're finally going to end never-ending stimulus: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-preparing-end-negative-interest-rate-policy-march-meeting-jiji-reports-2024-03-14/" target="_blank">BOJ preparing to end negative interest rate policy at March meeting, Jiji reports</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/boj-go-slow-hiking-rates-after-ending-negative-rates-says-ex-cbank-executive-2024-03-14/" target="_blank">BOJ to go slow in hiking rates after ending negative rates, says ex-c.bank executive</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions thinking about cutting Eurozone interest rates: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecbs-lane-backs-possible-rate-cut-by-june-cnbc-2024-03-14/" target="_blank">ECB policymakers offer contrasting timeline for rate cuts</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-could-cut-rates-least-three-times-june-knot-says-2024-03-14/" target="_blank">ECB could cut rates at least three times from June, Knot says</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4079571-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end in the red, yields surge after hot PPI, weak retail sales</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">Stock rally pauses as US inflation douses rate cut hopes</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Friday, 15 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-consumers-still-reeling-earlier-price-rises-even-inflation-slows-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">US consumers still reeling from earlier price rises even as inflation slows</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/peak-rates-boost-us-demand-riskier-form-corporate-debt-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">Peak rates boost U.S. demand for riskier form of corporate debt</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions reading their tea leaves: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/feds-new-neutral-may-be-one-fomc-takeaway-mike-dolan-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">Fed's new neutral may be one FOMC takeaway</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-feb-new-home-prices-extend-declines-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">China's home prices extend declines despite support measures</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions edging closer to ending never-ending stimulus: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/japan-cusp-ending-its-negative-interest-rates-experiment-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">Japan on cusp of ending negative interest rates, chance of March BOJ exit heightens</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/japans-feb-inflation-likely-quickened-boj-weighs-ditching-negative-rates-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">Japan's Feb inflation likely quickened as BOJ weighs ditching negative rates: Reuters poll</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-unions-will-unveil-results-wage-talks-presaging-shift-central-bank-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">Japan union group announces biggest wage hikes in 33 years, presaging shift at central bank</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions getting serious about thinking about cutting Eurozone interest rates: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-started-discussing-rate-cut-rehn-says-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">ECB started discussing rate cut, Rehn says</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4080070-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow slip on triple witching day; all eyes now on Fed meeting next week</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-nearly-flat-ahead-fed-meet-next-week-2024-03-15/" target="_blank">Wall St drops with tech-related shares, investors assess rate outlook</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
</dl>
<p>The <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow" target="_blank">Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool</a>'s latest estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 (2024-Q1) fell to +2.3% after last week's +2.5% growth projection. </p>
<p>Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "<a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-bull-and-a-bear-riding-a-roller-coaster-together/1-65f75e3a8de0494384b17ecdfd299ed3?id=wuMBgoWDQOBctE%2bBGUM4fQ%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG1.OzF.X3EY9q3MnSefhbY_&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">A bull and a bear riding a roller coaster together, not smiling</a>." </p>
</div>
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</style>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-72095248726436944782024-03-15T06:01:00.021-04:002024-03-15T09:35:47.545-04:00What Separates the NBA's Top and Bottom Teams?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieP0wDkLZIiz9C-_0jqUSnrTMKQY_g5c3u5WFFhUiII-d9HdQI_6dVJb_H_RPyGWDfgCLCPntH7lhY0HWUeBewtF6_p2IOMf0gVLLVUrOPXqK3JuuY_PzK7uRiFOip_rKdudRog_Hx8vWNa0TYQyBwAonO9HBqUEpxYjGyqLVnqix9zmcz36nB/s640/kylie-osullivan-BfaBLVCBTI8-unsplash.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieP0wDkLZIiz9C-_0jqUSnrTMKQY_g5c3u5WFFhUiII-d9HdQI_6dVJb_H_RPyGWDfgCLCPntH7lhY0HWUeBewtF6_p2IOMf0gVLLVUrOPXqK3JuuY_PzK7uRiFOip_rKdudRog_Hx8vWNa0TYQyBwAonO9HBqUEpxYjGyqLVnqix9zmcz36nB/s320/kylie-osullivan-BfaBLVCBTI8-unsplash.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="Brown and Black Basketball photo by Kylie Osullivan on Unsplash - https://unsplash.com/photos/brown-and-black-basketball-ball-BfaBLVCBTI8" title="Brown and Black Basketball photo by Kylie Osullivan on Unsplash" /></a></div>
<p>What separates the top teams in the National Basketball Association from the bottom teams in the league? </p>
<p>If you answered "their scores", you're right. But you might be surprised by how seemingly little difference there is between teams. </p>
<p>The offensive performance of NBA teams can be summarized in a figure known as the <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html" target="_blank">offensive rating</a>. This statistic <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html" target="_blank">combines</a> several different scoring statistics into a single measure that can be used to rank teams. According to the <a href="https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/2024-nba-teams-offensive-rating-rankings" target="_blank">available data at StatMuse</a>, at this point of the NBA's 2023-2024 season, the Boston Celtics have the highest offensive rating of 122.5, while the Detroit Pistons have the lowest at 111.6. If you've been paying attention to the NBA season, that these teams are in their respective positions should sound about right. The Celtics are recognized as a dominant team while the Pistons would be at high risk of being sent down to a lower league if European-style <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2019/06/bring-promotion-and-relegation-to-us.html" target="_blank">relegation</a> existed for U.S. sports leagues. </p>
<p>But as we're about to show, the two teams have some very similar statistics. The data below shows their offensive output on several different categories of scoring for the 2023-2024 season through Sunday, March 9, 2024. </p>
<p style="font-weight: bold; font-size: larger; padding: 4px; background: #e5e1d9; margin-bottom: 0px;">Boston Celtics: </p>
<ul>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;"><b>Points per game (PPG)</b>: 120.8 points per game, most in the NBA. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;"><b>Field Goals Made (FGM)</b>: 43.8 field goals per game, fifth overall and 48.5% of their attempts. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;"><b>Three-Pointers Made (3PM)</b>: 16.2 three-pointers per game, 38.5% of their attempts and best in the NBA. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;"><b>Free Throws Made (FTM)</b>: 17.0 free-throws per game, 80.8% of their attempts, ranking 17th in the NBA. </li>
</ul>
<p style="font-weight: bold; font-size: larger; padding: 4px; background: #e5e1d9; margin-bottom: 0px;">Detroit Pistons: </p>
<ul>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;"><b>Points per game (PPG)</b>: 112.4 points per game, tied for fifth-lowest in the NBA. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;"><b>Field Goals Made (FGM)</b>: 41.9 field goals per game, 47.1% of their attempts and ninth-lowest in the league. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;"><b>Three-Pointers Made (3PM)</b>: 11.3 three-pointers per game, 35.6% of their attempts and second-lowest in the NBA. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;"><b>Free Throws Made (FTM)</b>: 17.3 free-throws per game, 78.4% of free-throws attempted, tenth-lowest among NBA teams. </li>
</ul>
<p>Only 8.4 points per game separates the two teams' overall averages. They are within two baskets per game of each other when considering field goals and free-throws, where they even have very similar shooting percentages. Where they differ most is three-point shots. On average, the Boston Celtics successfully make five more three-point shots per game than the Detroit Pistons do. </p>
<p>That single statistic goes a long way to explaining why the Celtics have the highest offensive rating in the NBA and why the Pistons have the lowest, despite the two teams scoring on 38.5% and 35.6% of their respective three-point attempts. With such a similar percentage of successful attempts, that means the Celtics higher number of successful three-point shots per game is based on their ability to attempt more of these shots than the Pistons are able to. That ability is the key to the Celtics offensive dominance during the 2023-2024 season. </p>
<p>If only there were a great way to visualize that respective dominance. Over at Reddit's r/dataisbeautiful, Solid_Example7519 has put together a <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1ajd73j/nba_heat_map_showing_where_every_team_is_scoring/" target="_blank">fantastic heat map graphic</a> to illustrate how every team in the NBA compares to each other in their ability to score from different parts of the court at about the time of the NBA's All Star Game. We've excerpted the following charts for the Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons to show them next to each other: </p>
<!-- ROW 1: BOSTON CELTICS -->
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<div class="apixcolumn">
<p style="font-weight: bold; font-size: larger; padding: 4px; background: #e5e1d9; margin-bottom: 0px;">Boston Celtics: </p>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrCPmFQstswbmKpLT72RzaCHTgcoB9EQ93kggM0Zh13ba5tx9hO9ZA7P3KDPhzoOf0dZPOXmue8PqqqkJYL9ASZqFTy8g6EXU9ot7v4hlLItOlV_6C-sFaxGe03BU5BnCM6WG7AfYqLaDCnQA98owNMHFeb57EIFU58qCtu9k3B63NEDVGmvxo/s1600/Boston-Celtics-2024.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="338" data-original-width="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrCPmFQstswbmKpLT72RzaCHTgcoB9EQ93kggM0Zh13ba5tx9hO9ZA7P3KDPhzoOf0dZPOXmue8PqqqkJYL9ASZqFTy8g6EXU9ot7v4hlLItOlV_6C-sFaxGe03BU5BnCM6WG7AfYqLaDCnQA98owNMHFeb57EIFU58qCtu9k3B63NEDVGmvxo/s1600/Boston-Celtics-2024.png" alt="Boston Celtics - 2024" title="Boston Celtics - 2024" /></a>
</div>
<div class="apixcolumn">
<p style="font-weight: bold; font-size: larger; padding: 4px; background: #e5e1d9; margin-bottom: 0px;">Detroit Pistons: </p>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuFWaPAp22NFHiZAqBPufjsY-Y4oVDvAqNNJakmn0D9CAje4GGr0cvlZO5XhQFsr2pcllAxOkCB0eu3nvWOAp_2FPy2xOK9vPE4YD3fmpd9nwUz7BCEi8JueA4xhbbOfN7sVwa0eQQr9PmNDzthfXoHOTXn4enVV4zGnXeRFJbVV8rl93GSpn0/s1600/Detroit-Pistons-2024.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="339" data-original-width="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuFWaPAp22NFHiZAqBPufjsY-Y4oVDvAqNNJakmn0D9CAje4GGr0cvlZO5XhQFsr2pcllAxOkCB0eu3nvWOAp_2FPy2xOK9vPE4YD3fmpd9nwUz7BCEi8JueA4xhbbOfN7sVwa0eQQr9PmNDzthfXoHOTXn4enVV4zGnXeRFJbVV8rl93GSpn0/s1600/Detroit-Pistons-2024.png" alt="Detroit Pistons - 2024" title="Detroit Pistons - 2024" /></a>
</div>
</div>
<p>Here's how Solid_Example7519 describes what the data visualization shows: </p>
<blockquote style="background: #e5e1d9; padding: 0em 1em; border: 1px #940022 dotted; border-left: 8px #940022 solid; box-shadow: 2px 2px 10px #cccccc;">
<p>Blue is good, red is bad.... </p>
<p>I calculated how many points every team got in each position on the court and then normalised it using a Z-score (0 means they got an average number of points, a score of 1 is one standard deviation above meaning top 16%, 2 is two standard deviations and means they are in the top 2.5%).... </p>
<p>I filtered it to be only the coordinates where a team scored at least 5 points, and so if there are no points within a hexagon with more than 5 points then it is blank. This was to make it easier to read and draw meaning from i.e. because these empty spots had teams scoring very few points in them, it meant they got a really really low score, while teams only had to score relatively few points to be seen as disproportionately good there.... </p>
<p>It is relative to other teams, so a high z-score on the three-pointer line means that they score more points there relative to other teams. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The individual team charts also emphasize the extent to which the three-point shot affects how professional basketall is played in 2024. The mostly empty hexagonal grids that fall between the key and the three-point line confirm that nearly all teams have bought into the strategy of either going in close to score field goals or shooting from a distance to collect higher points, even though they score less often per attempt. </p>
<p>Comparing Boston to Detroit again, we see the Celtics are highly at the three point line from the left hand side of the court. The Detroit Pistons, on the other hand, are best around the basket itself, but are very weak along the entire arc of the three-point line. </p>
<p>We'll close by pointing again to Solid_Example7519's <a href="https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fbagg28dkrqgc1.png" target="_blank">entire chart</a>, but please do click through to the <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1ajd73j/nba_heat_map_showing_where_every_team_is_scoring/" target="_blank">r/dataisbeautiful post</a> to find out more about how it was generated. </p>
<h3>Previously on Political Calculations</h3>
<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li><a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/10/how-and-when-three-point-shot-changed.html" target="_blank">How and When the Three-Point Shot Changed Basketball</a> </li>
</ul>
<p>Image credits: Brown and Black Basketball photo photo by <a href="https://unsplash.com/@kaost?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash">Kylie Osullivan</a> on <a href="https://unsplash.com/photos/brown-and-black-basketball-ball-BfaBLVCBTI8?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash">Unsplash</a>. <a href="https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fbagg28dkrqgc1.png" target="_blank">NBA 2023-2024 Heat Map</a> by u/Solid_Example7519 on <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1ajd73j/nba_heat_map_showing_where_every_team_is_scoring/" target="_blank">r/dataisbeautiful</a>. Used with permission. </p>
</div>
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</style>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-51726318789137140842024-03-14T06:14:00.001-04:002024-03-14T06:14:00.144-04:00Atmospheric CO2 Increases with Chinese Coal-Fired Emissions<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz1ZtGM7kB3Mipqya_12Fm0YVf5Su_IOFY6W6f6-69NHr6O32qmpvAnxknzt04W2Q26FKae9-8ZUXxt6sQetTPbTkPZPVJAWwOaxCKozrlq8jXBnlq2T1MNfv2hn43aTuPyuesroC7LasegmV3f8RkmnLWy7_wSqquvIh4sMX-_GoQGvE6GCxD/s1024/_88437c71-6504-486c-85cb-7684cbee67e6.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz1ZtGM7kB3Mipqya_12Fm0YVf5Su_IOFY6W6f6-69NHr6O32qmpvAnxknzt04W2Q26FKae9-8ZUXxt6sQetTPbTkPZPVJAWwOaxCKozrlq8jXBnlq2T1MNfv2hn43aTuPyuesroC7LasegmV3f8RkmnLWy7_wSqquvIh4sMX-_GoQGvE6GCxD/s320/_88437c71-6504-486c-85cb-7684cbee67e6.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="A diagram showing a coal power plant emitting carbon dioxide. The power plant has the Chinese characters for 煤 (coal) written on it. Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." title="A diagram showing a coal power plant emitting carbon dioxide. The power plant has the Chinese characters for 煤 (coal) written on it. Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." /></a></div>
<p>The pace at which the concentration of carbon dioxide increases in the Earth's atmosphere rose again for the sixth consecutive month in February 2024. Since last bottoming in February 2023, the trailing twelve month average of the year-over-year change in the parts per million of CO₂ being added to the Earth's air has increased by 58%, rising from 1.89 ppm to 2.98 ppm. Only the months of August and September 2023 have seen a small pause in that otherwise upward trend. </p>
<p>That trend continues to be dictated by China's emissions of carbon dioxide, which is primarily produced by its coal-fired power generation plants. China is, by very large margins, the <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/worldwide-coal-consumption.html" target="_blank">worlds's biggest consumer of coal</a> and the <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/07/chinas-carbon-dioxide-emissions-vs-world.html" target="_blank">world's biggest producer of carbon dioxide emissions</a>. </p>
<p>China's emissions of CO₂ have generally been on the upswing since the nation ended its zero_COVID lockdowns at the end of 2022. Those emissions have generally <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/rising-co-in-air-points-to-china.html" target="_blank">reflected</a> the Chinese economy's performance under China's government's ongoing efforts to stimulate the nation's economy during 2023. </p>
<p>The following chart shows the trends for the increasing emissions of excess carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere from January 2000 through February 2024. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2z-U8IX5guyO_3rmi7IiCtp0bf1uq_LltyT2LuLJPlL1N5glWjvXCuG-2AvxFmG82-ILfbxEhOyeuKHn3DsuuaOx87_Exd2aS8aVovygTKYOm1n3aqOEP6ipwvH5jq_3MWV8IE3YIGET3p_nCH6BmjMHJPwDBi2TM5UrHEUi-oaXG32Xkp3RC/s1600/ttma-yoy-change-ppm-atmo-CO2-200001-202312.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1031" data-original-width="1871" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2z-U8IX5guyO_3rmi7IiCtp0bf1uq_LltyT2LuLJPlL1N5glWjvXCuG-2AvxFmG82-ILfbxEhOyeuKHn3DsuuaOx87_Exd2aS8aVovygTKYOm1n3aqOEP6ipwvH5jq_3MWV8IE3YIGET3p_nCH6BmjMHJPwDBi2TM5UrHEUi-oaXG32Xkp3RC/s1600/ttma-yoy-change-ppm-atmo-CO2-200001-202312.png" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1871px; margin: 10px auto;" alt="Trailing Twelve Month Average Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 2000 - February 2024" title="Trailing Twelve Month Average Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 2000 - February 2024" /></a></div>
<p>China <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/who-made-excess-carbon-dioxide-in.html" target="_blank">remains on track</a> to replace the United States as the world's historically largest emission source of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere before the end of the 2020s. </p>
<p>That accomplishment is likely given that China's <a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Coal-Production-Hit-a-New-Record-High-in-2023.html" target="_blank">internal coal production hit a new record high</a> in 2023 as the country also boosted its imports of coal to support its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-build-hydro-gas-upgrade-coal-fleet-more-flexible-power-system-2024-02-27/" target="_blank">growing appetite</a> for electricity. </p>
<blockquote style="background: #e5e1d9; padding: 0em 1em; border: 1px #940022 dotted; border-left: 8px #940022 solid; box-shadow: 2px 2px 10px #cccccc;">
<p>China continues to rely on coal and coal-fired power generation to meet its growing power demand, and despite being the world's top investor in solar and wind capacity, it also plans a lot of new coal-fired electricity capacity. </p>
<p>During the first half of 2023 alone, China approved <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/China-Has-Approved-More-Than-50-Gigawatts-Of-New-Coal-Power.html" target="_blank">more than 50 GW</a> of new coal power, Greenpeace said in a report this year. That's more than it did in all of 2021, the environmental campaign group said. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>That continuing expansion has real consequences. Earlier this month, China's government <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2024/03/06/china-steps-away-from-2025-energy-efficiency-goal/" target="_blank">backed off</a> its <a href="https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202403/content_6936260.htm" target="_blank">official five-year target</a> for reducing the carbon intensity of its economy. </p>
<blockquote style="background: #e5e1d9; padding: 0em 1em; border: 1px #940022 dotted; border-left: 8px #940022 solid; box-shadow: 2px 2px 10px #cccccc;">
<p>“China is effectively admitting its failure to fulfill the five-year target,” Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society think-tank, told Climate Home. “This year’s target is even more modest than the average rate of reduction needed, while they should be playing catch up.” </p>
<p>Lauri Myllyvirta, a senior fellow at the Asia Society and co-founder of CREA, said that China is “basically admitting defeat” with this “very important metric”. </p>
<p>“The [2.5%] target is completely inadequate to get China back on track towards its 2025 goals,” he added. “It is very alarming that the government is not articulating a plan on how they are going to hit an internationally-pledged target.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>China's coal consumption is now projected to peak in 2026. Assuming China's government doesn't continue to back away from its pledges to reduce its use of coal and other carbon-based fuels. </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [<a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt" target="_blank">Online Data</a>]. Updated 5 March 2024. </p>
<p>Image Credit: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-diagram-showing-a-coal-power-plant-emitting-carb/1-65e92c87a0574fceac4c6e6670513df8?id=steJfgirxkY5u%2f0AsjPItg%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG4.7N3vwmcmJPtkIzFSTpgV&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC&thId=OIG4.7N3vwmcmJPtkIzFSTpgV&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">Microsoft Copilot Designer.</a>. Prompt: "A diagram showing a coal power plant emitting carbon dioxide. The power plant has the Chinese characters for 煤 (coal) written on it." </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-36977211218455347832024-03-13T06:36:00.017-04:002024-03-13T06:36:00.129-04:00Politics and Trade in 2024<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaIm3uaLBYeg4K1ogCiE8MQ3c0-mB3R-qtCF5kLbFByLDHe4PO1JIyOiu0GsyPjoqRwj6QF311Psw2_r6BNYnrCM4TaLaVqFkinysYEFReFZjOY64tdLqNNypbKw6-F__jUMKDGfMb6JZEbqdZQVJpEW9JWE8uND868XWL3qJsH6u67px918x8/s1024/_6d76b743-d685-4278-9f89-ed69f9b9c690.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaIm3uaLBYeg4K1ogCiE8MQ3c0-mB3R-qtCF5kLbFByLDHe4PO1JIyOiu0GsyPjoqRwj6QF311Psw2_r6BNYnrCM4TaLaVqFkinysYEFReFZjOY64tdLqNNypbKw6-F__jUMKDGfMb6JZEbqdZQVJpEW9JWE8uND868XWL3qJsH6u67px918x8/s320/_6d76b743-d685-4278-9f89-ed69f9b9c690.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="Global trade routes Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." title="Global trade routes Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." /></a></div>
<p>The Super-Tuesday presidential primaries have <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/super-tuesday-2024/the-first-big-endorsement-of-the-general-election-107846569?id=107690893" target="_blank">come and gone</a> in the United States. Along with them is any question of which political candidates will collect enough delegates to win their respective major party's nomination for president in the 2024 elections. Barring unforeseen events, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee and Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee. It's going to be an excruciatingly long election season. </p>
<p>The day after Super Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau released its data on the U.S.' international trade for January 2024. That new data gives us an opportunity to compare the trade policies of the two candidates, since Trump served as U.S. President from January 2017 to January 2021 and Biden has served as U.S. President in the period since. </p>
<p>The following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuX7eDIRW6dLQVUd4A4GdykJ2FApow9RzA8C-ewgbXLhfztdS1ecFQ3Lx7yocotNRbdFoIRr__Vpu_usC_q9UP1CpSK4NlD_QW10GB3UCup2g7xSRI3mJ7I35lkg2R7WI8R8MmSyPi78yOAqEdCpU_HVAu2Qanu9eZCosZT4MJKaPSYCzZu8-a/s1600/combined-value-US-exports-to-China-and-imports-from-China-201701-202401.png" target="_blank">chart</a> provides a picture of that history as measured by the value of the goods exchanged between the United States and China from January 2017 through January 2024. Both candidates made trade with China a central part of their respective presidencies and as such, it can tell us a lot about their policies. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuX7eDIRW6dLQVUd4A4GdykJ2FApow9RzA8C-ewgbXLhfztdS1ecFQ3Lx7yocotNRbdFoIRr__Vpu_usC_q9UP1CpSK4NlD_QW10GB3UCup2g7xSRI3mJ7I35lkg2R7WI8R8MmSyPi78yOAqEdCpU_HVAu2Qanu9eZCosZT4MJKaPSYCzZu8-a/s1600/combined-value-US-exports-to-China-and-imports-from-China-201701-202401.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1034" data-original-width="1422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuX7eDIRW6dLQVUd4A4GdykJ2FApow9RzA8C-ewgbXLhfztdS1ecFQ3Lx7yocotNRbdFoIRr__Vpu_usC_q9UP1CpSK4NlD_QW10GB3UCup2g7xSRI3mJ7I35lkg2R7WI8R8MmSyPi78yOAqEdCpU_HVAu2Qanu9eZCosZT4MJKaPSYCzZu8-a/s1600/combined-value-US-exports-to-China-and-imports-from-China-201701-202401.png" alt="Combined Value of U.S. Exports to China and U.S. Imports from China, January 2017 - Januar 2024" title="Combined Value of U.S. Exports to China and U.S. Imports from China, January 2017 - January 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1422px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>As president, both candidates implemented anti-free trade policies focusing on trade between the U.S. and China in particular. Those policies contributed to serious declines in the goods exchanged between to two countries. But in Trump's case, those policies overlapped with 2020's Coronavirus Pandemic, which caused trade between the two countries to fall even further than it <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/02/closing-door-on-us-china-phase-1-trade.html" target="_blank">would otherwise have</a>, which adds a complicating factor to any comparison. </p>
<p>Or does it? What if we directly compared the two declines in trade between the U.S. and China as a percentage of the pre-decline peak recorded during both presidential terms? For Trump, that peak took hold after October 2018, when China's <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2018/04/trade-wars-chinas-madman-retaliation.html" target="_blank">'madman' retaliation</a> against the tariffs Trump had imposed earlier in 2018 impacted the international trade data, but long before the pandemic had any effect. For Biden, the equivalent "Month 0" is October 2022, when he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-aims-hobble-chinas-chip-industry-with-sweeping-new-export-rules-2022-10-07/" target="_blank">announced export restrictions</a> to block China from importing advanced semiconductor technology from the U.S. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeBuFpUDARrIncHhLos3gefOqqQpek3n-g4CqVvvWBbGKW_LyphB0qzgnBtequJ4Fz9cSnepk1a6WSVDR1oD_VTVBbKjmX9dH0RwgqkOvvk9nGigYMmsjvV1_4ajHXateQHGXMB3eGdGeKUktBhOImFskUeIL4Mv1oLR996yHnwxYNDxMQA2nI/s1600/percent-change-US-China-trade-after-trump-biden-trade-policy-changes.png" target="_blank">next chart</a> shows the negative impact resulting from the anti-free trade policies of both presidents, as measured by the percentage change in the trailing twelve month average of the total value of goods exchanged each month between the two countries. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeBuFpUDARrIncHhLos3gefOqqQpek3n-g4CqVvvWBbGKW_LyphB0qzgnBtequJ4Fz9cSnepk1a6WSVDR1oD_VTVBbKjmX9dH0RwgqkOvvk9nGigYMmsjvV1_4ajHXateQHGXMB3eGdGeKUktBhOImFskUeIL4Mv1oLR996yHnwxYNDxMQA2nI/s1600/percent-change-US-China-trade-after-trump-biden-trade-policy-changes.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1034" data-original-width="1873" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeBuFpUDARrIncHhLos3gefOqqQpek3n-g4CqVvvWBbGKW_LyphB0qzgnBtequJ4Fz9cSnepk1a6WSVDR1oD_VTVBbKjmX9dH0RwgqkOvvk9nGigYMmsjvV1_4ajHXateQHGXMB3eGdGeKUktBhOImFskUeIL4Mv1oLR996yHnwxYNDxMQA2nI/s1600/percent-change-US-China-trade-after-trump-biden-trade-policy-changes.png" alt="Combined Value of U.S. Exports to China and U.S. Imports from China, January 2017 - Januar 2024" title="Combined Value of U.S. Exports to China and U.S. Imports from China, January 2017 - January 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1873px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Measured this way, we can identify the point in time at which 2020's coronavirus pandemic would have impacted trade between the two countries, allowing us to visually compare the periods where only the results of the trade policies of the two candidates affected it. The data is clear, President Biden's anti-free trade policies have had a more negative impact than those of President Trump. </p>
<p>It's not just China either. As the <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJSakETJWpXyShnedP-411wwUc8nkmAJFupbuGiV7J54NtWNbE0R9iA1UCpvkviitfjfxNpM5JH2fKYLBGUBcFSbkQMrm-i4yTRrPqjo_CnReqyEMzT9AxEH_5HbXDUYgU9CdsKBvf_e3gUW0OAMBOzJkhymd7YrvMXL3FPDnnjYQ_M3iMo_WO/s1600/combined-value-US-imports-and-exports-total-and-total-without-China-201701-202401.png" target="_blank">final chart</a> shows, trade between the United States and the rest of the world has been much more negative as a result of President Biden's anti-free trade policies than they were under President Trump. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJSakETJWpXyShnedP-411wwUc8nkmAJFupbuGiV7J54NtWNbE0R9iA1UCpvkviitfjfxNpM5JH2fKYLBGUBcFSbkQMrm-i4yTRrPqjo_CnReqyEMzT9AxEH_5HbXDUYgU9CdsKBvf_e3gUW0OAMBOzJkhymd7YrvMXL3FPDnnjYQ_M3iMo_WO/s1600/combined-value-US-imports-and-exports-total-and-total-without-China-201701-202401.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1033" data-original-width="1423" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJSakETJWpXyShnedP-411wwUc8nkmAJFupbuGiV7J54NtWNbE0R9iA1UCpvkviitfjfxNpM5JH2fKYLBGUBcFSbkQMrm-i4yTRrPqjo_CnReqyEMzT9AxEH_5HbXDUYgU9CdsKBvf_e3gUW0OAMBOzJkhymd7YrvMXL3FPDnnjYQ_M3iMo_WO/s1600/combined-value-US-imports-and-exports-total-and-total-without-China-201701-202401.png" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1423px; margin: 10px auto;" alt="Combined Value of U.S. Exports to China and U.S. Imports to World (With and Without China), January 2017 - January 2024" title="Combined Value of U.S. Exports to China and U.S. Imports to World (With and Without China), January 2017 - January 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1422px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Despite Trump's tariff policies, trade between the U.S. and the rest of the world increased during his term in office aside from the period affected by the Coronavirus Pandemic. Under <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery/" target="_blank">President Biden's trade policy</a>, trade between the U.S. and the rest of the world has been shrinking. </p>
<p>We don't plan to wade any deeper into the U.S. political waters of 2024 than we have, except to observe that neither candidate is good on trade and of the two, one has been unquestionably worse than the other. That candidate is not Donald Trump, which is a sentence we never thought we'd ever be writing, but here we are. </p>
<p>We're looking forward to going back to mostly ignoring the already too-long election campaign. </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census Bureau. <a href="http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html" target="_blank">Trade in Goods with China</a>. Last updated: 7 March 2024. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census Bureau. <a href="http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0015.html" target="_blank">Trade in Goods with World, Not Seasonally Adjusted</a>. Last updated: 7 March 2024. </p>
<p>Image Credit: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/global-trade-routes/1-65eb84d02259479589725f6d6752514a?id=LempgUPdMc29GURDm4L7sg%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG2.IfiXlxYYj3d8ENEOdtZn&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">Microsoft Copilot Designer</a>. Prompt: "Global trade routes". </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-34084119627370030392024-03-12T06:18:00.013-04:002024-03-12T06:18:00.138-04:00Sand Piles and Herd Behavior in the Stock Market<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<p>Imagine pouring sand onto a pile, one grain at a time. As the individual particles of sand are added, the pile grows larger, but seems to be otherwise stable. But as time goes by, something changes within that seemingly stable system. Instead of settling on the surface of the pile, adding another grain of sand causes an <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1101.5940.pdf" target="_blank">avalanche</a> as rivers of sand suddenly break loose and rush down the surface of the pile. Kind of like what you see happen in the following <a href="https://youtu.be/S-Dih2w-_fI" target="_blank">short video</a>: </p>
<div style="text-align: center; margin: 10px auto;">
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/S-Dih2w-_fI?si=PipykLldYfPUspho" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen style="max-width: 100%;"></iframe>
</div>
<p>What's happening in this scenario is some very complex and chaotic physics. Millions of individual particles are dynamically interacting with each other to produce this effect after they reach what's called a <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1101.5940.pdf" target="_blank">self-organized criticality</a>. Once they reach this point, instead of acting like a somewhat solid and stable object, the individual grains of stand start moving together and flow like a fluid. That change is called a phase transition and its something of a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1908-6" target="_blank">signature</a> of a system that's affected by quantum dynamics. </p>
<p>Of all the inventions humans have created, the stock market perhaps comes closest to sharing the same quantum-like properties at play in a sand pile. Every day, people engage in millions if not billions of transactions and, when all is going well, the value of their investments rise over time. Metaphorically much like a pile of sand. Until.... </p>
<p>There's a new <a href="https://jfin-swufe.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s40854-023-00540-z.pdf" target="_blank">paper</a>, published earlier this year, that caught our attention because it focused on the quantum-like properties of stock prices to explain why they suddenly break from their stable rising pattern, with investors randomly reacting to new information, and start behaving chaotically instead, with investors rushing for the proverbial exits all at the same time. </p>
<p>Here's an excerpt from the introduction of paper published by Kwangwon Ahn, Linxiao Cong, Hanwool Jang, and Daniel Sungyeon Kim that gets into the work they did to describe that phenomenon using the tools of quantum physics: </p>
<blockquote style="background: #e5e1d9; padding: 0em 1em; border: 1px #940022 dotted; border-left: 8px #940022 solid; box-shadow: 2px 2px 10px #cccccc;">
<p>Stock markets exhibit universal characteristics similar to physical systems with considerable interacting units, for which several microscopic models have been developed (Shalizi 2001; Lux and Marchesi 1999). For example, the return distribution presents pronounced tails that are thicker than those of the Gaussian distribution (Shalizi 2001; Lux 1996; Mantegna and Stanley 1995). Several models have been proposed that phenomenologically show fat-tail distributions induced by investors’ herding behavior (Banerjee 1993; Topol 1991). Furthermore, Cont and Bouchaud (2000), Orĺean (1995), Banerjee (1993), and Topol (1991) showed that market participants’ interactions through imitation can lead to large fluctuations in aggregate demand and heavy tails in the distribution of returns. This approach had been formalized as a power law exponent at the tail of the distribution with a smaller magnitude associated with stronger herding behavior in stock returns (Nirei et al. 2020; Gabaix et al. 2005; Plerou et al. 1999; Gopikrishnan et al. 1999), trading volumes (Gabaix et al. 2006; Gopikrishnan et al. 2000), and commodity returns (Joo et al. 2020), which have been empirically investigated. Another stream of literature theoretically explains the power law in firm size distribution (Ji et al. 2020; Luttmer 2007) and trading volume (Nirei et al. 2020). However, these studies are limited to providing a connection between the power law exponent and other external factors, such as the business cycles and economic uncertainty. </p>
<p>We contribute to literature by explaining the role of economic uncertainty as a bridge between business cycles and investors’ herding behavior. Specifically, we propose a parsimonious model that employs quantum mechanics as an intermediate step to obtain the final solution and justify the power law distribution in stock returns. We start with the Fokker–Planck (FP) equation to model the dynamics of stock return distribution and derive the Schrödinger equation for a particular external potential (Ahn et al. 2017). The form of the potential is postulated based on empirical evidence of the evolution of stock returns in the marketplace. The solution suggests the existence of a power law for the tail distribution of stock returns. This also predicts a positive association between business cycles and the power law exponent. Our model provides new insights into existing research that models stock prices using random walks (Bartiromo 2004; Ma et al. 2004), quantum oscillators (Ahn et al. 2017; Ye and Huang 2008), quantum wells (Pedram 2012; Zhang and Huang 2010), and quantum Brownian motions (Meng et al. 2016). </p>
<p>We provide further empirical evidence on whether herding behavior in stock returns is negatively associated with business cycles. Furthermore, business cycles, which are often used as proxies for economic growth, are closely related to economic uncertainty, whereby it is believed that recessions are accompanied by higher economic uncertainty (Bloom 2014). Moreover, greater economic uncertainty leads to higher levels of uncertainty in the stock market. With greater uncertainty in the stock market, investors are more likely to mimic others because increased information asymmetry leads to fewer investors having confidence in their valuations (Alhaj-Yaseen and Yau 2018; Park and Sabourian 2011; Devenow and Welch 1996), amplifying investors’ herding behavior in the tail. As hypothesized, we find that herding behavior is stronger during recessions than booms and that economic uncertainty causes significant herding behavior. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In normal circumstances, individual investors respond to the random onset of new information and their responses are generally not synchronized with each other. And why would they be? For example, Investor A may be seeking to build their portfolio of dividend stocks to provide income in their near retirement. Meanwhile, Investor B may be focused on investing in growth stocks because it will be years before they retire. Investor C, on the other hand, is excited to speculate and chases after the hottest stocks. Investors D through Z, and millions more, approach their investments differently and, most importantly, mostly at random with respect to each other. </p>
<p>But when recessionary conditions take hold, which have the potential to affect millions simultaneously, the onset of new information associated with that developing state and the decreased certainty of continued stability would appear to prompt investors to act more like a herd, which is one of their two main macro-level findings. </p>
<p>Their other main finding is that applying a quantum model to stock prices can explain the tendency of investors to cluster around the center but also allows for "local" herding among extreme investors. That sounds very much like what you get from a stock market whose variation is best described with a <a href="https://www.randomservices.org/random/special/Levy.html" target="_blank">Lévy stable distribution</a>, which came up when we <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/03/visualizing-volatility-of-s-500.html" targetr="_blank">recently described</a> the day-to-day volatility of the S&P 500 since 3 January 1950. </p>
<p>Going beyond the paper, we should note that such herd behavior doesn't only arise with developing recessionary conditions. <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2008/12/acceleration-amplification-and-shifting.html" target="_blank">Since 2008</a>, we've regularly documented how investors alter the trajectory of the S&P 500 in response to market moving news, such as changes in the expected timing of interest rate changes. These changes arising from the same <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2009/04/how-stock-prices-work.html" target="_blank">phenomenon</a> <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2009/04/math-behind-how-stock-prices-work.html" target="_blank">can drive</a> either rising or falling stock prices depending on other underlying factors. Since many of these changes aren't tied to any significant changes in investor uncertainty, there are still big research opportunities in this area. </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Ahn, K., Cong, L., Jang, H. et al. Business cycle and herding behavior in stock returns: theory and evidence. <cite>Financial Innovation</cite> 10, 6 (2024). DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00540-z" target="_blank">10.1186/s40854-023-00540-z</a>. [<a href="https://jfin-swufe.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s40854-023-00540-z.pdf" target="_blank">PDF Document</a>]. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Helmrich, S., Arias, A., Lochead, G. et al. Signatures of self-organized criticality in an ultracold atomic gas. Nature 577, 481–486 (2020). DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1908-6" target="_blank">10.1038/s41586-019-1908-6</a>. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Julian Léonard et al, Probing the onset of quantum avalanches in a many-body localized system, Nature Physics (2023). DOI: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01887-3" target="_blank">10.1038/s41567-022-01887-3</a>. [Related preprint <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.06959" target="_blank">PDF Document</a>]. </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-67255726373374177202024-03-11T06:13:00.004-04:002024-03-11T06:13:00.128-04:00S&P 500 Looking to Gain Footing Near Record High<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh26K2xIWEzPzMMGZdOZmR_NHDlA7ZEd634K68vd2Jk0sQ5CeOEy6aE8iySEfFcKNTSnUZ1b176rdvKH22tmKE7vU0GnP0MNHF2jkMV404Ij1ggiooPahPIknG6pXZ2e_4L4hTwGz0pT_LqaAudE78jwjNrPr3FK468ZHuiwECZOP8wQzekwtxN/s1024/_53443496-b2ef-4a56-a6dc-4a32a3a37031.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh26K2xIWEzPzMMGZdOZmR_NHDlA7ZEd634K68vd2Jk0sQ5CeOEy6aE8iySEfFcKNTSnUZ1b176rdvKH22tmKE7vU0GnP0MNHF2jkMV404Ij1ggiooPahPIknG6pXZ2e_4L4hTwGz0pT_LqaAudE78jwjNrPr3FK468ZHuiwECZOP8wQzekwtxN/s320/_53443496-b2ef-4a56-a6dc-4a32a3a37031.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="An editorial cartoon of a bull being hoisted by a helicopter just below the top of a tall mountain. The mountain is labeled 'S&P 500'. Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." title="An editorial cartoon of a bull being hoisted by a helicopter just below the top of a tall mountain. The mountain is labeled 'S&P 500'" /></a></div>
<p>The S&P 500 (Index: <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/" target="_blank">SPX</a>) dipped during the first full trading week of March 2024. The index closed out the week at <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1709251200&period2=1709942400&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true" target="_blank">5,123.69</a>, a little less than 0.3% below where it ended the previous week. </p>
<p>Never-the-less, the index did manage to eke out a new record high close of 5,157.36 on Thursday, 7 March 2024. That high came in response to strong signals from Fed officials that they will indeed act to cut interest rates later in 2024. Investors currently expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in the U.S. in June 2024 to address a slowing economy. In that action, the Fed will be lagging behind the example of the European Central Bank, which is expected to begin cutting its interest rates to address the weak Eurozone economy as early as later this month. </p>
<p>The Fed's confirmation followed last week's <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/03/s-500-rises-as-fed-hints-at-new-qe.html" target="_blank">hint</a> from Fed officials that they plan to implement a new kind quantitative easing-style program to provide some relief from elevated interest rates, which had pushed the index up to its previous record high close on Friday, 1 March 2024. </p>
<p>In the latest <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja8Hsyt1bBuVfTq2bGEoYIEXNwqLb30GfuePlKx9jYAKFkpjp2C4u7etR4sIFdzev02AxJ0cKVEWY85SlC5Gt5v8Hgl6F-RD7a1IVjPU42XOE5NhbNiOwL5SEh5a2yRVYm62ilSoroZqq7HmCyga5dNPvUV2yhXaxiVbS7RLh9o0iXdDw1jO8I/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20240221-20240329-focus-2024Q2-snapshot-20240308.png" target="_blank">update</a> to the alternative futures chart, we find the trajectory of the S&P 500 is still running in the upper half of the latest redzone forecast range. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja8Hsyt1bBuVfTq2bGEoYIEXNwqLb30GfuePlKx9jYAKFkpjp2C4u7etR4sIFdzev02AxJ0cKVEWY85SlC5Gt5v8Hgl6F-RD7a1IVjPU42XOE5NhbNiOwL5SEh5a2yRVYm62ilSoroZqq7HmCyga5dNPvUV2yhXaxiVbS7RLh9o0iXdDw1jO8I/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20240221-20240329-focus-2024Q2-snapshot-20240308.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja8Hsyt1bBuVfTq2bGEoYIEXNwqLb30GfuePlKx9jYAKFkpjp2C4u7etR4sIFdzev02AxJ0cKVEWY85SlC5Gt5v8Hgl6F-RD7a1IVjPU42XOE5NhbNiOwL5SEh5a2yRVYm62ilSoroZqq7HmCyga5dNPvUV2yhXaxiVbS7RLh9o0iXdDw1jO8I/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20240221-20240329-focus-2024Q2-snapshot-20240308.png" alt="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 8 Mar 2024" title="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 8 Mar 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 910px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>That forecast range assumes investors will remain closely focused on 2024-Q2 in setting the level of the index, which aligns with investor expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts starting in June 2024. </p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Monday, 4 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-after-opec-extends-output-cuts-2024-03-04/" target="_blank">Oil settles lower on weak demand despite OPEC+ cut extension</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-corporate-debt-euphoria-could-stall-fed-tightens-liquidity-2024-03-04/" target="_blank">US corporate debt euphoria could stall as Fed tightens liquidity</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions says in no hurry to cut rates: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-bostic-no-urgency-cut-interest-rates-given-us-economys-strength-2024-03-04/" target="_blank">Fed's Bostic: No urgency to cut interest rates given US economy's strength</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-services-activity-growth-momentum-softens-feb-caixin-pmi-shows-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">China's services activity growth momentum softens in Feb, Caixin PMI shows</a></li>
</ul>
<li>JapanGov minions thinking it's time to admit years of deflation are over: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-government-considers-declaring-end-deflation-kyodo-2024-03-04/" target="_blank">Japan government considers calling end to deflation, Kyodo reports</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4075598-dow-sp-and-nasdaq-ended-with-limited-moves-while-yields-bumped-higher" target="_blank">Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq ended lower while yields bumped up</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-03-04/" target="_blank">US stocks end lower ahead of Powell, jobs data; bitcoin surges</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Tuesday, 5 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-extends-fall-chinas-pledge-transform-economy-fails-impress-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">Oil falls 1% on concerns over China's economic growth plan</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-banks-far-more-exposed-than-europeans-property-crunch-says-morgan-stanley-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">US banks far more exposed than Europeans to property crunch, says Morgan Stanley</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-services-sector-cools-february-ism-survey-shows-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">US services sector slows in February; inflation moderating</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-targets-2024-gdp-growth-around-5-government-work-report-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">China vows to 'transform' economy, sets ambitious growth target</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-li-vows-more-support-property-market-stuck-doldrums-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">China's Li vows more support for property market stuck in the doldrums</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-aims-self-reliance-tech-vows-open-manufacturing-foreign-investors-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">China aims for self-reliance in tech; vows to open manufacturing to foreign investors</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions get more data saying they should end never-ending stimulus, face reckoning with the zombies it created: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-seeing-signs-positive-wage-momentum-says-senior-official-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">Japan seeing signs of positive wage momentum, says senior official</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/japan-faces-reckoning-with-its-zombie-companies-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">Japan faces a reckoning with its zombie companies</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4076132-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain" target="_blank">Wall Street's bull run falters as Nasdaq, S&P, Dow notch worst day since mid-February</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-ease-ahead-economic-data-megacap-growth-stocks-slide-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">Tech-heavy Nasdaq leads Wall Street lower as megacaps, chips slide</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-hovers-near-3-month-peak-eyes-powells-testimony-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">Mounting US rate cut bets fuel gold to record highs</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/view-bitcoin-rises-record-high-2024-03-05/" target="_blank">Instant view: Bitcoin rises to record high</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Wednesday, 6 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-fell-slightly-china-growth-worries-clash-with-output-cuts-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">Oil prices up 1% on small build in US crude stocks, Fed rate cut remarks</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-private-payrolls-rise-slightly-less-than-expected-february-adp-report-shows-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">US labor market steadily easing as job openings, resignations decline</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions say rate cuts are coming, but probably fewer: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-set-election-year-stage-with-testimony-rate-cuts-inflation-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">Fed's Powell still expects rate cuts, but inflation progress "not assured"</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-dont-expect-soft-landing-victory-lap-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">Fed's Powell: Don't expect a soft landing victory lap</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-kashkari-sees-two-rate-cuts-most-this-year-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">Fed's Kashkari sees two rate cuts at most this year</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-step-up-economic-policy-adjustments-2024-state-planner-says-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">China's 5% growth target for 2024 achievable, state planner says</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/can-china-maintain-growth-transform-its-economy-same-time-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">Can China maintain growth and 'transform' its economy at the same time?</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-exports-likely-slowed-jan-feb-factories-struggle-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">China's exports likely slowed in Jan-Feb as factories struggle</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Data likely to push BOJ minions into ending never-ending stimulus soon: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-sees-growing-momentum-towards-march-end-negative-rates-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">Japan sees growing momentum towards March end to negative rates</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4076683-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones-powell-testimony?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end higher after Fed chair Powell's testimony yields no surprises</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-gain-ahead-powells-testimony-economic-data-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">Wall Street indexes advance as Fed's Powell fuels hopes for rate cuts this year</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-holds-above-2100-near-record-high-focus-powell-testimony-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">Gold extends record run as rate cut bets gain ground</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4076919-powells-comfort-aside-golds-record-run-could-signal-central-banks-inflation-fear" target="_blank">Powell's comfort aside, gold's record run could signal central banks' inflation fear</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Thursday, 7 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-layoffs-reach-highest-since-last-march-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">US layoffs reach highest since last March</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-edge-higher-after-us-stocks-build-less-than-expected-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">Oil prices nearly flat as market weighs Chinese demand, North America supply increase</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-bank-profits-drop-44-q4-big-firms-cover-failed-bank-costs-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">U.S. bank profits drop 44% in Q4 as big firms cover failed bank costs</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/regional-banks-face-big-hurdles-year-after-svb-collapse-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">Regional banks face big hurdles a year after SVB collapse</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>Fed minion claims Fed "not far" from rate cuts, but note "remotely close" to digital currency: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-says-aware-policy-risks-workers-cuts-depend-inflation-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">Fed's Powell: "Not far" from confidence needed to cut rates</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/powell-says-fed-not-remotely-close-central-bank-digital-currency-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">Powell says Fed not "remotely close" to a central bank digital currency</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-set-election-year-stage-with-testimony-rate-cuts-inflation-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">Fed's Powell still expects rate cuts, but inflation progress "not assured"</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-bowman-not-yet-ready-rate-cuts-willing-hike-again-if-needed-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">Fed's Bowman: "Not yet" ready for rate cuts, willing to hike again if needed</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-mester-still-sees-rate-cuts-later-this-year-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">Fed's Mester still sees rate cuts later this year</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Global growth signs developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-jan-feb-trade-beats-forecasts-signals-global-trade-rebound-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">China's exports top forecasts as global demand returns</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-growth-target-achievable-if-backed-by-more-stimulus-analysts-say-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">China growth target achievable if backed by more stimulus, analysts say</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions inching closer to ending never-ending stimulus: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-board-member-nakagawa-signals-conviction-over-price-goal-achievement-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">BOJ's growing confidence in prices, wages shifts focus to March meeting</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions signal rate cuts coming to Eurozone in June 2024: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ecb-hold-rates-take-baby-steps-towards-first-cut-2024-03-06/" target="_blank">ECB lays ground for June rate cut as inflation falls</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-cuts-growth-inflation-projections-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">ECB cuts growth, inflation projections</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4077299-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones-powell-testimony" target="_blank">S&P closes at new record high while Nasdaq, Dow also rise ahead of jobs report</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-index-error-may-have-sparked-turbulence-morgan-stanley-pfizer-shares-traders-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">S&P index error may have sparked turbulence in Morgan Stanley, Pfizer shares, traders say</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Friday, 8 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-up-worlds-top-consumers-boost-demand-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">Oil dips 1%, posts weekly loss as markets weigh Chinese demand</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-gets-another-reason-not-rush-rate-cuts-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">US job market data bolsters Fed's 'no rush' rate cut view</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-accelerates-february-unemployment-rate-rises-39-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">US labor market cooling; unemployment rate rises to two-year high of 3.9%</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minion says interest rates aren't affecting economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-williams-neutral-rate-is-likely-still-low-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">Fed's Williams: Neutral rate is likely still low</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Mixed economic signs developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-february-new-yuan-loans-seen-retreating-record-high-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">China's February new yuan loans seen retreating from record high</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-cnooc-makes-100-million-ton-oilfield-discovery-south-china-sea-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">China's CNOOC makes 100 million ton oilfield discovery in South China Sea</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-ev-sales-slow-january-february-competition-intensifies-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">China EV sales slow in January-February; price-cutting intensifies</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions getting excited to end never-ending stimulus later this month: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-leaning-toward-exiting-negative-rates-march-sources-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">BOJ leaning toward exiting negative rates in March - sources</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions getting excited to cut Eurozone interest rates: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-policymakers-line-up-behind-upcoming-rate-cut-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">ECB policymakers line up behind upcoming rate cut</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/markets-see-clearer-ecb-rate-cut-roadmap-inflation-fog-lifts-2024-03-07/" target="_blank">Markets see clearer ECB rate-cut roadmap as inflation fog lifts</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/some-ecb-policymakers-float-back-to-back-june-july-cuts-sources-say-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">Exclusive: Some ECB policymakers float back-to-back June, July cuts, sources say</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-steady-before-key-payrolls-test-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">Wall Street slips from records with Nasdaq leading declines</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-eyes-best-week-five-months-ahead-us-jobs-data-2024-03-08/" target="_blank">Gold marches higher as US jobs data boosts bets of early rate cut</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
</dl>
<p>The CME Group's <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank">FedWatch Tool</a> continues to project the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 12 June 2024 (2024-Q2), unchanged from last week. The Fed is expected to begin a series of quarter point rate cuts starting on that date, continuing into mid-2025 at six-to-twelve week intervals. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow" target="_blank">Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool</a>'s latest estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 (2024-Q1) bumped up to +2.5% after last week's +2.1% projection. </p>
<p>Image Credit: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/an-editorial-cartoon-of-a-bull2c-being-hoisted-by-a/1-65ecd76d396145df91a7165851aa7f77?id=AIou7Y8tIKtgYj4T5s6dCw%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG1.rMiXTMqBbJTljSHuVebu&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">Microsoft Copilot Designer</a>. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a bull being hoisted by a helicopter just below the top of a tall mountain. The mountain is labeled 'S&P 500'." </p>
</div>
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</style>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-33828449586135755972024-03-08T05:44:00.007-05:002024-03-08T05:44:00.130-05:00Inventions in Everything: The Oreometer<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRDEc-nfrxKwggG_8kpgXkTjV1O31HnpLHN-WkQpKyTpZwhmkNIn5Zejkt6CNYAOfpwTf-kJXlL064BXKmodd9H0bMH1j5kfx7qcY9b1oJNlpHf_X_5kY1eZL-mRLqfBNciBkBPeF7Bvt7AeYz73VzEYteNM64ie9m0YP6_Zh7JGifO8Co8RnG/s960/suveer-bhat-ifQsu0zh2Pw-unsplash.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="180" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRDEc-nfrxKwggG_8kpgXkTjV1O31HnpLHN-WkQpKyTpZwhmkNIn5Zejkt6CNYAOfpwTf-kJXlL064BXKmodd9H0bMH1j5kfx7qcY9b1oJNlpHf_X_5kY1eZL-mRLqfBNciBkBPeF7Bvt7AeYz73VzEYteNM64ie9m0YP6_Zh7JGifO8Co8RnG/s320/suveer-bhat-ifQsu0zh2Pw-unsplash.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="Clear drinking glass with milk and cookies photo by Suveer Bhat on Unsplash - https://unsplash.com/photos/clear-drinking-glass-with-milk-and-cookies-ifQsu0zh2Pw" title="Clear drinking glass with milk and cookies photo by Suveer Bhat on Unsplash" /></a></div>
<p>Ever since the National Biscuit Company <a href="https://historycooperative.org/who-invented-oreos/" target="_blank">launched</a> what would become its most famous and popular product in 1912, materials scientists had been consumed by a "burning" question. Is it possible to twist the halves of an Oreo cookie so that its rich creme filling shears in half and sticks to each delicious chocolate wafer of the sandwich cookie when it is pulled apart? </p>
<p>It took eleven decades, but a team of MIT scientists <a href="https://www.cnet.com/science/mit-scientists-reveal-the-best-way-to-twist-open-an-oreo-cookie/" target="_blank">finally cracked</a> the problem wide open in 2022. They discovered the answer to that question is no, it is not possible. They discovered that because the creme filling of an Oreo sandwich cookie is "mushy", it is "very difficult to get it to stick to both sides when you twist one apart." </p>
<p>Or as MIT's Crystal Owens describes it, "what actually happens is the creme almost always comes of one side." </p>
<p>What made this incredible scientific discovery possible was the scientists invention of a device that could reliably apply a twisting force evenly on the halves of an Oreo cookie to measure how much torsion was applied before it split apart. Their specialized, unpatented innovation is called "The Oreometer". The following <a href="https://youtu.be/V_gaJ4po_Nw" target="_blank">short video</a> illustrates both what it is and how it works: </p>
<div style="text-align: center; margin: 10px auto;">
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/V_gaJ4po_Nw" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen style="max-width: 100%;" style="max-width: 100%;"></iframe>
</div>
<p>The device is intriguing in part because it doesn't require any electricity or utilize any electronic gages to either operate or measure the amount of torque applied to the Oreo cookie being twisted apart. </p>
<p>Because of their use of this invention in their research, the MIT researchers <a href="https://pubs.aip.org/aip/pof/article/34/4/043107/2844774/On-Oreology-the-fracture-and-flow-of-milk-s" target="_blank">identified</a> why the creme filling of an Oreo doesn't shear in half when the cookie is twisted, but instead tends to stick to just one of the chocolate wafers that make up the sandwich cookie. </p>
<blockquote style="background: #e5e1d9; padding: 0em 1em; border: 1px: #940022 dotted; border-left: 8px #940022 solid; box-shadow: 2px 2px 10px #cccccc;">
<p>Through a series of experiments with a laboratory rheometer used to hold whole Oreo cookies, we determined that creme distribution upon cookie separation by torsional rotation is not a function of rate of rotation, creme “stuf” (i.e., filling height <b>H</b>) level, or flavor, but was mostly determined by the preexisting level of adhesion between the cookie creme and each wafer. In most cases, creme delaminated from the wafer with a preferential orientation with respect to the package within any one box, allowing prediction of failure direction with 80% accuracy. Despite the consistent failure mode, there was some amount of cookie-to-cookie and box-to-box variation in failure stress and strain. Apparent reflow of creme due to unknown causes had the most significant effect in altering failure type, allowing for improved creme–wafer bonds and subsequent cohesive failure of the creme, splitting nearly evenly between the two wafers. Failure mechanics further allowed us to classify the creme texture as “mushy.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In less scientific language, the mushy creme filling is less likely to stick to the chocolate wafer being twisted than it is to either split or shear within itself because of the applied torque. This characteristic is why twisting an Oreo sandwich cookie most often results in most of the creme filling remaining attached to one of the chocolate wafers but not the other when they are twisted apart. </p>
<p>That, as they say in science, is a result! Not to mention a finding made possible by a special purpose invention developed to support the rheologists' research. </p>
<h3>From the Inventions in Everything Archives</h3>
<p>Amazingly, the IIE team has previous featured another Oreo-related innovation, one also designed to perform a very specific task in which the parts of the sandwich cookie are separated from each other: </p>
<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li><a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2013/03/inventions-in-everything-oreo-separator.html" target="_blank">Inventions in Everything: The Oreo Separator Machine</a> </li>
</ul>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Crystal E. Owens, Max R. Fan, A. Johhn Hart, and Gareth H. McKinley. On Oreology, the fracture and flow of "milk's favorite cookie". <cite>Physics of Fluids</cite> 34, 043107 (2022). DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0085362" target="_blank">10.1063/5.0085362</a>. </p>
<p>Image credit: Photo by <a href="https://unsplash.com/@photoberry77?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash">Suveer Bhat</a> on <a href="https://unsplash.com/photos/clear-drinking-glass-with-milk-and-cookies-ifQsu0zh2Pw?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash">Unsplash</a>. </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-42851126320111375362024-03-07T05:25:00.013-05:002024-03-07T05:25:00.132-05:00Visualizing the Volatility of the S&P 500<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaDLcU-rV3zllBjzx6zqY_-UUsUjTw1s1fUb11BClXvW_Z4WMXZpW8115xjZLbo2HxRgEsPtDCdEUCwCfnoG8gW5YkgNCwiFHdfoIkQNu0v3Rl3gZa2I47w_YFCmaW3wSAQCPIdjGO01v8F1FGJBcWGxYIdjK4M0cGVQNojlwWlLE88fgDVzBE/s1024/_fe95ef60-1614-42e0-aa05-2407b2e445d3.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaDLcU-rV3zllBjzx6zqY_-UUsUjTw1s1fUb11BClXvW_Z4WMXZpW8115xjZLbo2HxRgEsPtDCdEUCwCfnoG8gW5YkgNCwiFHdfoIkQNu0v3Rl3gZa2I47w_YFCmaW3wSAQCPIdjGO01v8F1FGJBcWGxYIdjK4M0cGVQNojlwWlLE88fgDVzBE/s320/_fe95ef60-1614-42e0-aa05-2407b2e445d3.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="A stock price candlestick chart with positive and negative changes image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." title="A stock price candlestick chart with positive and negative changes image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." /></a></div>
<p>The S&P 500 (Index: <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/" target="_blank">SPX</a>) is sometimes very volatile. But much more often, it is not. </p>
<p>That characteristic is driven home in our <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzz2_9l_EoWzNKYPXZ5nitocpFiO8eP7wBbDDoUgrJMo3bFYxrBZWxJNZ70_x6oyDtRGd-k4iYEbV_iKgEa5gva9H6VE6SjMV6hgSjDUoc29b8XyTLwFPwoAOfSLqHJk821IQcah8GghSKsIFzxxxR3MDURbB6lkNNXvhXCedP2K5cit1uL861/s1600/SP500-daily-volatility-19500103-20240301.png" target="_blank">chart</a> tracking the day-to-day percentage change in the S&P 500 in the modern era for the U.S. stock market. </p>
<p>Here, we can see that over the past 18,661 trading days for which we have data, the average day-to-day change in the S&P 500 is +0.04%. We can also see that the index has changed from its previous trading day's closing value by 0.99% (one standard deviation) or less on 79.1% of all the trading days from 3 January 1950 through 1 March 2024. </p>
<p>When we expand that range of trading day-to-day volatility out to two standard deviations, or daily changes of a little under 2% or less from the mean, we find that 95.4% of daily percentage changes in the index fall within that wider range. By statistical definition, things get more interesting when we look at trading day-to-day changes that are bigger than that. But even so, we find 98.6% of the daily volatility of the S&P 500 falls within a limit of three standard deviations of the mean daily change. </p>
<p>Of the 18,661 trading days for which we have data, we find just 122 (0.65%) where the S&P 500 increased by more than three standard deviations and 140 (0.75%) where the decreased by more than three standard deviations with respect to the mean daily change. </p>
<p>We also can see that larger volatility tends to happen in clusters, with big negative changes and big positive changes in close proximity to each other. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzz2_9l_EoWzNKYPXZ5nitocpFiO8eP7wBbDDoUgrJMo3bFYxrBZWxJNZ70_x6oyDtRGd-k4iYEbV_iKgEa5gva9H6VE6SjMV6hgSjDUoc29b8XyTLwFPwoAOfSLqHJk821IQcah8GghSKsIFzxxxR3MDURbB6lkNNXvhXCedP2K5cit1uL861/s1600/SP500-daily-volatility-19500103-20240301.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1033" data-original-width="1872" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzz2_9l_EoWzNKYPXZ5nitocpFiO8eP7wBbDDoUgrJMo3bFYxrBZWxJNZ70_x6oyDtRGd-k4iYEbV_iKgEa5gva9H6VE6SjMV6hgSjDUoc29b8XyTLwFPwoAOfSLqHJk821IQcah8GghSKsIFzxxxR3MDURbB6lkNNXvhXCedP2K5cit1uL861/s1600/SP500-daily-volatility-19500103-20240301.png" alt="S&P 500 Daily Volatility, 3 January 1950 - 1 March 2024" title="S&P 500 Daily Volatility, 3 January 1950 - 1 March 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1872px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>As for the best and worst days recorded by the S&P 500 index over this period, the worst negative day of trading was a 20.5% decline on 19 October 1987, in a market event now known as Black Monday 1987. </p>
<p>The best positive day was a 11.6% increase on 13 October 2008, which occurred in a cluster of volatility that, on the whole, was negative because it coincided with the collapse of the U.S. automotive industry during the "Great Recession" of 2008-09 and its associated stock market crash. </p>
<p>Perhaps the most interesting characteristic of the S&P 500 is the concentration of day-to-day changes in its value that fall within one standard deviation of the mean. If the day-to-day variation of the index were accurately described by a <a href="https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/normal-distributions/" target="_blank">normal Gaussian distribution</a>, we would expect to see around 68.2% of all changes within that range. Instead, there are far more small changes than would be expected if that hypothesis held. At the same time, there are more "large" changes that would be expected if a normal distribution applied, which is what market analysts mean when they describe stock prices as having "<a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-63643-2_9" target="_blank">fat tails</a>". </p>
<p>Both these properties are characteristics of a <a href="https://www.randomservices.org/random/special/Levy.html" target="_blank">Lévy Distribution</a>, which is another kind of stable distribution. </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Yahoo! Finance. S&P 500 Historical Data. [<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history" target="_blank">Online Database</a>]. Accessed 2 March 2024. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Volker Ziemann. Bubbles, Crashes, Fat Tails and Lévy-Stable Distributions. <cite>Physics and Finance</cite>. pp 113-143. DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63643-2_9" target="_blank">10.1007/978-3-030-63643-2_9</a>. 19 January 2021. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Takumi Fukunaga and Ken Umeno. Universal Lévy’s stable law of stock market and its characterization. [ArXiv Preprint: <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.06279.pdf" target="_blank">PDF Document</a>.] 20 February 2018. </p>
<p>Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-stock-price-candlestick-chart-with-positive-and-/1-65e39895cb1945edb5c00a7c6c02c348?id=%2b4sihwDqo41DQ08cXYpp7w%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG1.YUewbjfZRyY9.VM3Hab.&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">A stock price candlestick chart with positive and negative changes</a>". </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-49893317113602011392024-03-06T05:37:00.009-05:002024-03-06T05:37:00.125-05:002024 Starts With New Home Prices Out of Reach for Typical American Household<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgxv1pTy-uY7M7CtQT5Ku-90fq3cWFd2LVAcPTcIHn_jFBn4fx-2AMVpVHZ2SeE_K8Cy-TWGFKb06QcB7_24ftmiGEseHcdWNJFQ-OFqwP68q7PmDxK2fvu5lvgdeAAJh804K9ugAlFAB6ly3ewh-J-9Mwik-e1lMPQtJI6XSDPYEkHQeR94Zf/s1200/mortgage01-lg.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgxv1pTy-uY7M7CtQT5Ku-90fq3cWFd2LVAcPTcIHn_jFBn4fx-2AMVpVHZ2SeE_K8Cy-TWGFKb06QcB7_24ftmiGEseHcdWNJFQ-OFqwP68q7PmDxK2fvu5lvgdeAAJh804K9ugAlFAB6ly3ewh-J-9Mwik-e1lMPQtJI6XSDPYEkHQeR94Zf/s320/mortgage01-lg.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="Mortgage Application Form by Nick Youngson</a>/Alpha Stock Images on Picserver.org - https://www.picserver.org/m/mortgage01.html" title="Mortgage Application Form by Nick Youngson</a>/Alpha Stock Images on Picserver.org" /></a></div>
<p>2024 has started where 2023 left off when it comes to the state of how affordable new homes are in the United States. With the typical new home sold out of affordable reach for the typical American household. </p>
<p>There are three data points that come together to determine how affordable a new home being sold in the U.S. is for a typical U.S. household: </p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal;">
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;">The median price of a new home sold during the month. For January 2024, the U.S. Census Bureau reported its initial estimate of the median price of a new home sold in January 2024 is <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales_202401.pdf" target="_blank">$420,700</a>. This figure is considered to be the price of a typical new home sold, because half of all new homes sold in the U.S. cost their new homeowners more than this amount, while half cost less. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;">The median income of an American household represents the middle point for the income distribution of households in the United States. For January 2024, our estimate of median household income for January 2024 is <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/03/median-household-income-in-january-2024.html" target="_blank">$77,283</a>. Since our affordability analysis has been developed using our estimates, we'll be using this figure in the following analysis. This figure is very close to Motio Research's estimate of <a href="https://motioresearch.com/household-income-series/" target="_blank">$77,397</a>, which is based on data collected as part of the U.S. Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. Motio Research began providing their monthly estimates in November 2023. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;">The average interest rate for a conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in January 2024 is 6.64%. This estimated monthly mortgage rate is taken as the average of weekly 30-year conventional mortgage rates <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/" target="_blank">reported by Freddie Mac</a> during the month. Data for the median monthly conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is not available. </li>
</ol>
<p>For our affordability analysis, we're using this information to find the monthly payment taken out at the average 30-year mortgage rate to cover the entire price of the median new home sold in January 2024. We then divide that figure by the monthly equivalent of the median household income, which gives us the percentage of that typical household income that would be consumed to pay for the cost of the typical new home sold in the U.S. </p>
<p>The following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHovEfPGyx8orxOWMlpoudn0gY-xglYo4HDuhQoK93sEtv6WvqBbY-lDF01KlEA20VkbpZU8urIFrByTXtG3nOQ_L3hH6j6D469xvGMxDHDGFtfSV46WmkCRTCwka3CzvHkWous1w3u9NIuqWcnYZ24gBUNs6_AnK-QLZc26uWBFfGNeyKvNO/s1600/mortgage-payment-for-median-new-home-as-percent-of-median-household-income-200001-202401.png" target="_blank">chart</a> visualizes the results of that math from January 2000 through January 2024. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHovEfPGyx8orxOWMlpoudn0gY-xglYo4HDuhQoK93sEtv6WvqBbY-lDF01KlEA20VkbpZU8urIFrByTXtG3nOQ_L3hH6j6D469xvGMxDHDGFtfSV46WmkCRTCwka3CzvHkWous1w3u9NIuqWcnYZ24gBUNs6_AnK-QLZc26uWBFfGNeyKvNO/s1600/mortgage-payment-for-median-new-home-as-percent-of-median-household-income-200001-202401.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1033" data-original-width="1422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHovEfPGyx8orxOWMlpoudn0gY-xglYo4HDuhQoK93sEtv6WvqBbY-lDF01KlEA20VkbpZU8urIFrByTXtG3nOQ_L3hH6j6D469xvGMxDHDGFtfSV46WmkCRTCwka3CzvHkWous1w3u9NIuqWcnYZ24gBUNs6_AnK-QLZc26uWBFfGNeyKvNO/s1600/mortgage-payment-for-median-new-home-as-percent-of-median-household-income-200001-202401.png" alt="Mortgage Payment for a Median New Home as a Percentage of Median Household Income, January 2000 - January 2024" title="Mortgage Payment for a Median New Home as a Percentage of Median Household Income, January 2000 - January 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1422px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>For January 2024, the cost of paying a mortgage for the typical new home sold in the United States would consume 41.9% of the income of a typical American household. This figure is well above the 28% mortgage debt-to-income ratio and 36% total debt-to-income ratio thresholds that <a href="https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/what-percent-of-income-should-go-to-mortgage/" target="_blank">mortgage lenders set for borrowers</a> to ensure they are capable of supporting their mortgage payments. </p>
<p>The mortgage payment for a median new home sold has consistently exceeded the 28% basic affordability threshold since February 2021 and the higher 36% affordability threshold since March 2022. </p>
<p>Doing some back-of-the-envelope math, we estimate a household with an annual income of $90,000 or more in January 2024 could afford the mortgage payment for the median new home sold in the U.S., assuming that was their only debt, per the 36% debt-to-income ratio. A household with an annual income exceeding $115,700 would be able to afford the median new home sold in January 2024 at the 28% threshold. </p>
<p>We anticipate next month will be more challenging for new home affordability as mortgage rates rose during February 2024. </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [<a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/sold_cust.xls" target="_blank">Excel Spreadsheet</a>]. Accessed 26 February 2024. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [<a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/usprice_cust.xls" target="_blank">Excel Spreadsheet</a>]. Accessed 26 February 2024. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971. [<a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/" target="_blank">Online Database</a>]. Accessed 1 February 2024. Note: Starting from December 2022, the estimated monthly mortgage rate is taken as the average of weekly 30-year conventional mortgage rates recorded during the month. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Political Calculations. Median Household Income in December 2023. [<a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/03/median-household-income-in-january-2024.html" target="_blank">Online article</a>]. 1 March 2024. </p>
<p>Image Credit: <a href="https://www.picserver.org/m/mortgage01.html" target="_blank">Mortgage Application Form</a> by <a href="http://www.nyphotographic.com/" target="_blank">Nick Youngson</a>/<a href="http://alphastockimages.com/" target="_blank">Alpha Stock Images</a> on Picserver.org. Creative Commons <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/" target="_blank">CC-BY-SA 3.0</a>. </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-45064932438312968582024-03-05T05:15:00.004-05:002024-03-05T05:15:00.130-05:00Dividends by the Numbers in February 2024<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcQjliXzaJia44Tdgu3-tNEIhbgpJgyqmO2Gp1--vVrxk20sXJqaL2rZMSCTfTuW9kcSY69knpXl32r5Mt5UwTu7lV-_I-vGbozzQgJfbSN3irwd9oDP4LoAZYXp2YyajdgMl-PJ3v6ED6WHTRqNmnZhjFajdVDkKCICuSxVaszUVaubGRxA/s640/640px-Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcQjliXzaJia44Tdgu3-tNEIhbgpJgyqmO2Gp1--vVrxk20sXJqaL2rZMSCTfTuW9kcSY69knpXl32r5Mt5UwTu7lV-_I-vGbozzQgJfbSN3irwd9oDP4LoAZYXp2YyajdgMl-PJ3v6ED6WHTRqNmnZhjFajdVDkKCICuSxVaszUVaubGRxA/s320/640px-Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg" alt="Bull and bear in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange by the sculptor Reinhard Dachlauer" title="Bull and bear in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange by the sculptor Reinhard Dachlauer" style="display: block; padding: 4px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" /></a></div>
<p>Over the past year, stock market dividends have consistently featured two major themes when their year-over-year changes are measured. </p>
<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;">A falling number of dividend decreases. This is a positive trend, suggesting growing strength among dividend-paying companies. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;">A falling number of dividend increases. This is a negative trend that indicates growing weakness in the market. </li>
</ul>
<p>These mixed signals have continued once again in February 2024. Here's our <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdO1BPXpY8pVWfrYOZQJcoFN_K19DCMXSGUTSua17OQsOeBuPLd2Jkr6ZfKYTj4YQeGOEgAOaT6J8xXVIoO2x9BdtGo4TczJlFPACSl_I8DT81vAPTbpMA-BiOicRNXxQuc2xqXkYted86ZWPT9UE1Y-2425e7jnSuWjT60gTZzMAHDyOtkdF4/s1600/number-public-US-firms-increasing-or-decreasing-their-dividends-each-month-200401-202402.png" target="_blank">chart</a> tracking the number of U.S. publicly trading companies that have either increased or decreased their dividends each month, spanning the last two decades. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdO1BPXpY8pVWfrYOZQJcoFN_K19DCMXSGUTSua17OQsOeBuPLd2Jkr6ZfKYTj4YQeGOEgAOaT6J8xXVIoO2x9BdtGo4TczJlFPACSl_I8DT81vAPTbpMA-BiOicRNXxQuc2xqXkYted86ZWPT9UE1Y-2425e7jnSuWjT60gTZzMAHDyOtkdF4/s1600/number-public-US-firms-increasing-or-decreasing-their-dividends-each-month-200401-202402.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1034" data-original-width="1422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdO1BPXpY8pVWfrYOZQJcoFN_K19DCMXSGUTSua17OQsOeBuPLd2Jkr6ZfKYTj4YQeGOEgAOaT6J8xXVIoO2x9BdtGo4TczJlFPACSl_I8DT81vAPTbpMA-BiOicRNXxQuc2xqXkYted86ZWPT9UE1Y-2425e7jnSuWjT60gTZzMAHDyOtkdF4/s1600/number-public-US-firms-increasing-or-decreasing-their-dividends-each-month-200401-202402.png" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1422px; margin: 10px auto;" alt="Number of Public U.S. Firms Increasing or Decreasing Their Dividends Each Month, January 2004 through February 2024" title="Number of Public U.S. Firms Increasing or Decreasing Their Dividends Each Month, January 2004 through February 2024" /></a></div>
<p>So which is it? Well, if we use the year-over-year change in the number of firms declaring they will pay an extra, or special, dividend to their shareholding owners as a tiebreaker, we're going to have to come down on February 2024 being a negative month for dividend paying stocks. That's because this number fell in February 2024, which is an unfavorable change. </p>
<p>We've tallied the February 2024's dividend metadata in the follwing table, presenting both Month-over-Month (MoM) and Year-over-Year (YoY) changes: </p>
<table cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 style="text-align: center; margin: 10px auto; border: 1px #000000 solid;">
<tr style="background: #003B1F;">
<th COLSPAN=6 style="padding: 4px; text-align: center; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF; font-size: large;">Dividend Changes in February 2024</th>
</tr>
<tr style="background: #0F5935;">
<th style="padding: 4px; text-align: center; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF;"> </th>
<th style="padding: 4px; text-align: center; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF;"> Feb-2024</th>
<th style="padding: 4px; text-align: center; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF;"> Jan-2024</th>
<th style="padding: 4px; text-align: center; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF;"> MoM</th>
<th style="padding: 4px; text-align: center; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF;"> Feb-2023</th>
<th style="padding: 4px; text-align: center; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF;"> YoY</th>
</tr>
<tr style="background: #FFFFFF;">
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">Total Declarations</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">5,386</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">3,120</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">2,266 <span style="000000;">▲</span></td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">5,186</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">200 <span style="000000;">▲</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background: #76B295;">
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">Favorable</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">396</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">200</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">196 <span style="000000;">▲</span></td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">539</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">-143 <span style="FF0000;">▼</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background: #FFFFFF;">
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;"> - Increases</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">305</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">154</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">151 <span style="000000;">▲</span></td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">424</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">-119 <span style="FF0000;">▼</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background: #FFFFFF;">
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;"> - Special/Extra</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">90</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">46</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">44 <span style="000000;">▲</span></td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">111</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">-21 <span style="FF0000;">▼</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background: #FFFFFF;">
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;"> - Resumed</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">1</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">0</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">1 <span style="000000;">▲</span></td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">4</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">-3 <span style="FF0000;">▼</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background: #76B295;">
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">Unfavorable</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">21</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">15</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">6 <span style="000000;">▲</span></td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">100</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted; font-weight: bold;">-79 <span style="FF0000;">▼</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background: #FFFFFF;">
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;"> - Decreases</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">21</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">15</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">6 <span style="000000;">▲</span></td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">100</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">-79 <span style="FF0000;">▼</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="background: #FFFFFF;">
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;"> - Omitted/Passed</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">0</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">0</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">0 <span style="999999;">◀▶</span></td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">0</td>
<td style="padding: 4px; text-align: right; border-bottom: 1px #CCCCCC dotted;">0 <span style="999999;">◀▶</span></td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>Focusing on just dividend decreases reported during the month, our sampling of these declarations identified 15 of the 21 announced reductions. Here's the list: </p>
<ul style="list-style-type: square; -moz-column-count: 2; -moz-column-gap: 40px; -webkit-column-count: 2; -webkit-column-gap: 40px; column-count: 2; column-gap: 40px;">
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4067124-jbg-smith-properties-declares-0_175-dividend" target="_blank">JBG SMITH Properties (REIT-Office)</a> (Variable) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sbr" target="_blank">JBGS</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SBR/dividends/history" target="_blank">Sabine Royalty Trust</a> (Variable) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/chkr" target="_blank">SBR</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4063106-chesapeake-granite-wash-trust-dividend-declines-by-363-to-00214" target="_blank">Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust</a> (Fixed) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/kref" target="_blank">CHKR</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4063500-kkr-real-estate-finance-trust-inc-declares-missing-dividend" target="_blank">KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (REIT-Mortgage)</a> (Variable) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/tpg" target="_blank">KREF</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4065986-tpg-cuts-dividend-by-about-8-to-044-a-share" target="_blank">TPG Inc.</a> (Fixed) (NASDAQ: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/jbgs" target="_blank">TPG</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTR/dividends/history" target="_blank">Mesa Royalty Trust</a> (Variable) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/crt" target="_blank">MTR</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4070146-ares-commercial-real-estate-corporation-declares-missing-dividend" target="_blank">Ares Commercial Real Estate (REIT-Mortgage)</a> (Fixed) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/iff" target="_blank">ACRE</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4069390-international-flavors--fragrances-slashes-dividend-by-about-51-040-a-share" target="_blank">International Flavors & Fragrances</a> (Hybrid) ( NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/pxd" target="_blank">IFF</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4070260-pioneer-natural-resources-dividend-declines-by-20-to-256?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain%7Csection%3Adividend-stocks" target="_blank">Pioneer Natural Resources</a> (Fixed) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/nem" target="_blank">PXD</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4070254-newmont-corporation-declares-missing-dividend" target="_blank">Newmont</a> (Fixed) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/acre" target="_blank">NEM</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4071977-great-ajax-corp-declares-0_10-dividend" target="_blank">Great Ajax (REIT-Mortgage)</a> (Fixed) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sho" target="_blank">AJX</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRT/dividends/history" target="_blank">Cross Timbers Royalty Trust</a> (Fixed) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ajx" target="_blank">CRT</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4072979-big-5-sporting-goods-corporation-declares-missing-dividend" target="_blank">Big 5 Sporting Goods (Retail)</a> (Variable) (NASDAQ: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/mtr" target="_blank">BGFV</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4067124-jbg-smith-properties-declares-0_175-dividend" target="_blank">JBG SMITH Properties (REIT-Office)</a> (Fixed) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/bgfv" target="_blank">JBGS</a>) </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHO/dividends/history" target="_blank">Sunstone Hotel (Lodging)</a> (Fixed) (NYSE: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/rily" target="_blank">SHO</a>) </li>
</ul>
<p>Five of February 2024's sampling are variable dividend paying firms from the oil and gas sector, whose number falls below the threshold of ten for these firms that would indicate distress in that industry. It is better described as consistent with the typical background noise we see in this sector that follows with the month-to-month volatility of oil prices. </p>
<p>Four of these firms are Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). This represents the ongoing fallout from the Federal Reserve's 2022-2023's interest rate hikes that is impacting this sector, which has mainly impacted mortgage REITs, but which is expanding to impact the commercial real estate sector. </p>
<p>Rounding out the sample, we find two firms from the financial services industry, one chemical producer, one mining firm, one lodging provider, and one retailer. </p>
<p>Before we close, we have one last observation. Starting in 2018, the month of February has marked the annual peak for announced dividend increases. Absent a major development, the 305 dividend increases recorded in February 2024 will almost certainly be the high water mark for the year. </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [<a href="https://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-market-attributes-web-file.xlsx?force_download=true" target="_blank">Excel Spreadsheet</a>]. 1 March 2024. </p>
<p><b>Image Credit</b>: <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg" target="_blank">Wikimedia Commons</a>. <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" target="_blank">Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0)</a>. </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-60752439620886784742024-03-04T05:12:00.027-05:002024-03-04T05:12:00.137-05:00S&P 500 Rises as Fed Hints at New QE<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHiaxKunfTZcCV2mxSFxH28o2CG8Y8bep0hRUTK8AoK9scPsqOFBtGdfJHLBGCSz4dO9ctqbGNDVGkfmIvR1TYLGOBeMR18DwE3K23JCFgjluh6EClJUa2CKUIvv5a2izzs8a6Q7KfwnE9sCzeTW_6LYiF8DlH6zgaoAEm5dTDdHfV4qh3lzeV/s1024/223114_An%20editorial%20cartoon%20of%20a%20Federal%20Reserve%20official-giving-free-money-to-US-stock-market.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="240" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHiaxKunfTZcCV2mxSFxH28o2CG8Y8bep0hRUTK8AoK9scPsqOFBtGdfJHLBGCSz4dO9ctqbGNDVGkfmIvR1TYLGOBeMR18DwE3K23JCFgjluh6EClJUa2CKUIvv5a2izzs8a6Q7KfwnE9sCzeTW_6LYiF8DlH6zgaoAEm5dTDdHfV4qh3lzeV/s320/223114_An%20editorial%20cartoon%20of%20a%20Federal%20Reserve%20official-giving-free-money-to-US-stock-market.png" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="Editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official giving away free money to traders at the U.S. stock market. Image generated with Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta, modified with text." title="Editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official giving away free money to traders at the U.S. stock market." /></a></div>
<p>For a week that was otherwise shaping up to see stock prices drift sideways to lower, the unexpected news the Fed is weighing a new policy that would potentially reduce short term interest rates helped push the S&P 500 (Index: <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/" target="_blank">SPX</a>) to a new high on Friday, 1 March 2024. The index rose a little over 1% above where it closed the previous Friday to close out the week at
<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1708646400&period2=1709337600&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true" target="_blank">5,137.08</a>. </p>
<p>Almost all of that upward movement happened on Friday, 1 March 2024 after the Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240301a.htm" target="_blank">hinted</a> at the 2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum that he wanted to Fed to boost its holdings of shorter-term U.S. Treasuries. The move represents a new kind of quantitative easing, which would have the effect of lowering short term yields on U.S. Treasuries and, by extension, other short term interest rates linked to them. </p>
<p>The prospect of lower interest rates is positive for stocks, particularly for firms that rely on debt to finance their growth. Stock prices reacted by jumping upward after having been mostly flat-to-lower during the earlier part of the week. The latest update of the <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVk2jtuSHnXkGAvA_HcWHE1FIZjIZ5l_zB4ElWAyEbv3r9xTXEpP-wQPIiGKvB0ytbIzf0NuFL_RgL08HLvmj4_iWEm1HoYTG-Nd6COkkd2Yn8iTOZ4T3FY2nkxdrtyHggnZ-kd1EruMIYsBSg7gARGL1WNIniDo6j3CEx9x_YqCyv4I19T-DT/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20240221-20240329-focus-2024Q2-snapshot-20240301.png" target="_blank">alternative futures chart</a> shows the change with the trajectory of the S&P 500 moving up toward the upper end of the recently added redzone forecast range. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVk2jtuSHnXkGAvA_HcWHE1FIZjIZ5l_zB4ElWAyEbv3r9xTXEpP-wQPIiGKvB0ytbIzf0NuFL_RgL08HLvmj4_iWEm1HoYTG-Nd6COkkd2Yn8iTOZ4T3FY2nkxdrtyHggnZ-kd1EruMIYsBSg7gARGL1WNIniDo6j3CEx9x_YqCyv4I19T-DT/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20240221-20240329-focus-2024Q2-snapshot-20240301.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVk2jtuSHnXkGAvA_HcWHE1FIZjIZ5l_zB4ElWAyEbv3r9xTXEpP-wQPIiGKvB0ytbIzf0NuFL_RgL08HLvmj4_iWEm1HoYTG-Nd6COkkd2Yn8iTOZ4T3FY2nkxdrtyHggnZ-kd1EruMIYsBSg7gARGL1WNIniDo6j3CEx9x_YqCyv4I19T-DT/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20240221-20240329-focus-2024Q2-snapshot-20240301.png" alt="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 1 Mar 2024" title="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 1 Mar 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 910px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Other things happened to influence the trajectory of stock prices during the week that was. Here's a summary of the week's market moving headlines: </p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Monday, 26 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-extends-losses-early-asian-trade-2024-02-26/" target="_blank">Oil gains over $1 on possible shipping disruptions</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-miss-expectations-january-2024-02-26/" target="_blank">US new home sales rise less than expected in January</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions say rate cuts only delayed, still coming: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-williams-rate-cuts-likely-appropriate-later-this-year-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">Fed's Williams says rate cuts likely to happen 'later this year'</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-schmid-no-need-preemptively-cut-rates-2024-02-27/" target="_blank">Fed's Schmid: No need to 'preemptively' cut rates</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4071847-dow-sp-and-nasdaq-end-lower-while-treasury-yields-pushed-higher" target="_blank">Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq ended lower while Treasury yields pushed up</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/slam-dunk-treasury-trade-becomes-test-patience-yields-march-higher-2024-02-26/" target="_blank">'Slam dunk' Treasury trade becomes test of patience as yields march higher</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Tuesday, 27 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-durable-goods-orders-fall-more-than-expected-january-2024-02-27/" target="_blank">US durable goods orders slump; business investment on equipment appears soft</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/crude-edges-higher-supply-concerns-shipping-disruptions-continue-2024-02-27/" target="_blank">Oil rises more than $1/bbl as OPEC+ mulls extending output cuts</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-annual-home-prices-rising-despite-fourth-quarter-slowdown-fhfa-says-2024-02-27/" target="_blank">US annual home prices rising despite fourth-quarter slowdown, FHFA says</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions 'cautious' plan to hold rates high carries risk for distressed regional banks: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hawkish-fed-impedes-regional-banks-efforts-shed-cre-risks-2024-02-27/" target="_blank">Hawkish Fed impedes regional banks' efforts to shed CRE risks</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-bowman-says-she-will-stay-cautious-monetary-policy-2024-02-27/" target="_blank">Fed's Bowman says she will stay 'cautious' on monetary policy</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions get data telling them to end never-ending stimulus: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-inflation-beats-forecasts-end-negative-rates-still-sight-2024-02-27/" target="_blank">Japan's inflation beats forecasts, end of negative rates in sight</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions worrying about Eurozone banks not making more loans</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-lending-stagnates-recovery-remains-elusive-ecb-2024-02-27/" target="_blank">Euro zone lending stagnates as recovery remains elusive - ECB</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4072344-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow remain rangebound in run-up to key inflation data this week</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4673807-entire-market-chasing-one-stock" target="_blank">This Is Nuts - An Entire Market Chasing One Stock</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Wednesday, 28 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-ease-us-crude-stock-build-fuels-demand-fears-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Oil falls 1% on Fed rate cut caution and stocks build</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/supply-still-matters-why-us-housing-inflation-relief-may-be-short-lived-2024-02-28/" target="_blank">Why US housing inflation relief may be short-lived</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions say more 'work' needed to lower inflation: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-williams-still-ways-go-achieve-2-inflation-goal-2024-02-28/" target="_blank">Fed's Williams sees more work needed to get inflation back to 2%</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/feds-collins-repeats-it-is-likely-rate-cuts-will-begin-this-year-2024-02-28/" target="_blank">Fed's Collins repeats it is 'likely' rate cuts will begin this year</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-country-garden-faces-winding-up-petition-failure-pay-2045-mln-loan-2024-02-28/" target="_blank">Country Garden liquidation petition adds to China's property woes</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/country-garden-how-bad-are-its-debt-problems-2024-02-28/" target="_blank">Country Garden: How bad are its debt problems?</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-feb-factory-activity-likely-contracted-fifth-month-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">China's Feb factory activity likely contracted for fifth month</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4073267-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones-bitcoin?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_news%7Cline%3A1" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end lower a day ahead of key inflation data</a></li>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Thursday, 29 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-ease-us-crude-stock-build-fuels-demand-fears-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Oil inches down as US inflation data, rising OPEC output weigh</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e9a3dd8f-574a-45fb-b60f-12fd1ac5cd93" target="_blank">US inflation eases to 2.4%, according to Federal Reserve’s target index</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-increases-line-with-expectations-january-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Services drive US prices higher in January; inflation gradually cooling</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions expected to start cutting rates in June 2024, thinking about what to do next with balance sheet: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-rate-cut-seen-track-june-even-inflation-bumps-up-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Fed policymakers look past 'bumpy' inflation toward rate cuts</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-rate-cut-seen-track-june-even-inflation-bumps-up-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Fed rate cut seen on track for June even as inflation bumps up</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-goolsbee-policy-restrictive-more-disinflation-likely-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Fed's Goolsbee: policy 'restrictive,' more disinflation likely</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-balance-sheet-endgame-may-play-out-over-longer-than-expected-horizon-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Fed's balance sheet endgame may play out over a longer-than-expected horizon</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Mixed growth signs developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-firms-step-up-hiring-tight-fisted-pay-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Chinese firms step up hiring, but tight-fisted on pay</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in Japan: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-january-factory-output-falls-75-mm-2024-02-28/" target="_blank">Japan factory output falls at the fastest pace in nearly 4 years</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minion says it's time to end never-ending stimulus: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bojs-takata-calls-overhaul-ultra-loose-monetary-policy-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">BOJ policymaker calls for overhaul of ultra-loose monetary policy</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions get inflation data push to start rate cuts sooner, will probably wait until June: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/dip-euro-zone-inflation-bolsters-case-ecb-easing-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Euro zone inflation dips but stubborn core prices may worry ECB</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/dip-euro-zone-inflation-bolsters-case-ecb-easing-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Dip in euro zone inflation bolsters case for ECB easing</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-cut-rates-june-economists-split-risk-around-timing-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">ECB to cut rates in June, but economists split on risk around timing</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecb-keep-floor-under-market-rates-with-eye-demand-sources-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Exclusive: ECB to keep floor under market rates but with eye on demand</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-ease-caution-prevails-ahead-inflation-data-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">S&P, Nasdaq close higher as inflation data tightens rate cut view</a></li>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Friday, 1 March 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-construction-spending-unexpectedly-falls-january-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">US construction spending unexpectedly falls in January</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-sector-struggling-recover-ism-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">US manufacturing contracts further, rays of light on the horizon</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-gaza-deaths-complicate-ceasefire-talks-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">Oil climbs 2%, notches weekly gains ahead of OPEC+ decision</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-bank-crisis-looms-deposit-outflows-accelerated-last-week-loan-volumes-stagnate" target="_blank">US Bank Crisis Looms As Deposit Outflows Accelerated Last Week, Loan Volumes Stagnate</a></li>
<li>Fed minions 'optimistic' inflated prices here to stay as inflation slows while looking forward to rate cuts, signals new Quantitative Easing: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-rate-cut-seen-track-june-even-inflation-bumps-up-2024-02-29/" target="_blank">Fed policymakers look past 'bumpy' inflation toward rate cuts</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-kugler-optimistic-disinflation-without-big-job-losses-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">Fed's Kugler 'optimistic' on disinflation without big job losses</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-barkin-i-still-see-wage-inflation-pressures-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">Fed's Barkin: I still see wage, inflation pressures</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240301a.htm" target="_blank">Fed's Waller: Thoughts on Quantitative Tightening, Including Remarks on the Paper "Quantitative Tightening around the Globe: What Have We Learned?"</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/qt-not-quite-paint-drying-having-little-impact-so-far-research-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">QT not quite "paint drying," but having little impact so far -research</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-logan-fed-will-feel-its-way-balance-sheet-limit-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">Fed's Logan: Fed will feel its way to balance sheet limit</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in China (and world because of China): </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-feb-factory-activity-shrinks-5th-month-adding-pressure-economy-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">China's factory activity shrinks for 5th month, raises pressure for more stimulus</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/wrapup-asias-factories-struggle-growth-japan-falters-china-unsteady-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">Global factories struggle for growth as China demand remains weak</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4074774-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_news%7Cline%3A1" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P 500 kick off March with new record highs, Dow also advances</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-rallies-first-day-march-after-fed-hints-next-qe" target="_blank">'Everything' Rallies On First Day Of March After Fed Hints At Next 'QE'</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-muted-after-rally-ai-boost-inflation-relief-2024-03-01/" target="_blank">S&P 500, Nasdaq close at fresh records on AI boost, easing yields</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
</dl>
<p>The CME Group's <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank">FedWatch Tool</a> still projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 12 June 2024 (2024-Q2), unchanged from last week. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow" target="_blank">Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool</a>'s latest estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 (2024-Q1) dropped to +2.1% after clocking in at +2.9% two weeks ago. </p>
<p>Image credit: <a href="https://beta.dreamstudio.ai/generate" target="_blank">Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta</a>. Prompt: "Editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official giving away free money to traders at the U.S. stock market." </p>
</div>
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</style>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-26411821367701589892024-03-01T05:25:00.036-05:002024-03-01T05:25:00.132-05:00Median Household Income in January 2024<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiy8ixTTU2Yl-EzDAR2vPLPHWSqFWzPoXrtulJJ82PQmkASGTfTiIfJvyPTGBqz2koJyXE6B1fEMvZBctDgzC8N7iMLv87EabNfkvddG8WQFS3KhvvJ0amA-D5gYGn9yFX9jFO1hVwS5V89Ltg84XO3DmNCUvqD8moWre09nBBZYDByDyEVigd/s1024/_1a8854f9-10c6-49de-b503-1bbbac5c00d5.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="180" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiy8ixTTU2Yl-EzDAR2vPLPHWSqFWzPoXrtulJJ82PQmkASGTfTiIfJvyPTGBqz2koJyXE6B1fEMvZBctDgzC8N7iMLv87EabNfkvddG8WQFS3KhvvJ0amA-D5gYGn9yFX9jFO1hVwS5V89Ltg84XO3DmNCUvqD8moWre09nBBZYDByDyEVigd/s320/_1a8854f9-10c6-49de-b503-1bbbac5c00d5.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="A couple who are both getting paychecks from working very different jobs. Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." title="A couple who are both getting paychecks from working very different jobs. Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." /></a></div>
<p>Median household income in the United States rose to start 2024, reversing the small decline recorded in December 2023. </p>
<p><a href="https://motioresearch.com/household-income-series/" target="_blank">Motio Research</a>'s estimate of median household income in January 2024 is $77,397, rising by by $346 (+0.4%) from the firm's initial estimate of <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/median-household-income-in-december-2023.html" target="_blank">$77,051</a> for December 2023. </p>
<p>Motio Research presents its median household income data in the form of an index that incorporates seasonal and inflation adjustments. Its U.S. Real Median Household Income Index has risen in all but one month since bottoming in May 2023. </p>
<p>That upward trend can be seen in the following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMoZmBd2J11hC2DXIuO9mKO6th3NK2lehGaB-4BzB8yt4UOf8qQS1San_8JPP5hiFnjcju6z8NEVo7o8tZvfyoln2nMTnJdWSASuMhSAds3ET4_-Icq9Ug-kTrZPGqCEKZWEjiqBnitXYPRkHYK2PDqCgsKxk_-JZCjbp7DEK1bN9nxgAdEy0A/s1600/Motio-Research-monthly-series-of-US-Household-Income-Data-201001-thru-202401-snapshot-20240213.png" target="_blank">screenshot</a> of Motio Research's <a href="https://motioresearch.com/household-income-series/" target="_blank">interactive chart</a> presenting the evolution of this index from January 2010 through January 2024: </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMoZmBd2J11hC2DXIuO9mKO6th3NK2lehGaB-4BzB8yt4UOf8qQS1San_8JPP5hiFnjcju6z8NEVo7o8tZvfyoln2nMTnJdWSASuMhSAds3ET4_-Icq9Ug-kTrZPGqCEKZWEjiqBnitXYPRkHYK2PDqCgsKxk_-JZCjbp7DEK1bN9nxgAdEy0A/s1600/Motio-Research-monthly-series-of-US-Household-Income-Data-201001-thru-202401-snapshot-20240213.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="721" data-original-width="1001" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMoZmBd2J11hC2DXIuO9mKO6th3NK2lehGaB-4BzB8yt4UOf8qQS1San_8JPP5hiFnjcju6z8NEVo7o8tZvfyoln2nMTnJdWSASuMhSAds3ET4_-Icq9Ug-kTrZPGqCEKZWEjiqBnitXYPRkHYK2PDqCgsKxk_-JZCjbp7DEK1bN9nxgAdEy0A/s1600/Motio-Research-monthly-series-of-US-Household-Income-Data-201001-thru-202401-snapshot-20240213.png" alt="Screenshot of Motio Research U.S. Real Median Household Income Index (MHII) from January 2010 through January 2024" title="Screenshot of Motio Research U.S. Real Median Household Income Index (MHII) from January 2010 through January 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1001px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>The January 2024 index value of 112.8 puts it at the same level it was in December 2020. </p>
<h3>Analyst's Notes</h3>
<p>Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research. Our initial estimate of median household income in January 2024 using our <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/comparing-median-household-income.html" target="_blank">alternate</a> <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2018/06/april-2018-median-household-income.html" target="_blank">methodology</a> is $77,283, which is $261 (+0.3%) higher than our <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/median-household-income-in-december-2023.html" target="_blank">initial estimate of $77,022</a> for December 2023. Our January 2024 estimate is $114 below Motio Research's initial estimate for the month. </p>
<p>The latest update to Political Calculations' <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij4_OjxmC0VuJzUa62BDM4kUNW86KuTS363w-P6iX4sMis0uOAot9bc1wA8ZCCuhUPR7SWrBAu9VBGOWzcv-T09JvtBTBxUgB0kh-lezAtpgYNBTw93xExNnLOHOZNeqSM6_eJ9ujcajxr4PbKg5wzx00Xox4qKBhkoRlKS-8HLIa9Lvjpxgdw/s1600/median-household-income-in-21st-century-200001-202401.png" target="_blank">chart</a> tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through January 2024. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant January 2024 U.S. dollars. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij4_OjxmC0VuJzUa62BDM4kUNW86KuTS363w-P6iX4sMis0uOAot9bc1wA8ZCCuhUPR7SWrBAu9VBGOWzcv-T09JvtBTBxUgB0kh-lezAtpgYNBTw93xExNnLOHOZNeqSM6_eJ9ujcajxr4PbKg5wzx00Xox4qKBhkoRlKS-8HLIa9Lvjpxgdw/s1600/median-household-income-in-21st-century-200001-202401.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1033" data-original-width="1422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij4_OjxmC0VuJzUa62BDM4kUNW86KuTS363w-P6iX4sMis0uOAot9bc1wA8ZCCuhUPR7SWrBAu9VBGOWzcv-T09JvtBTBxUgB0kh-lezAtpgYNBTw93xExNnLOHOZNeqSM6_eJ9ujcajxr4PbKg5wzx00Xox4qKBhkoRlKS-8HLIa9Lvjpxgdw/s1600/median-household-income-in-21st-century-200001-202401.png" alt="Median Household Income in the 21st Century: Nominal and Real Modeled Estimates, January 2000 to January 2024" title="Median Household Income in the 21st Century: Nominal and Real Modeled Estimates, January 2000 to January 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1422px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Focusing on the blue, inflation-adjusted data in the chart, we find the purchasing power of the $77,283 income earned by the typical American household in January 2024 remains about 2.4% below where it stood in January 2021. In that month, median household income was $67,121, which works out to be the equivalent of $79,171 in terms of constant January 2024 U.S. dollars. Our estimates show a rising trend for the inflation-adjusted median household income in the months since September 2023. </p>
<p>The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis made modest upward adjustments in the aggregate income estimates we use in crafting our median household income estimates for each of the previous six months. The amount of the adjustments ranged from a low of +0.13% (July and November 2023) to a high of +0.25% (September 2023). </p>
<div style="border-color: #978576; background-color: #F4F1EC; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 8px; border-style: dotted dotted dotted solid; padding: 0em 1em;"><p><b>For the latest in our coverage of median household income in the United States, <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/search/label/median%20household%20income#.YpEvi-7MKUk" target="_blank">follow this link</a>!</b></p> </div>
<h3>References </h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/POPTHM.txt" target="_blank">Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)</a>]. Last Updated: 29 February 2024. Accessed: 29 February 2024. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/A576RC1.txt" target="_blank">Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)</a>]. Last Updated: 29 February 2024. Accessed: 29 February 2024. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. [<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/CPIAUCNS.txt" target="_blank">Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)</a>]. Last Updated: 13 February 2024. Accessed: 13 February 2024. </p>
<p>Image Credit: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-couple-who-are-both-getting-paychecks-from-worki/1-65db8e2b17334b4e84642be4cedde148?id=9F9%2fwX9dQDmnjZlnpdZw0g%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG3.ra4zl3bwxJu1lJu4jZo2&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">Microsoft Copilot Designer.</a>. Prompt: "A couple who are both getting paychecks from working very different jobs." </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-15101857996417366672024-02-29T05:14:00.013-05:002024-02-29T05:14:00.297-05:00Happy Leap Year!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<p>Every four years, we celebrate Leap Day as the shortest month of February gets extended by an extra day and we have to cope with the idea that 29 February is just like any other day. </p>
<p>That's an inaccurate statement, because there are years where you would think there might be a 29 February inserted into the calendar, but isn't. Those are years that can be divided evenly by 100 and the next time that 29 February will be left out of the calendar after a four year interval will be in 2100. </p>
<p>But that's not quite right either, because there are plans to insert a 29 February into the calendar for 2400. And every 400 years after that. </p>
<p>It's all very complicated, but fortunately in the leap year of 2016, Matt Parker took the time to not only <a href="https://youtu.be/qkt_wmRKYNQ" target="_blank">explain why 29 February keeps getting added to the calendar</a> when it does and why it doesn't when you think it should, but also how to fix it so calendars make more sense. </p>
<div style="text-align: center; margin: 10px auto;">
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qkt_wmRKYNQ?si=EXgK40QkSO_NKYk9" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen style="max-width: 100%;"></iframe>
</div>
<p>Glad to have that all sorted! Now if we can just get him working on fixing daylight savings time. </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-56624910594410877362024-02-28T05:12:00.025-05:002024-02-28T05:12:00.131-05:00Market Cap of U.S. New Homes Decreases to Start 2024<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGPCavVIOGfRORxxWPYMFdc9oyk-lSGShdb-BZ6ye9tzn7MpB0k-wV9BTbPhjBmpsZuE9CDQehUcjbtRkquaddQLtxc3VL5rzNeZ53IrG-lTuB3nnvw38FHGS3_987TzyPKGmjaGkTMaqS-CK593C-ABCN2Kp6BZYSeP43Qh8zQsG09RmtfDf0/s1024/3629_A%20photograph%20of%20a%20new%20home%20that%20is%20under%20construct_xl-1024-v1-0.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGPCavVIOGfRORxxWPYMFdc9oyk-lSGShdb-BZ6ye9tzn7MpB0k-wV9BTbPhjBmpsZuE9CDQehUcjbtRkquaddQLtxc3VL5rzNeZ53IrG-lTuB3nnvw38FHGS3_987TzyPKGmjaGkTMaqS-CK593C-ABCN2Kp6BZYSeP43Qh8zQsG09RmtfDf0/s320/3629_A%20photograph%20of%20a%20new%20home%20that%20is%20under%20construct_xl-1024-v1-0.png" alt="A photograph of a new home that is under construction. Generated with Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta." title="A photograph of a new home that is under construction." style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" /></a></div>
<p>The market capitalization of the U.S. new home market dipped in January 2024. At an initial estimate of $26.63 billion, it was down about 1% from December 2023's revised estimate of $26.98 billion. The valuation of new homes sold in the U.S. has been trending downward since September 2023, when it recorded a value of $28.30 billion. </p>
<p>The new home market cap also remains some 11.6% below its post-housing bubble peak of $30.12 billion, which was recorded in December 2020. That month represents the high water mark for the recovery of U.S. new home builders following the deflation of the early 2000's housing bubble. <p>
<p>The U.S. Census Bureau's <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales_202401.pdf" target="_blank">initial estimate</a> of the average price for a new home sold in January 2024 is $534,300, which is up significantly from December 2023's revised estimate of $493,400. The seasonally-adjusted and annualized number of new homes sold in January 2024 is 661,000, which was an increase from the preceding month's 651,000. These upward changes were not enough to alter the downward trend for the U.S. new home market cap however. </p>
<p>The following charts track the trends for the U.S. new home <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4QdNIW36TmJKVlsvLxvN3q5P9EnLbfLUWdBBbx4ttuljqIe8pWvwH_2SfT027IfJE4DPacVMyUKpmiaqLWjObctrDyrc3ZYwnSOf7Mjz-L6iLb_cUx4hW9zQIcqhPQ0Cu9dVetlFkAT7v0bOVpXLGeRXOR2nOU1__Jm9aud3JeaXvXkPhM7r6/s1600/ttma-new-home-sales-market-cap-197601-202401.png" target="_blank">market capitalization</a>, <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg9YdTNh9ImrWbJEnnk-3ECsHKetbYl41D_cZ5z3b0CB9Jvyg7Omfmo7NyNmR47ox7YhAAZ_LabSxl5VU7iH7SbcRB_sS1L8wfhqmUB5SYpHbKSnMjoMWxuiyjuDkpY6tNkRf6uaTt7p7hsJCtrgFYAEtAsuQlhX4dktn94DIWlY1nxgQwQkUU/s1600/ttma-annualized-number-new-homes-sold-197601-202401.png" target="_blank">number of new home sales</a> and <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw1ZPuWrJYx6ZpDPooW-NSzN-yi2SE-PnNZjy8EBzC24zO6K4Cz-F9KYXvvgBwwEEDzVu8So30Se4hYdhR2MpTvelBd2ZxAS6_2otF9Uqme8ciz8-cz0Z9b84X1f5bTwYNr7xglw9MTKadECsJCT_E1K0atVKsC3ToaI7a7cc_J5ldG3bKzBz2/s1600/ttma-mean-sale-price-new-homes-sold-197601-202401.png" target="_blank">new home sale prices</a> as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through January 2024. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4QdNIW36TmJKVlsvLxvN3q5P9EnLbfLUWdBBbx4ttuljqIe8pWvwH_2SfT027IfJE4DPacVMyUKpmiaqLWjObctrDyrc3ZYwnSOf7Mjz-L6iLb_cUx4hW9zQIcqhPQ0Cu9dVetlFkAT7v0bOVpXLGeRXOR2nOU1__Jm9aud3JeaXvXkPhM7r6/s1600/ttma-new-home-sales-market-cap-197601-202401.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1034" data-original-width="1422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4QdNIW36TmJKVlsvLxvN3q5P9EnLbfLUWdBBbx4ttuljqIe8pWvwH_2SfT027IfJE4DPacVMyUKpmiaqLWjObctrDyrc3ZYwnSOf7Mjz-L6iLb_cUx4hW9zQIcqhPQ0Cu9dVetlFkAT7v0bOVpXLGeRXOR2nOU1__Jm9aud3JeaXvXkPhM7r6/s1600/ttma-new-home-sales-market-cap-197601-202401.png" alt="Trailing Twelve Month Average New Home Sales Market Capitalization in the United States, January 1976 - January 2024" title="Trailing Twelve Month Average New Home Sales Market Capitalization in the United States, January 1976 - January 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1422px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
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<p style="font-weight: bold; font-size: larger; padding: 4px; background: #e5e1d9; margin-bottom: 0px;">New home sales dip to start 2024: </p>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg9YdTNh9ImrWbJEnnk-3ECsHKetbYl41D_cZ5z3b0CB9Jvyg7Omfmo7NyNmR47ox7YhAAZ_LabSxl5VU7iH7SbcRB_sS1L8wfhqmUB5SYpHbKSnMjoMWxuiyjuDkpY6tNkRf6uaTt7p7hsJCtrgFYAEtAsuQlhX4dktn94DIWlY1nxgQwQkUU/s1600/ttma-annualized-number-new-homes-sold-197601-202401.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1034" data-original-width="1422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg9YdTNh9ImrWbJEnnk-3ECsHKetbYl41D_cZ5z3b0CB9Jvyg7Omfmo7NyNmR47ox7YhAAZ_LabSxl5VU7iH7SbcRB_sS1L8wfhqmUB5SYpHbKSnMjoMWxuiyjuDkpY6tNkRf6uaTt7p7hsJCtrgFYAEtAsuQlhX4dktn94DIWlY1nxgQwQkUU/s1600/ttma-annualized-number-new-homes-sold-197601-202401.png" alt="Trailing Twelve Month Average of the Annualized Number of New Homes Sold in the U.S., January 1976 - December 2023" title="Trailing Twelve Month Average of the Annualized Number of New Homes Sold in the U.S., January 1976 - December 2023" /></a>
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<p style="font-weight: bold; font-size: larger; padding: 4px; background: #e5e1d9; margin-bottom: 0px;">New home prices stop falling: </p>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw1ZPuWrJYx6ZpDPooW-NSzN-yi2SE-PnNZjy8EBzC24zO6K4Cz-F9KYXvvgBwwEEDzVu8So30Se4hYdhR2MpTvelBd2ZxAS6_2otF9Uqme8ciz8-cz0Z9b84X1f5bTwYNr7xglw9MTKadECsJCT_E1K0atVKsC3ToaI7a7cc_J5ldG3bKzBz2/s1600/ttma-mean-sale-price-new-homes-sold-197601-202401.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1034" data-original-width="1422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw1ZPuWrJYx6ZpDPooW-NSzN-yi2SE-PnNZjy8EBzC24zO6K4Cz-F9KYXvvgBwwEEDzVu8So30Se4hYdhR2MpTvelBd2ZxAS6_2otF9Uqme8ciz8-cz0Z9b84X1f5bTwYNr7xglw9MTKadECsJCT_E1K0atVKsC3ToaI7a7cc_J5ldG3bKzBz2/s1600/ttma-mean-sale-price-new-homes-sold-197601-202401.png" alt="Trailing Twelve Month Average of the Mean Sale Price of New Homes Sold in the U.S., January 1976 - January 2024" title="Trailing Twelve Month Average of the Mean Sale Price of New Homes Sold in the U.S., January 1976 - January 2024" /></a>
</div>
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<p>Considering the state of the market, the same "golden handcuffs" phenomemon that has hamstrung the existing home sales market in 2022 and 2023 is both <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90994532/housing-market-golden-handcuffs-new-data-mortgate-rates" target="_blank">very real</a> and has continued into 2024. The phenomenon is boosting new home sales, which could have even higher in January 2024 if not for unusually cold weather, particularly in the southern region of the United States. </p>
<p>Both these factors are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-miss-expectations-january-2024-02-26/" target="_blank">prominently mentioned</a> in news reports on January 2024's new home sales figures. </p>
<blockquote style="background: #e5e1d9; padding: 0em 1em; border: 1px #940022 dotted; border-left: 8px #940022 solid; box-shadow: 2px 2px 10px #cccccc;">
<p>Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose less than expected in January amid a sharp decline in the South region, but demand for new construction remains underpinned by a persistent shortage of previously owned homes. </p>
<p>New home sales increased 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday. The sales pace for December was revised lower to 651,000 units from the previously reported 664,000 units. </p>
<p>"The new side of the housing market continues to greatly outperform when measured against the market for existing homes," said Daniel Vielhaber, an economist at Nationwide. "As the existing home inventory shortage persists, buyers continue to be pushed into the market for new homes." </p>
<p>Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 14.2% of U.S. home sales, would rise to a rate of 680,000 units. Large parts of the country experienced freezing temperatures in January, which could have kept some potential buyers home. The frigid weather weighed on retail sales, homebuilding and factory production in January. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>To see what they mean about unseasonably cold weather in much of the U.S. Census Bureau's "South" region, we pulled the NOAA's climate data for January 2024. Here are maps showing what average temeratures are in the lower 48 contiguous states and where temperatures were either unseasonably warm or cold. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1BAOxGWrfaJfTtIKKs6zA1L09gbQzWZRN66upt0CpawYiBf9JdQzdcwDMwShNcg9IowNwTMytTZz7R2Oj2wW62RPT-C1dnYHeBNcL_jEluCZo97eZq6JdLgi8dvdE_Y-JmQzg3uBVHyhtXK3dntSIyRYJBooY6QEv-__WaTI2tMY2_xGOQD5V/s1600/US_summary_Jan_temperature_20240209_0.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="2000" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1BAOxGWrfaJfTtIKKs6zA1L09gbQzWZRN66upt0CpawYiBf9JdQzdcwDMwShNcg9IowNwTMytTZz7R2Oj2wW62RPT-C1dnYHeBNcL_jEluCZo97eZq6JdLgi8dvdE_Y-JmQzg3uBVHyhtXK3dntSIyRYJBooY6QEv-__WaTI2tMY2_xGOQD5V/s1600/US_summary_Jan_temperature_20240209_0.png" alt="U.S. Climate Summary Janaury 2024 - Source: NOAA - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/us-climate-summary-january-2024" title="U.S. Climate Summary Janaury 2024 - Source: NOAA" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 867px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>The number of sales were up in the Northeast, Midwest, and West, significant portions of which were unseasonably warm. That sales were down in the South with unseasonably cold weather is consistent with the hypothesis new home sales were affected by January 2024's weather. </p>
<p>The same article also indicates U.S. mortgage rates also crept back up toward the 7.0% threshold during the month. We'll check out the effect of that on the affordability of new homes in the very near future. </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [<a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/sold_cust.xls" target="_blank">Excel Spreadsheet</a>]. Accessed 26 February 2024. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [<a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/usprice_cust.xls" target="_blank">Excel Spreadsheet</a>]. Accessed 26 February 2024. </p>
<p>Image credit: Stable Diffusion <a href="https://beta.dreamstudio.ai/generate" target="_blank">DreamStudio Beta</a>. Prompt: "A photograph of a new home that is under construction." </p>
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</style>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-55960709031502165892024-02-27T05:31:00.013-05:002024-02-27T05:31:00.283-05:00When Are Two Pills Better Than One? <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhENvjlyNsCkyu4Q2e4vfnMknE2kJWBDdyv_XcFHHb7Xm2nL0a5t4j8aUUdKDdcCtL1Id1qrtpWfMP0Vb1cM25RWxJXHIKLECCrZdCaIbaMOvAHtewke_q1ryk11I3jlbU2B8302uN6d2FJhI04uoAZ2DjfSLKthQ2W00KT2hAIwix-nQZS18Yh/s1024/_4b223198-718a-4299-b271-815527966227.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhENvjlyNsCkyu4Q2e4vfnMknE2kJWBDdyv_XcFHHb7Xm2nL0a5t4j8aUUdKDdcCtL1Id1qrtpWfMP0Vb1cM25RWxJXHIKLECCrZdCaIbaMOvAHtewke_q1ryk11I3jlbU2B8302uN6d2FJhI04uoAZ2DjfSLKthQ2W00KT2hAIwix-nQZS18Yh/s320/_4b223198-718a-4299-b271-815527966227.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="A pill cutter splitting one pill into two pills. Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." title="A pill cutter splitting one pill into two pills. Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer." /></a></div>
<p>You've almost certainly seen marketing for medications that combine two different kinds of medicine into one tablet or pill. A common example is over-the-counter cold medication that combines a fever reducer with a decongestant, which can be argued makes sense. If you have both a fever and a stuffy nose, you can see the logic. It's convenient and it may be cheaper to buy a single product that combines two medications than buying the two medications separately. </p>
<p>But how often does that make sense? For example, it's pretty easy to find over-the-counter medications like Advil (ibuprofen) and Tylenol (acetaminophin) at very low prices. But GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is selling a product that combines both these medications into a single pill under it's Advil brand name. We recently found it at Walmart, where you can get <a data-alt-URL="https://www.walmart.com/ip/Advil-Dual-Action-With-Acetaminophen-Pain-and-Headache-Reliever-Ibuprofen-Coated-Caplets-144-Count/421716847" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240224165320/https://www.walmart.com/ip/Advil-Dual-Action-With-Acetaminophen-Pain-and-Headache-Reliever-Ibuprofen-Coated-Caplets-144-Count/421716847" target="_blank">144 coated caplets made with 125 mg of ibuprofen and 250 mg of acetominophen each</a> for $17.98, which is about $0.125 per pill. </p>
<p>What would we need to do to duplicate that dosage with separate ibuprofen and acetaminophen pills to find that cost? We found we couldn't find the specific amount of each medication in a single pill, but what if we had a precision pill cutter? What would it take to divide up the pills to get these specific dosage amounts? </p>
<p>Starting with the <a data-alt-URL="https://www.walmart.com/ip/Advil-Pain-and-Headache-Reliever-Ibuprofen-200-Mg-Coated-Caplets-100-Count/878656" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240224170228/https://www.walmart.com/ip/Advil-Pain-and-Headache-Reliever-Ibuprofen-200-Mg-Coated-Caplets-100-Count/878656" target="_blank">100 coated caplets with 200mg of Advil-branded ibuprofen</a> we can get at Walmart for $9.98, we could divvy up the caplets and remake them to have 125 mg of ibuprofen each and have the equivalent of 160 pills that would cost a little under $0.062 each. </p>
<p>We can do something similar with the containers of <a data-alt-URL="https://www.walmart.com/ip/Tylenol-Regular-Strength-Tablets-with-325-mg-Acetaminophen-100-Ct/10294210" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240224171228/https://www.walmart.com/ip/Tylenol-Regular-Strength-Tablets-with-325-mg-Acetaminophen-100-Ct/10294210" target="_blank">regular strength Tylenol with 100 tablets of 325 mg acetaminophen</a> that we can also buy at Walmart for $6.97. Pulling out our precision pill cutter again to remake these tablets into pills with a dose of 200 mg acetaminophen each, we would have 162-and-a-half pills, each costing a little under $0.043. </p>
<p>The cost for our equivalent pills of 125 mg of ibuprofen and 200 mg of acetaminophen works out be about $0.105 when buying each medication separately. That's 16% lower than the $0.125 per pill cost of the "dual action" pills that GSK markets. This is also using the brand-name version of these medications. We could almost certainly get the cost even lower by switching to generic sources. But it also means that at a minimum, GSK is pocketing an extra two cents a pill according this math! </p>
<p>Let's keep in mind there's nothing special about the dual action pill that either makes it work better or easier to take than the single-action pills. That <a href="https://www.acsh.org/news/2023/12/28/tylenol-plus-advil-combo-innovation-or-exploitation-17549" target="_blank">point is driven home</a> by Dr. Josh Bloom of the American Council on Science and Health, who gives a bit of history and describes what studies say about how effective the medication is:
<blockquote style="background: #e5e1d9; padding: 0em 1em; border: 1px #940022 dotted; border-left: 8px #940022 solid; box-shadow: 2px 2px 10px #cccccc;">
<p>In 2020, Glaxo-SmithKline received FDA approval to sell Advil Dual Action, a combination of ibuprofen and acetaminophen in one pill containing 125 mg of ibuprofen (1) and 250 mg of acetaminophen. The directions tell you to take two caplets every eight hours (no more than six per day), making the combined daily dose 750 mg of ibuprofen and 1,500 mg of acetaminophen. In a <a href="http://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/fda-approves-gsk-s-advil-dual-action-with-acetaminophen-for-over-the-counter-use-in-the-united-states/" target="_blank">press release</a>, GSK writes: <b>[my emphasis]</b> </p>
<blockquote style="background: #f5f1e9; padding: 0em 1em; text-decoration: italic;">
<p>The submission in support of today’s approval of Advil Dual Action was based on data from seven clinical studies, three of which were pivotal efficacy and safety studies in pain relief. The data supports a pain relief indication and demonstrates that the <b>fixed-dose combination achieves superior efficacy</b> compared to <b>the individual monocomponents</b> of ibuprofen (250mg) and acetaminophen (500mg) <b>alone</b> (as evidenced by appreciable improvements in acute pain symptoms across multiple pre-specified endpoints). </p>
</blockquote>
<p><b>Sleaze alert!</b> </p>
<p>GSK probably doesn't want you to read or understand the paragraph above. Why? Because the company isn't comparing the efficacy of Advil Dual Action to a combination of ibuprofen and acetaminophen pills taken together. The key word here is "<b>alone</b>." When taken together, there is good evidence that the two drugs work better than either alone. </p>
<blockquote style="background: #f5f1e9; padding: 0em 1em; text-decoration: italic;">
<p>Ibuprofen plus paracetamol combinations provided better analgesia than either drug alone (at the same dose), with a smaller chance of needing additional analgesia over about eight hours, and with a smaller chance of experiencing an adverse event. </p>
<p>Derry, et. al, Cochrane Library 24 June 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD010210.pub2 </p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, the company <b>does not compare</b> the <b>combination</b> of the two drugs to its product; it just compares its product to both alone. Will the same doses of the two separate pills together work as well? Bet the house on it. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>A two-cent a pill savings may not sound like much. For you, every time you buy 50 of the dual action pills instead of the single-action versions, it's an extra dollar out of your pocket without much of any additional benefit. Multiply you by millions of others like you who might buy these dual action pills, and you'll find its very big money for GSK. </p>
<p>Unless the convenience is worth the extra price you're paying, odds are this is a case where two pills are better than one. </p>
<p>Image credit: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-pill-cutter-splitting-one-pill-into-two-pills/1-65da3978439e4d46a06e581887b7ff02?id=Aq7R83yzecH%2foPX1XEq87Q%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG1.B6jnMNRNro4KNt2eh1YQ&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">Microsoft Copilot Designer</a>. Prompt: "A pill cutter splitting one pill into two pills." </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-49451545327869039102024-02-26T05:26:00.031-05:002024-02-26T05:26:00.134-05:00S&P 500 Sparked to New Heights by NVDA's Blowout Earnings<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMT5k3AeJ8_6TTkRcxrsbzC0lpus2JGVcMsCU5zsjHr6bF_pN-d3pQzpB2CRM5MrQC7xN768bRFPNo1UKZHYWcWy8A4pYzVW5ogIPPjv6aeh2KlQDlbD6aXj0sSe7pej_xlaDKobnU0FVVXU0-cOPflyAM9KcIzxtGqs-eCVCtv7XP_vjYgzFP/s1024/_50beba4b-8302-4a51-b83a-39b81d4cc076.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMT5k3AeJ8_6TTkRcxrsbzC0lpus2JGVcMsCU5zsjHr6bF_pN-d3pQzpB2CRM5MrQC7xN768bRFPNo1UKZHYWcWy8A4pYzVW5ogIPPjv6aeh2KlQDlbD6aXj0sSe7pej_xlaDKobnU0FVVXU0-cOPflyAM9KcIzxtGqs-eCVCtv7XP_vjYgzFP/s320/_50beba4b-8302-4a51-b83a-39b81d4cc076.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="An artificial intelligence computer chip with the letters NVDA in the middle. Image generated with Microsoft Bing Image Generator." title="An artificial intelligence computer chip with the letters NVDA in the middle. Image generated with Microsoft Bing Image Generator." /></a></div>
<p>The S&P 500 (Index: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500" target="_blank">SPX</a>) rose over 1.6% during the trading week ending on Friday, 23 February 2024. The index closed out the week at <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1708041600&period2=1708732800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true" target="_blank">5,088.80</a>, a new record high. </p>
<p>It was a trading week when there was really only one big stock market story. Shares of Artificial Intelligence (AI) capable computer chip maker Nvidia (Nasdaq: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA" target="_blank">NVDA</a>) surged on Thursday, 22 February 2024, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history?period1=1708473600&period2=1708646400&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true" target="_blank">rising 16.4%</a> above it's previous day's close to reach $785.38 per share as the company reported blowout earnings and boosted its business outlook. </p>
<p>On Friday, 23 February 2024, the company was knocking on the door of a <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4070960-nvidia-makes-wall-street-history-rally-continues-with-2t-in-sight" target="_blank">$2 trillion market capitalization</a>, surging past online retailing giant Amazon (NASDAQ: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN" target="_blank">AMZN</a>) and joining Microsoft (NASDAQ: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT" target="_blank">MSFT</a>) and Apple (NASDAQ: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL" target="_blank">AAPL</a>) in that accomplishment. Together, the S&P 500's big three components of MSFT, AAPL, and NVDA represent <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240223195230/https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500" target="_blank">over one-sixth</a> of the total value of the index. </p>
<p>Since NVDA is a component of the S&P 500, its surging share price prompted the entire index to rise by 2.1% on Thursday, 22 February 2024. As our longtime readers know, any daily change of 2% or more qualifies as an "interesting" day for the stock market. </p>
<p>The following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv8UZTI23laBwsngDeAYDGoBTPOHWGeLcOETAOiuKsX_C_QcasymeWH90j_c1UUfKEH0kaontda2DNzSiyALmPqJNL14TZrncq_Y75JVgyOS8N4DIgJ6mHufI0QP8-rkKmHxnvVbbPIo08o179QSCT90CessajGwYO7uYZuQGKNpZfl302gNno/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20231208-20240117-focus-2024Q2-shift-to-2024Q1-snapshot-20240223.png" target="_blank">update</a> to the alternative futures chart shows how this action affected the trajectory of the S&P 500 during the week that was. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv8UZTI23laBwsngDeAYDGoBTPOHWGeLcOETAOiuKsX_C_QcasymeWH90j_c1UUfKEH0kaontda2DNzSiyALmPqJNL14TZrncq_Y75JVgyOS8N4DIgJ6mHufI0QP8-rkKmHxnvVbbPIo08o179QSCT90CessajGwYO7uYZuQGKNpZfl302gNno/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20231208-20240117-focus-2024Q2-shift-to-2024Q1-snapshot-20240223.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv8UZTI23laBwsngDeAYDGoBTPOHWGeLcOETAOiuKsX_C_QcasymeWH90j_c1UUfKEH0kaontda2DNzSiyALmPqJNL14TZrncq_Y75JVgyOS8N4DIgJ6mHufI0QP8-rkKmHxnvVbbPIo08o179QSCT90CessajGwYO7uYZuQGKNpZfl302gNno/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20231208-20240117-focus-2024Q2-shift-to-2024Q1-snapshot-20240223.png" alt="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 23 Feb 2024" title="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 23 Feb 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 910px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Even with Nvidia's blowout earnings report, investors remain focused on the second quarter of 2024 in setting the trajectory of the S&P 500. We find it running near the upper end of the redzone forecast range we've added to account for the past volatility of stock prices the <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2009/04/math-behind-how-stock-prices-work.html" target="_blank">dividend futures-based model</a> uses as base reference points for projecting the index' potential future trajectories. The new redzone forecast range will run through the end of March 2024. </p>
<p>There was more stuff that happened to shape the future expectations of investors during the past week, which reinforces this observation. Here are the Presidents Day holiday-shortened trading week's market moving headlines. </p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Tuesday, 20 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-hold-near-3-week-highs-middle-east-tensions-china-demand-2024-02-20/" target="_blank">Oil prices hold near 3-week highs on Middle East tensions, China demand</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/nycb-stock-rout-prompts-us-bank-regulators-conduct-health-checks-2024-02-20/" target="_blank">NYCB stock rout prompts US bank regulators to conduct health checks</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions expected to start rate cuts in June 2024: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-cut-us-rates-june-risks-skewed-towards-later-move-2024-02-20/" target="_blank">Fed to cut US rates in June, risks skewed towards later move: Reuters poll</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-hard-landing-bets-rise-rate-options-market-after-fed-hikes-2024-02-20/" target="_blank">US hard landing bets rise in rate options market after Fed hikes</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-lowers-mortgage-reference-rate-by-25-basis-points-2024-02-20/" target="_blank">China slashes mortgage reference rates to revive property market</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-supercharges-stimulus-biggest-cut-mortgage-reference-rate-record" target="_blank">China Supercharges Stimulus With Biggest Cut In Mortgage Reference Rate On Record</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-cbank-leaves-key-policy-rate-unchanged-under-shadow-federal-reserve-2024-02-18/" target="_blank">China central bank leaves key policy rate unchanged under shadow of Federal Reserve</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-likely-recession-bundesbank-says-2024-02-19/" target="_blank">Germany likely in recession, Bundesbank says</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4069023-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow close in the red as tech stocks slide in run-up to Nvidia results</a></li>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Wednesday, 21 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-markets-weigh-red-sea-attacks-us-rate-cuts-2024-02-21/" target="_blank">Oil dips as investors weigh up US rate cut outlook</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tumbling-us-natural-gas-prices-prove-unstoppable-hurting-producers-2024-02-21/" target="_blank">Tumbling US natural gas prices prove unstoppable, hurting producers</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions dare not start cutting rates too soon, didn't like January 2024's inflation data, thinking about what's next for managing its balance sheet: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-concerned-about-cutting-rates-too-soon-minutes-january-meeting-show-2024-02-21/" target="_blank">Fed worried about cutting rates too soon, minutes of January meeting show</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-data-january-made-feds-job-harder-barkin-says-2024-02-21/" target="_blank">US inflation data for January made Fed's job 'harder,' Barkin says</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-officials-ready-start-full-tilt-balance-sheet-debate-march-fomc-2024-02-21/" target="_blank">Fed officials will dive into balance sheet debate at March FOMC</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/measures-china-has-taken-prop-up-its-stock-market-2024-01-23/" target="_blank">China's efforts to prop up its ailing stock market</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-bans-stock-selling-market-open-close-limits-shorting" target="_blank">China Bans Stock Selling At Market Open, Close; Limits Shorting</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4069749-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones-nvidia-results" target="_blank">Nasdaq ends well off session low, S&P and Dow stage reversal ahead of Nvidia's results</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-first-quarter-revenue-above-estimates-2024-02-21/" target="_blank">Nvidia stock surges as revenue forecast tops estimates, AI demand continues</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nvincible-nvidia-surges-after-smashing-estimates-guiding-sharply-higher" target="_blank">Nvincible Nvidia Surges After Smashing Estimates, Guiding Sharply Higher</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Thursday, 22 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-higher-holding-gains-made-signs-tighter-supply-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">Oil settles higher as pressure mounts in the Middle East</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-farmers-face-harsh-economics-with-record-corn-supplies-silos-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">US farmers face harsh economics with record corn supplies in silos</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-existing-home-sales-rise-five-month-high-january-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">US existing home sales rise to five-month high in January</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions send mixed messages on 2024 rate cuts: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-waller-sees-no-rush-cut-interest-rates-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">Fed's Waller sees 'no rush' to cut interest rates</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-harker-central-bank-likely-track-rate-cut-this-year-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">Fed's Harker: Timing of first central bank rate cut may be close</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-jefferson-says-he-is-cautiously-optimistic-about-inflation-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">Fed's Jefferson sees progress on inflation, says rate cuts linked to broad set of data</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-cook-need-more-confidence-inflation-before-cutting-rates-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">Fed's Cook: need more confidence on inflation before cutting rates</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/pressure-grows-china-big-policy-moves-fix-economy-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">Pressure grows on China for big policy moves to fix economy</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions watch Japan stock market hit first new high in decades: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">Nikkei scores first record high since 1989 in global bull run</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-crazy-1980s-bubble-dim-memory-nikkei-hits-record-high-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">Morning Bid: Nvidia helps Nikkei over finish line</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions losing money: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-reports-record-loss-2023-rate-hikes-bite-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">ECB reports record loss for 2023 as rate hikes bite</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4070475-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Dow jumps, Nasdaq and S&P each post best day in over a year on Nvidia euphoria</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nasdaq-futures-jump-nearly-2-after-nvidia-trounces-expectations-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">S&P 500, Dow surge to record closing highs as Nvidia sparks AI frenzy</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/graphic-nvidias-growing-sway-over-us-stock-market-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">Nvidia’s growing sway over the US stock market</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4070242-a-game-changer-nvidia-shocks-wall-street-generative-ai-tipping-point" target="_blank">A game changer:' Nvidia shocks Wall Street as generative AI hits 'tipping point' (update)</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/ai-leader-nvidia-rises-forecast-tops-wall-streets-lofty-goals-2024-02-22/" target="_blank">Nvidia adds record $277 billion in stock market value</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Friday, 23 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-falls-after-us-fed-governor-says-no-rush-cut-interest-rates-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">Oil falls after US Fed governor says no rush to cut interest rates</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-cautious-rate-cut-case-that-has-yet-be-made-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">Fed cautious on a rate cut case that has yet to be made</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/major-brokerages-dont-expect-fed-rate-cut-till-june-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">Major brokerages don't expect Fed rate cut till June</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-expected-take-gradual-approach-prop-up-economy-further-say-analysts-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">China expected to take gradual approach to prop up economy further, say analysts</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble still developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-new-home-prices-extend-declines-despite-policy-support-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">China's new home prices extend declines despite policy support</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/chinas-woes-wont-slow-us-economy-excess-capacity-concern-treasurys-adeyemo-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">China's woes won't slow US economy, but excess capacity a concern, says Treasury's Adeyemo</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Central bank minions losing money hand over fist: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/bundesbank-posts-big-loss-predicts-more-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">German, Dutch central banks post big losses, warn of more</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions say they'll resist cutting interest rates too soon: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-must-resist-early-rate-cut-temptation-nagel-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">Resist early rate cut temptation, ECB's Nagel warns</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4071198-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow gain more than 1% each for the week, boosted by Nvidia euphoria</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/global-markets-marketcap-pix-2024-02-23/" target="_blank">Nvidia briefly hits $2 trillion valuation as AI frenzy grips Wall Street</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
</dl>
<p>The CME Group's <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank">FedWatch Tool</a> projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 12 June 2024 (2024-Q2), unchanged from last week. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow" target="_blank">Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool</a>'s latest estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 (2024-Q1) remains at +2.9%, as its next update will be on 27 February 2024. </p>
<p>Image credit: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/an-artificial-intelligence-computer-chip-with-the-/1-65da10316f844414ae35f014067098ab?id=zzj3lL7HxbS%2fJHpa85in9g%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG3.h4it5IDGtSI1nSCvtts3&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">Microsoft Bing Image Creator</a>. Prompt: "An artificial intelligence computer chip with the letters NVDA in the middle." </p>
</div>
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</style>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-22944453823819867112024-02-23T05:05:00.021-05:002024-02-23T05:05:00.136-05:00Union Membership in the U.S. Workforce Visualized<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNNWeJCvhoWkkwd_gdo-HuIdeDX-rR2_06bdenYiImWHml-5Lp8eMzXWULwn0l-g8c-RNWiJaqk3chhnrbj7xZ-zmrWTVMO5l6_lzuuvuYmM_UBBTDnlZQ02pTEiLJzJO6XCp-LtjdK9tzEM8bBf5rh80UhQy6EoOSfv5S3Kh7kjTmLMrI1yRd/s768/SD-stacked-bar-chart-with-two-bars-shades-of-green.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="180" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="768" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNNWeJCvhoWkkwd_gdo-HuIdeDX-rR2_06bdenYiImWHml-5Lp8eMzXWULwn0l-g8c-RNWiJaqk3chhnrbj7xZ-zmrWTVMO5l6_lzuuvuYmM_UBBTDnlZQ02pTEiLJzJO6XCp-LtjdK9tzEM8bBf5rh80UhQy6EoOSfv5S3Kh7kjTmLMrI1yRd/s320/SD-stacked-bar-chart-with-two-bars-shades-of-green.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="A stacked bar chart with two bars, shades of green image generated by Stable Diffusion" title="A stacked bar chart with two bars, shades of green image generated by Stable Diffusion" /></a></div>
<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf" data-alt-URL="https://web.archive.org/web/20240124013826/https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf" target="_blank">2023 report</a> on union members in the U.S. work force last month. The report was a <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/23/business/union-membership-rate-hits-record-low-2023-though-unions-picked-up-workers/" target="_blank">mixed one</a> for labor unions, which saw an increase in the number of Americans who are union members, but a decrease in their percentage among all wage and salary earners. </p>
<p>The report itself makes for dry reading, because it's mostly a text summary of information that's been otherwise compiled into data tables. For us, that's an opportunity because it's the kind of information that begs to be visualized. </p>
<p>For example, the report presents information on union membership in both the private and public sectors of the U.S. economy, but falls short in its presentation. Here's an excerpt (<b>boldface</b> emphasis ours):
<blockquote style="border-color: #940022; background-color: #E5E1D9; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 8px; border-style: dotted dotted dotted solid; padding: 0em 1em;">
<p><b>In 2023, 7.0 million employees in the public sector belonged to unions, compared with 7.4 million workers in the private sector.</b> (See table 3.) </p>
<p><b>In the public sector, both union membership and the union membership rate (32.5 percent) were little changed over the year.</b> In 2023, the union membership rate continued to be highest in local government (38.4 percent), which employs many workers in heavily unionized occupations, such as police officers, firefighters, and teachers. </p>
<p><b>The number of union workers employed in the private sector increased by 191,000 to 7.4 million in 2023, while the unionization rate was unchanged at 6.0 percent.</b> Industries with high unionization rates included utilities (19.9 percent), transportation and warehousing (15.9 percent), educational services (12.9 percent), and motion picture and sound recording industries (12.1 percent). Low unionization rates occurred in finance (1.2 percent), professional and technical services (1.3 percent), food services and drinking places (1.4 percent), and insurance (1.5 percent). </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Those are certainly numbers. Fortunately, they are numbers that are relatively easy to visualize. We've done that with the following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhswW4sevG8J8i2VJvTc9RnKHjITdyQSOrv6gSisdGpXi4Z3TMS7SsfxykgGQVSm9bEqbFRBnYqxkg9gtCtR4niv6CVetCQks9CjMnszEwCbhj91QwOYfmCU3Fk39_M2n1YEeCPL5GhOqmcVML5jTCS5nXcE5IERt1VckoD-RLsQ2HXzGvpxx-e/s1600/2023-US-union-membership-in-private-and-public-sectors.png" target="_blank">chart</a> visualizing a portion of the data we emphasized and adding some basic text to tell the bigger story. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhswW4sevG8J8i2VJvTc9RnKHjITdyQSOrv6gSisdGpXi4Z3TMS7SsfxykgGQVSm9bEqbFRBnYqxkg9gtCtR4niv6CVetCQks9CjMnszEwCbhj91QwOYfmCU3Fk39_M2n1YEeCPL5GhOqmcVML5jTCS5nXcE5IERt1VckoD-RLsQ2HXzGvpxx-e/s1600/2023-US-union-membership-in-private-and-public-sectors.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1409" data-original-width="1047" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhswW4sevG8J8i2VJvTc9RnKHjITdyQSOrv6gSisdGpXi4Z3TMS7SsfxykgGQVSm9bEqbFRBnYqxkg9gtCtR4niv6CVetCQks9CjMnszEwCbhj91QwOYfmCU3Fk39_M2n1YEeCPL5GhOqmcVML5jTCS5nXcE5IERt1VckoD-RLsQ2HXzGvpxx-e/s1600/2023-US-union-membership-in-private-and-public-sectors.png" alt="U.S. Union Membership by Employment Sector, 2023" title="U.S. Union Membership by Employment Sector, 2023" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1047px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Presenting the data this way provides a visual sense of how the numbers in the both private and public sectors directly compare with each other. The alternative would be to go down to Table 3 in the report and then scroll up and down within it to where the referenced data. Using the <a href="https://www.storytellingwithdata.com/blog/stacked-bars" target="_blank">stacked bar chart format</a> also visually communicates the share of union members among all workers in each sector. </p>
<p>We added the "By the Numbers" text to explicitly state the percentage data and the year-over-year increase in union membership. We also added a bonus data point, describing the now seven decade-long trend in falling union membership the BLS report only partially covers because they've only been reporting it for four decades. </p>
<p>In any case, there's quite a lot of data within the report that may be interesting, like the percentage breakdown of union members by occupation or industry. Some of it may even be worth visualizing, but we'll leave that as an exercise to other dataviz enthusiasts! How would they make this report more visually engaging? </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Union Members - 2023. Table 3. Union affiliation of employed wage and salary workers by occupation and industry, 2022-2023 annual averages. [<a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf" data-alt-URL="https://web.archive.org/web/20240124013826/https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf" target="_blank">PDF Document</a>]. 23 January 2024. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Pew Research Center. 10 facts about American workers. [<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/08/29/facts-about-american-workers/" target="_blank">Online Article</a>]. 29 August 2019. </p>
<p>Image credit: <a href="https://huggingface.co/spaces/stabilityai/stable-diffusion" target="_blank">Stable Diffusion</a>. Prompt: "A stacked bar chart with two bars, shades of green." </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-85383653593618788792024-02-22T05:29:00.001-05:002024-02-22T05:29:00.147-05:00Teen Employment Situation Flat in January 2024<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQLcirfxzYfc_FIgQ5rdZEPA1hGIChFAovLp5PKJwxcPfgo5DXyFR4ZFiZoemP6Rhbj0I07G1HJa8pVTAYZi23gKPWQ32cyI-nYBnN6z4Wdur20kE4rYuCC9hzqCGj6zm8Y8BM3dyafRQpKRIkzJMiUZ-4GldphkVowqkzq6slcYZ8kRXPHaM3/s1024/_0fb35a43-1566-473c-a775-a67a7fee2665.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQLcirfxzYfc_FIgQ5rdZEPA1hGIChFAovLp5PKJwxcPfgo5DXyFR4ZFiZoemP6Rhbj0I07G1HJa8pVTAYZi23gKPWQ32cyI-nYBnN6z4Wdur20kE4rYuCC9hzqCGj6zm8Y8BM3dyafRQpKRIkzJMiUZ-4GldphkVowqkzq6slcYZ8kRXPHaM3/s320/_0fb35a43-1566-473c-a775-a67a7fee2665.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="A teenager looking for a job image generated by Microsoft Bing Image Generator - https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-teenager-looking-for-a-job/1-65cfc74d992b4ebc9ef4da16b814c0e0?id=pzOnLX5GkMhT2eoNOiaLYg%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG3.4BG_pLoIAG_CHyZhVzmi&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" title="A teenager looking for a job image generated by Microsoft Bing Image Generator" /></a></div>
<p>After ending 2023 on a <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/teen-employment-enters-2024-on-slow.html" target="_blank">down note</a>, the employment situation for U.S. teens was mostly unchanged in January 2024. </p>
<p>That's good news, particularly for younger teens. This demographic has finally broken out of its 2022 downward trend, having recorded increases in the seasonally-adjusted number of Age 16-17 with jobs in five of the last six months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, there were 2,292,000 working 16-17 year olds in January 2024, about 200,000 more than in July 2023. </p>
<p>But for the overall teen employment situation to be flat, that means a more negative story for older U.S. teens, whose seasonally-adjusted employment figures dipped slightly from the previous month to 3,428,000. While that number didn't change much from December 2023, the percentage share of working older teens declined to 42.0% of the Age 18-19 population in January 2024, down from December 2023's 43.6%. </p>
<p>For the combined population of working teens, the net overall change in seasonally adjusted employment for the combined Age 16-19 population was an increase of 66,000 to 5,704,000. There was no change recorded for this age cohort's employment-to-population percentage from December 2023 to January 2024. </p>
<p>All these changes are shown in the following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLhi1opahReRdvkdJNyW2EPXuysfuxmE-maNQcoc6hIzzALY_SJhuzzOcEavvqqmgTsMpQ-apE6lJdoh0_rn9v1bpszulImHmreGYNGvRJEf6jAwU9ozsEVnJh6fNyAcImJnnA1GWbCRTbF4GHVXhgYaQzvO9NwZsa5WV6BzvWLn23poHfvDy8/s1600/US-teen-employment-and-employment-to-population-ratio-201601-202401.png" target="_blank">charts</a> presenting the seasonally-adjusted data for the number of employed teens and the teen employment-to-population ratio from January 2016 through January 2024. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLhi1opahReRdvkdJNyW2EPXuysfuxmE-maNQcoc6hIzzALY_SJhuzzOcEavvqqmgTsMpQ-apE6lJdoh0_rn9v1bpszulImHmreGYNGvRJEf6jAwU9ozsEVnJh6fNyAcImJnnA1GWbCRTbF4GHVXhgYaQzvO9NwZsa5WV6BzvWLn23poHfvDy8/s1600/US-teen-employment-and-employment-to-population-ratio-201601-202401.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1982" data-original-width="1422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLhi1opahReRdvkdJNyW2EPXuysfuxmE-maNQcoc6hIzzALY_SJhuzzOcEavvqqmgTsMpQ-apE6lJdoh0_rn9v1bpszulImHmreGYNGvRJEf6jAwU9ozsEVnJh6fNyAcImJnnA1GWbCRTbF4GHVXhgYaQzvO9NwZsa5WV6BzvWLn23poHfvDy8/s1600/US-teen-employment-and-employment-to-population-ratio-201601-202401.png" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1422px; margin: 10px auto;" alt="U.S. Teen Employment and Teen Employment-to-Population Ratio*, January 2016 - January 2024" title="U.S. Teen Employment and Teen Employment-to-Population Ratio*, January 2016 - January 2024" /></a></div>
<p>Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics subjects each of these data series to its own seasonal adjustment, you'll find the figures presented in the chart for Age 16-17 year olds and Age 18-19 year olds do not necessarily add up to the combined total for Age 16-19 year olds. If you are looking for employment numbers that do add up properly, you'll want to access the non-seasonally adjusted data available at the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/" target="_blank">BLS' data site</a>. </p>
<h3>Reference</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey - CPS). [<a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/" target="_blank">Online Database</a>]. Accessed: 16 February 2024. </p>
<p>Image Credit: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-teenager-looking-for-a-job/1-65cfc74d992b4ebc9ef4da16b814c0e0?id=pzOnLX5GkMhT2eoNOiaLYg%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG3.4BG_pLoIAG_CHyZhVzmi&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">Microsoft Bing Image Generator</a>. Prompt: "A teenager looking for a job". </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-10074856028584420292024-02-21T05:11:00.040-05:002024-02-21T05:11:00.139-05:00Winter 2024 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFyjIirkfLk5mySqCsBD7LRupqkNnW-q_3tSfSPSl7SazTeOjGtSUrow_1NnScHZm7UaHpmDIyq0RSEcQJs4sFYh2csTu8kYvNyyhghR8ALZFx8EMWxyfE4-UJQMHdVyS3jwcGAkngCccEjrIuY0IrrCaKnY81RTbjpNf-N1qPBUc_yeFMrLdh/s2048/earnings-recession-SD-Dreamstudio-Beta-2.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="240" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFyjIirkfLk5mySqCsBD7LRupqkNnW-q_3tSfSPSl7SazTeOjGtSUrow_1NnScHZm7UaHpmDIyq0RSEcQJs4sFYh2csTu8kYvNyyhghR8ALZFx8EMWxyfE4-UJQMHdVyS3jwcGAkngCccEjrIuY0IrrCaKnY81RTbjpNf-N1qPBUc_yeFMrLdh/s320/earnings-recession-SD-Dreamstudio-Beta-2.png" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="Earnings Recession image generated by Stable Diffusion Dreamstudio Beta" title="Earnings Recession image generated by Stable Diffusion Dreamstudio Beta" /></a></div>
<p>Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: <a href="https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500" target="_blank">SPX</a>) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings. </p>
<p>Since our last update <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/fall-2023-snapshot-of-expected-future-s.html" target="_blank">three months ago</a>, expectations for the S&P 500's earnings slumped in the near term and are stretching out the recovery from 2022's earnings recession. The S&P 500's earnings per share had been expected to return to their March 2022 peak of $197.91 during the first quarter of 2024, but that full recovery now looks to be delayed until after June 2024. </p>
<p>The following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgChKBz45tHWYN3mFX7HzJ2jOzmMBcHnRnpoWExEgnGxIzyjM9IbGpHy8SNKrCI9796ZqLk9dO0jSI5A7eokxhkFlV4z0EQXlcJwVQg6ktbTbpbX2kQ8umWRAZcPGnRFqBM7RwSV8x8C6xv8JkeCQRkQtbdCOn1DxxoRpnx2MHyRYw3h7kt5IcH/s1600/SP500-forecast-trailing-year-earnings-2019Q1-2024Q4-snapshot-20240214.png" target="_blank">chart</a> reveals how the latest earnings outlook has changed with respect to previous snapshots: </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgChKBz45tHWYN3mFX7HzJ2jOzmMBcHnRnpoWExEgnGxIzyjM9IbGpHy8SNKrCI9796ZqLk9dO0jSI5A7eokxhkFlV4z0EQXlcJwVQg6ktbTbpbX2kQ8umWRAZcPGnRFqBM7RwSV8x8C6xv8JkeCQRkQtbdCOn1DxxoRpnx2MHyRYw3h7kt5IcH/s1600/SP500-forecast-trailing-year-earnings-2019Q1-2024Q4-snapshot-20240214.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1032" data-original-width="1872" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgChKBz45tHWYN3mFX7HzJ2jOzmMBcHnRnpoWExEgnGxIzyjM9IbGpHy8SNKrCI9796ZqLk9dO0jSI5A7eokxhkFlV4z0EQXlcJwVQg6ktbTbpbX2kQ8umWRAZcPGnRFqBM7RwSV8x8C6xv8JkeCQRkQtbdCOn1DxxoRpnx2MHyRYw3h7kt5IcH/s1600/SP500-forecast-trailing-year-earnings-2019Q1-2024Q4-snapshot-20240214.png" alt="Forecasts for S&P 500 Trailing Twelve Month Earnings per Share, December 2017-December 2024, Snapshot on 14 February 2024" title="Forecasts for S&P 500 Trailing Twelve Month Earnings per Share, December 2017-December 2024, Snapshot on 14 February 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1872px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Here is a summary of the major observations that may be seen in the changes of Standard & Poor's earnings projections from 8 November 2023 to 14 February 2024: </p>
<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;">Earnings for 2023-Q4 decreased from a projection of $196.02 to $189.74. These earnings are still being reported, so this value is not yet final. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;">Projected earnings for 2024-Q1 dropped from $199.17 to $190.54. This change suggests near-zero earnings growth during the first quarter of 2024. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;">S&P projects faster earnings growth during the second half of 2024. </li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.5em;">Despite that faster anticipated growth, the S&P 500's earnings per share is still expected to dip from $220.70 to $217.99 at the end of 2024. </li>
</ul>
<p>If you look at the historic earnings expectations shown on the chart, particularly the period since 2021, you'll notice a negative pattern in which later projections for earnings are less optimistic than the projections that preceeded them. With 2024-Q1's anticipated earnings per share looking to be nearly unchanged from 2023-Q4's level, should that pattern hold, our spring update may show the start of a "double-dip" earnings recession for the S&P 500. </p>
<h3>About Earnings Recessions</h3>
<p>Depending on who you talk to, an earnings recession has one of two definitions. An earnings recession exists if either earnings decline over at least two consecutive quarters or if there is a year-over-year decline over at least two quarters. The chart identifies the periods in which the quarter-on-quarter decline in earnings definition for an earnings recession is confirmed for both the Pandemic Earnings Recession (December 2020-December 2021) and the new earnings recession (March 2022-December 2022) according to the first definition. The regions of the graph shaded in light-red correspond to the full period in which the S&P 500's earnings per share remained below (or are projected to remain below) its pre-earnings recession levels. </p>
<p>Let's define what a "double-dip" earnings recession would be in case that becomes relevant at the time of our next update. This term describes the situation where after having begun to recover, the S&P 500's earnings per share stops rising and falls without having recovered to its pre-earnings recession level. </p>
<p>Our next snapshot of the index' expected future earnings will be in three months. </p>
<h3>Reference</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [<a href="http://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true" target="_blank">Excel Spreadsheet</a>]. 14 February 2024. Accessed 17 February 2024. </p>
<p>Image credit: Stable Diffusion <a href="https://beta.dreamstudio.ai/generate" target="_blank">DreamStudio Beta</a>. Prompts: "The word 'EARNINGS' and "The word 'Recession'". We combined the two AI-generated images to produce the "Earnings Recession" graphic. </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-28496861191572335552024-02-20T05:02:00.015-05:002024-02-20T05:02:00.153-05:00Bearish Inflation Reports Prompt S&P 500 Retreat from Record Highs<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFOqnDPjSsY-JWoTKpTOR371yjxYLhqRcr52McbpeRpJlHT7hlS0orAZWgNvVL8gWSt6T4lvuF-KZe89m3bZ4IcwVur_hJVRLd4WLVNKc267ZKUfK4l_1AkMPsJa9K4hmunrkaRTkicKeJnQD5VBQ9BvOs4kPNnVZO6yzTQAlMg2UH21FeCICD/s1024/_fdd560ac-0a41-4430-b9df-e65d0fb988cf.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFOqnDPjSsY-JWoTKpTOR371yjxYLhqRcr52McbpeRpJlHT7hlS0orAZWgNvVL8gWSt6T4lvuF-KZe89m3bZ4IcwVur_hJVRLd4WLVNKc267ZKUfK4l_1AkMPsJa9K4hmunrkaRTkicKeJnQD5VBQ9BvOs4kPNnVZO6yzTQAlMg2UH21FeCICD/s320/_fdd560ac-0a41-4430-b9df-e65d0fb988cf.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="An editorial cartoon of a worried Wall Street bull looking backward over its shoulder at a bear. The bear has the word 'Inflation' written on it. Image created with Microsoft Bing Image Generator." title="An editorial cartoon of a worried Wall Street bull looking backward over its shoulder at a bear. The bear has the word 'Inflation' written on it. Image created with Microsoft Bing Image Generator." /></a></div>
<p>After breaking through the 5,000 milestone to set a new record high last week, the S&P 500 (Index: <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/" target="_blank">SPX</a>) retreated from that lofty level. The index dropped 0.4% from last week's close to end the trading week at <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1707436800&period2=1708128000&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true" target="_blank">5,005.57</a>. </p>
<p>You wouldn't think it from that description, but the S&P 500 did manage to eke out a new record high of 5,029.73 on Thursday, 15 February 2024. But the bigger news of the week was the stock market's response to two reports about inflation in the U.S. The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_02132024.pdf" target="_blank">first report</a> on the Consumer Price Index <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-ease-caution-ahead-inflation-data-2024-02-13/" target="_blank">prompted</a> a 1.4% drop on Tuesday, 13 February 2024. The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_02162024.pdf" target="_blank">second report</a> on the Producer Price Index <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-nasdaq-futures-rise-ahead-inflation-data-applied-materials-surges-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">sparked</a> a half percent decline on Friday, 16 February 2024. </p>
<p>Both reports indicated higher-than-expected inflation to start 2024. Together, that new information affected investor expectations for the timing of when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in 2024. The CME Group's <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank">FedWatch Tool</a>'s projections of when the Fed is expected to start a series of rate cuts has shifted. It now projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 12 June 2024 (2024-Q2), six weeks later than previously anticipated. </p>
<p>Here is this week's <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD_D266xNgyJT2cjKQyoVDi3qfit8sBUZbio6tN0sYbxDFOnbu8ayh19GvfapuZFuqO_g-_c33xaFCzmTFCoMFGGytoWpRtQyOjrvjn0t2xr7Q_P-kukS7xFWClRNH1MietN6eyKVLz13yTDRCTvwIqq3PoMAfcg6XKLJi7PVHRu7wyQ9K0-cs/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20231208-20240117-focus-2024Q2-shift-to-2024Q1-snapshot-20240216.png" target="_blank">update</a> of the <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2009/04/math-behind-how-stock-prices-work.html" target="_blank">dividend futures-based model</a>'s alternative futures chart. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD_D266xNgyJT2cjKQyoVDi3qfit8sBUZbio6tN0sYbxDFOnbu8ayh19GvfapuZFuqO_g-_c33xaFCzmTFCoMFGGytoWpRtQyOjrvjn0t2xr7Q_P-kukS7xFWClRNH1MietN6eyKVLz13yTDRCTvwIqq3PoMAfcg6XKLJi7PVHRu7wyQ9K0-cs/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20231208-20240117-focus-2024Q2-shift-to-2024Q1-snapshot-20240216.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD_D266xNgyJT2cjKQyoVDi3qfit8sBUZbio6tN0sYbxDFOnbu8ayh19GvfapuZFuqO_g-_c33xaFCzmTFCoMFGGytoWpRtQyOjrvjn0t2xr7Q_P-kukS7xFWClRNH1MietN6eyKVLz13yTDRCTvwIqq3PoMAfcg6XKLJi7PVHRu7wyQ9K0-cs/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20231208-20240117-focus-2024Q2-shift-to-2024Q1-snapshot-20240216.png" alt="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 16 Feb 2024" title="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 16 Feb 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 910px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Looking forward, we're coming up on a several week long period where the echoes of past volatility in stock prices affect the dividend futures-based model's projections. This situation arises because of the model's use of historic stock prices as the base reference points from which its projections are developed. The next update for the chart will feature a new redzone forecast range to account for this echo effect. </p>
<p>In the meantime, here are the market-moving headlines for the week that was. </p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Monday, 12 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/job-cuts-spill-beyond-tech-sector-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">Job cuts spill beyond tech sector</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/real-estate-pain-us-regional-banks-is-piling-up-say-investors-2024-02-12/" target="_blank">Real estate pain for US regional banks is piling up, say investors</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-starts-week-lower-after-israel-says-concluded-gaza-strikes-2024-02-12/" target="_blank">Oil settles little changed; demand concerns offset Middle East tensions</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/rising-distress-in-germany-signals-a-lot-more-struggles-ahead" target="_blank">Rising Distress in Germany Signals a Lot More Struggles Ahead</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-commercial-property-prices-post-biggest-ever-drop-data-shows-2024-02-12/" target="_blank">German commercial property prices post biggest-ever drop, data shows</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-banks-face-new-slate-risks-supervisor-warns-2024-02-12/" target="_blank">Euro zone banks face new slate of risks, supervisor warns</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4065638-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end mixed as Wall Street's bull run takes a beat ahead of CPI</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-muted-caution-looms-ahead-data-packed-week-2024-02-12/" target="_blank">Nasdaq slips from near all-time high, Dow up modestly ahead of inflation data</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Tuesday, 13 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-more-than-expected-january-2024-02-13/" target="_blank">Rising rents push US inflation higher; rate cuts still expected in 2024</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/labor-worries-costs-drag-small-business-sentiment-down-by-most-13-months-nfib-2024-02-13/" target="_blank">Labor worries, costs drag small business sentiment down by most in 13 months -NFIB</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-near-flat-demand-worries-offset-middle-east-risk-2024-02-13/" target="_blank">Oil up on geopolitical tension, gains capped by fading Fed rate-cut hopes</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/number-us-farms-falls-size-increases-census-shows-2024-02-13/" target="_blank">Number of US farms falls and size increases, census shows</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-bet-fed-wont-cut-rates-until-june-inflation-fails-cool-2024-02-13/" target="_blank">Fed seen waiting longer to cut rates as inflation stays elevated</a></li>
<li>ECB minions ready to let inflation data decide next steps, bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/number-rate-cuts-will-depend-inflation-data-ecbs-lane-says-2024-02-13/" target="_blank">Number of rate cuts will depend on inflation data, ECB's Lane says</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-is-an-unfit-man-economy-isnt-shape-finance-minister-says-2024-02-12/" target="_blank">Germany is an unfit man, economy isn't in shape, finance minister says</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-ease-caution-ahead-inflation-data-2024-02-13/" target="_blank">Wall St ends sharply lower as hot inflation sparks sell-off</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4066222-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones-cpi-data" target="_blank">Dow posts worst day in nearly a year, Nasdaq and S&P also slide on hot CPI data</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Wednesday, 14 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-fall-sticky-inflation-bigger-than-expected-us-crude-stock-build-2024-02-14/" target="_blank">Oil falls by more than $1/bbl on US crude build, security threat worries</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/cisco-lay-off-5-workforce-2024-02-14/" target="_blank">Cisco to cut more than 4,000 jobs, lowers annual revenue forecast</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-retail-sales-fall-sharply-january-weekly-jobless-claims-decline-2024-02-15/" target="_blank">Frigid temperatures chill US retail sales, factory production</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions not so sure about "soft" landing for U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-barr-january-data-shows-path-2-inflation-will-be-bumpy-2024-02-14/" target="_blank">Fed's Barr: 'Bumpy' path to 2% inflation means soft landing jury still out</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in Japan, Nikkei predicts BOJ minions will keep never-ending stimulus alive: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-economy-slips-into-recession-weak-domestic-demand-2024-02-15/" target="_blank">Japan unexpectedly slips into recession, Germany now world's third-biggest economy</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-q4-gdp-unexpectedly-contracts-due-weak-domestic-demand-2024-02-15/" target="_blank">Japan Q4 GDP unexpectedly contracts due to weak domestic demand</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japan-enters-recession-nikkei-about-hit-all-time-high" target="_blank">Japan Enters Recession With Nikkei About To Hit All Time High</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions want to take some time to think about it: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-q4-gdp-confirmed-flat-qq-up-01-yy-2024-02-14/" target="_blank">Euro zone Q4 GDP confirmed flat q/q, up 0.1% y/y</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ecb-needs-some-time-before-cutting-rates-de-guindos-2024-02-14/" target="_blank">ECB needs 'some time' before cutting rates: de Guindos</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4066960-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end higher as Wall Street regains footing after CPI sell-off</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-climb-after-wall-st-sell-off-rate-cut-jitters-loom-2024-02-14/" target="_blank">Wall Street ends higher, lifted by Uber, Lyft and Nvidia</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-market-cap-threatens-alphabet-after-overtaking-amazon-2024-02-13/" target="_blank">Nvidia market cap threatens Alphabet after overtaking Amazon</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/uber-announces-7-billion-buyback-after-first-profitable-year-2024-02-14/" target="_blank">Uber hits record high after unveiling first-ever $7 bln share buyback</a></li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4067066-lyft-ceo-apologizes-for-the-typo-that-sent-the-companys-stock-up-67" target="_blank">Lyft CEO apologizes for the typo that sent the company’s stock up 67%</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Thursday, 15 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-slips-after-large-us-crude-stock-build-2024-02-15/" target="_blank">Oil slips after large US crude stock build</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions thinking about taking some time before acting to cut interest rates: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/feds-bostic-more-time-needed-weigh-prospect-rate-cut-2024-02-15/" target="_blank">Fed's Bostic: More time needed to weigh prospect of rate cut</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing for Eurozone banks: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-banks-their-15-trillion-commercial-property-headache-2024-02-15/" target="_blank">Explainer: European banks and their $1.5 trillion commercial property headache</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions say they're in no rush to start cutting rates: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-needs-more-data-inflation-going-right-direction-lagarde-2024-02-15/" target="_blank">ECB policymakers push back on hasty rate cuts even as inflation falls</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-must-avoid-hasty-rate-cut-says-lagarde-2024-02-15/" target="_blank">ECB must avoid hasty rate cut, says Lagarde</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4067740-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, Dow extend rebound from CPI sell-off to second straight day; S&P closes at record</a></li>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Friday, 16 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-producer-prices-rise-more-than-expected-january-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">Strong services price increases lift US producer inflation in January</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-roughly-flat-unclear-demand-scenario-weighed-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">Oil edges up as geopolitical tensions offsets weaker IEA demand outlook</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions excited to hold rates where they're at until data tells them to start cutting them, getting worried about banks' exposure to distressed commercial real estate: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/traders-see-rising-chance-fed-defers-first-rate-cut-beyond-june-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">Fed seen taking time on rate cuts amid inflation pressures</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-needs-time-data-patience-inflation-fight-daly-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">Fed needs time, data, patience on inflation fight: Daly</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-bostic-open-summer-time-rate-cut-cnbc-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">Fed's Bostic open to summer time rate cut - CNBC</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-barr-says-supervisors-more-aggressive-past-year-focused-commercial-real-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">Fed's Barr says supervisors more aggressive, honing in on interest rate risk</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-federal-reserve-releases-scenarios-2024-bank-stress-tests-2024-02-15/" target="_blank">US Federal Reserve releases scenarios for 2024 bank 'stress tests'</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions say they'll think about ending never-ending stimulus after they hit their inflation target: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bojs-ueda-will-examine-fate-easing-measures-when-price-target-met-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">BOJ's Ueda keeps pledge to review stimulus when inflation goal met</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions say lack of productivity in Eurozone will keep inflation high: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zones-low-productivity-may-slow-inflations-fall-ecbs-schnabel-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">Euro zone's low productivity may slow inflation's fall - ECB's Schnabel</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-nasdaq-futures-rise-ahead-inflation-data-applied-materials-surges-2024-02-16/" target="_blank">Wall Street slides as hot producer price data crimps rate cut bets</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4068324-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end lower after hot PPI data; Wall Street snaps five-week win streak</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
</dl>
<p>The <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow" target="_blank">Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool</a>'s latest estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 (2024-Q1) declined to +2.9% from last week's estimate of +3.4%. </p>
<p>Image Credit: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/an-editorial-cartoon-of-a-worried-wall-street-bull/1-65cfb346f9784a689758c24dccd53c1b?id=XA7R%2f7EjBUN5rhA%2btA4GFQ%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&thId=OIG2.juks8pGMPB_t2oduDY7Q&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">Microsoft Bing Image Generator</a>. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a worried Wall Street bull looking backward over its shoulder at a bear. The bear has the word 'Inflation' written on it." </p>
</div>
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</style>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-72960151626225761202024-02-16T05:18:00.014-05:002024-02-16T05:18:00.145-05:00Outside the Box Thinking: Flying Umbrella Drones<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<p>Umbrellas are an example of a successful and very well established invention. By some estimates, they have been around in their basic form for <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/who-invented-the-umbrella-1992592" target="_blank">over 4,000 years</a>. </p>
<p>That basic form, an assembly of sticks and cloth that can be deployed to provide either shade from the sun or shelter from falling precipitation, has been generally stable over all that time. It consists of a central shaft around which a collapsible frame of ribs with attached fabric is supported. Most modern innovations of umbrella technology represent tinkering improvements to this basic form, mostly with the introduction of new materials like steel and waterproof fabrics. Perhaps the biggest innovation in that form factor came in the 1920s with Hans Haupt's invention of the pocket folding umbrella. Haupt paired a collapsible central shaft with folding ribs in a design that was much more compact and easier to carry. </p>
<p>That doesn't mean the umbrella cannot be improved. Anyone who has used an umbrella knows its main pain point: you have to dedicate the use of at least one of your hands to hold it. </p>
<p>But what if you didn't have to hold an umbrella to use it? What if you could eliminate its central shaft and the need to hold the umbrella altogether? </p>
<p>The answers to those questions are explored by JohnX at his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@ibuildstuff" target="_blank">I Build Stuff Youtube channel</a> in the following <a href="https://youtu.be/qNTv5SgM0BM" target="_blank">ten-minute video</a>. He's taken the umbrella to the next level using modern drone technology and shows the trial and error process of how he developed his prototype: </p>
<div style="text-align: center; margin: 10px auto;">
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qNTv5SgM0BM?si=KlWMHT7BS5UeQ3Tm" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen style="max-width: 100%;"></iframe>
</div>
<p>This is genuine outside the box thinking. While he doesn't quite eliminate the central shaft, he does succeed in minimizing it to fit within the umbrella's canopy. Along with a modified quadricopter drone. </p>
<p>Time will determine if JohnX' prototype flying drone umbrella will become a common, everyday ordinary object. It certainly has potential and we can see where it may have use when combined with hundreds of other flying umbrella drones at outdoor sports events or music performances. Taken to the next level, a fleet of umbrella drones could replace the expensive retractable roofs on modern sports stadiums or keep the next Woodstock music festival from becoming an unholy muddy mess. </p>
<p>HT: <a href="https://www.core77.com/posts/126862/Prototyping-a-Flying-Umbrella" target="_blank">Core77</a>. </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-9274327932875419332024-02-15T05:21:00.008-05:002024-02-15T05:21:00.132-05:00So Goes China's Economy, So Goes Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4wd9K2tRxtklOsoVaAFk6GXYFFiIqS8mhXizHeBPqrpzJKHwmiKDVwWBYIo71GVMT27SxryKyGkmOV9cGRWUaT03hMJvBk6NQAn-9YxZWURInNsANNbNnJbtxTvZWlrWUhRdCMsVAXXZUScv8GhsiXIR76QFQow4kaHvJoO3SHMNV6hBmggIH/s1600/42152_Digital%20art%20concept%20of%20carbon%20dioxide%20emissions%20be_xl-1024-v1-0.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4wd9K2tRxtklOsoVaAFk6GXYFFiIqS8mhXizHeBPqrpzJKHwmiKDVwWBYIo71GVMT27SxryKyGkmOV9cGRWUaT03hMJvBk6NQAn-9YxZWURInNsANNbNnJbtxTvZWlrWUhRdCMsVAXXZUScv8GhsiXIR76QFQow4kaHvJoO3SHMNV6hBmggIH/s1600/42152_Digital%20art%20concept%20of%20carbon%20dioxide%20emissions%20be_xl-1024-v1-0.png" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="Digital art concept of carbon dioxide emissions being used to measure economic growth. Generated with Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta." title="Digital art concept of carbon dioxide emissions being used to measure economic growth." /></a></div>
<p>January 2024 saw the pace at which carbon dioxide accumulates in the Earth's atmosphere increase for the fourth month in a row. The change is consistent with positive economic growth on the planet and China's ongoing efforts to stimulate it's faltering economy in particular. </p>
<p>As the world's large producer of carbon dioxide emissions, largely produced by its <a href="https://www.powermag.com/global-domination-china-accounts-for-nearly-all-new-coal-fired-power-plant-construction/" target="_blank">growing fleet</a> of <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/worldwide-coal-consumption.html" target="_blank">coal-fired</a> electricity generation plants, and also the world's largest exporter of consumer goods, the CO₂ emissions produced as China powers its economy tells us a lot about the state of the global economy. </p>
<p>Since the country lifted its zero-COVID restrictions in late December 2022, its economy has expanded, which has increased the rate of carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere. But it has also faltered, pointing to uneven economic growth within the country. </p>
<p>The following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWdU10XcWZ7UcLGrR4LTKtPehRrEe6KXN2aLvNbkG9SAkJaofG1ovAlKXOkR2Pnl-nzx4Vz8NH96IeUyDJLHqrZUlbfhkc6HEfYVdEHTrNBEUAszUv_gx6ha1TC-OHlhFbcZdKr2B8cKNXFmBwf5zxiYTFCFS5ZCwaRkmSs3rB7hGjELikhpYg/s1600/ttma-yoy-change-ppm-atmo-CO2-200001-202312.png" target="_blank">chart</a> illustrates that effect using the remote Mauna Loa Observatory's measurements of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. We trace that impact as the trailing twelve month average of the year-over-year change in CO₂ accumulation presented against the background of major economic and environmental events. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWdU10XcWZ7UcLGrR4LTKtPehRrEe6KXN2aLvNbkG9SAkJaofG1ovAlKXOkR2Pnl-nzx4Vz8NH96IeUyDJLHqrZUlbfhkc6HEfYVdEHTrNBEUAszUv_gx6ha1TC-OHlhFbcZdKr2B8cKNXFmBwf5zxiYTFCFS5ZCwaRkmSs3rB7hGjELikhpYg/s1600/ttma-yoy-change-ppm-atmo-CO2-200001-202312.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1031" data-original-width="1871" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWdU10XcWZ7UcLGrR4LTKtPehRrEe6KXN2aLvNbkG9SAkJaofG1ovAlKXOkR2Pnl-nzx4Vz8NH96IeUyDJLHqrZUlbfhkc6HEfYVdEHTrNBEUAszUv_gx6ha1TC-OHlhFbcZdKr2B8cKNXFmBwf5zxiYTFCFS5ZCwaRkmSs3rB7hGjELikhpYg/s1600/ttma-yoy-change-ppm-atmo-CO2-200001-202312.png" alt="Trailing Twelve Month Average Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 2000 - January 2024" title="Trailing Twelve Month Average Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 2000 - January 2024" style="display:block; width: 100%; max-width: 1871px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>China's economy has increasingly <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">struggled</a> with deflationary pressures in recent months. Without intervention, these pressures would be expected to slow China's economy, the effects of which would also slow the rate at which the carbon dioxide it produces enters into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>But China's government has a history of staging interventions within the nation that have global impact. The implementation of new, larger economic stimulus efforts <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/what-china-s-persistent-deflation-means-for-the-world" data-alt-URL="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/what-china-s-persistent-deflation-means-for-the-world/ar-BB1hYQsh" target="_blank">could soon be on tap</a>. </p>
<blockquote style="background: #e5e1d9; padding: 0em 1em; border: 1px #940022 dotted; border-left: 8px #940022 solid; box-shadow: 2px 2px 10px #cccccc;">
<p>Beijing responded to past bouts of deflation with forceful monetary easing and big fiscal stimulus measures. China is expected to boost fiscal stimulus again this year, but its plans won’t be clear until a national budget is released in March.... </p>
<p>Economists generally see a need to boost demand for goods and services, with the government either directly channeling more money into the economy or encouraging banks to lend more to businesses and households. Calls are growing for the authorities to adopt more aggressive policies than rate cuts and trims to the amount of money banks must hold in reserve with the central bank — steps already taken in 2023, to modest effect. To durably boost consumer confidence and get people spending, the government will need to end the slump in the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-29/what-s-next-for-china-evergrande-after-liquidation-order" target="_blank">property market</a>. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>How it ultimately does that is something that will almost certainly be able to be measured by how fast the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's air is changing. So goes China's economy, so goes atmospheric carbon dioxide. </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [<a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt" target="_blank">Online Data</a>]. Updated 5 January 2024. </p>
<p>Image credit: Stable Diffusion <a href="https://beta.dreamstudio.ai/generate" target="_blank">DreamStudio Beta</a>. Prompt: "Digital art concept of carbon dioxide emissions being used to measure economic growth." </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-6670267349985143352024-02-14T05:22:00.015-05:002024-02-14T05:22:00.136-05:00Total U.S. Trade with World Shrank in 2023<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgus9p62HY28GgcuB7YShzGaJL7CcSERgnPtuGpwENuaAH4_cUYx-dhUWnfZ8Wz2UVa_daivvdtX4r8SZv0cr5QZ2LGY7EcoWZU27O8DBDQFVComJ07iON_rumBxPDin22GYAcUNRbx3Y0KlTisV3qhcC0ZRHTfJ7kxD27giTnxyu5nN1zhBcH4/s640/Port_of_Seattle_cranes_on_a_sunny_October_day.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgus9p62HY28GgcuB7YShzGaJL7CcSERgnPtuGpwENuaAH4_cUYx-dhUWnfZ8Wz2UVa_daivvdtX4r8SZv0cr5QZ2LGY7EcoWZU27O8DBDQFVComJ07iON_rumBxPDin22GYAcUNRbx3Y0KlTisV3qhcC0ZRHTfJ7kxD27giTnxyu5nN1zhBcH4/s320/Port_of_Seattle_cranes_on_a_sunny_October_day.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="Port of Seattle cranes by Ron Clausen on Wikimedia Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Port_of_Seattle_cranes_on_a_sunny_October_day.jpg" title="Port of Seattle cranes by Ron Clausen on Wikimedia Commons" /></a></div>
<p>The total value of goods the United States exchanged with every other nation on Earth declined in 2023. According to <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0015.html" target="_blank">initial estimates</a> for 2023, the total value of U.S. exports dropped by $48.3 billion from 2022's level to $2,016.8 billion. Total U.S. imports dropped by $158.4 billion to $3,084.1 billion. </p>
<p>The combined net change is a reduction of $206.7 billion, which is the first to be recorded for a calendar year following 2020's Coronavirus Recession. </p>
<p>While the decline in trade with China continues to be the big story for U.S. trade, the overall decline in trade is not limited to just that nation. The net value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and the rest of the world also fell throughout 2023. </p>
<p>The following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWqrPoqULqZ7wuplWuUY0Hnbs1EZngZbzmOSKcy7oOK5Bjc65SV4P67IcsI1uJvKHIKqgYSP6BJlCljxvZnNP8_VxVmL5KgaFlvLqCAgpohEAYizXDb8TNb3fca3krjpAWgzfaLcW0dpc44PjZBv6AsmrTRAejoa2_3_9AM7QpflHVBF7Qg3HO/s1600/combined-value-US-imports-and-exports-total-and-total-without-China-201701-202312.png" target="_blank">chart</a> shows the monthly progression of that decline. The good news is it appears to be leveling out, but the bad news is the trajectory for trade is far below the potential of how high it could have grown during 2023. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWqrPoqULqZ7wuplWuUY0Hnbs1EZngZbzmOSKcy7oOK5Bjc65SV4P67IcsI1uJvKHIKqgYSP6BJlCljxvZnNP8_VxVmL5KgaFlvLqCAgpohEAYizXDb8TNb3fca3krjpAWgzfaLcW0dpc44PjZBv6AsmrTRAejoa2_3_9AM7QpflHVBF7Qg3HO/s1600/combined-value-US-imports-and-exports-total-and-total-without-China-201701-202312.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1033" data-original-width="1423" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWqrPoqULqZ7wuplWuUY0Hnbs1EZngZbzmOSKcy7oOK5Bjc65SV4P67IcsI1uJvKHIKqgYSP6BJlCljxvZnNP8_VxVmL5KgaFlvLqCAgpohEAYizXDb8TNb3fca3krjpAWgzfaLcW0dpc44PjZBv6AsmrTRAejoa2_3_9AM7QpflHVBF7Qg3HO/s1600/combined-value-US-imports-and-exports-total-and-total-without-China-201701-202312.png" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1423px; margin: 10px auto;" alt="Combined Value of U.S. Exports to China and U.S. Imports to World (With and Without China), January 2017 - December 2023" title="Combined Value of U.S. Exports to China and U.S. Imports to World (With and Without China), January 2017 - December 2023" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1423px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Trade between the U.S. and the world has been shrinking since February 2023 as a result of President Biden's <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery/" target="_blank">trade policies</a>. After peaking in February 2023, we estimate the value of goods the U.S. exchanges with the world excluding China has cumulatively fallen by $282 billion with respect to how large it would have grown had it simply continued following its trend from October 2022 through February 2023. </p>
<p>The Biden administration implemented <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-aims-hobble-chinas-chip-industry-with-sweeping-new-export-rules-2022-10-07/" target="_blank">trade restrictions</a> on the export of semiconductor chips to China on 7 October 2022, which is why we use this month as a reference. Since that action primarily affected trade with China, the trend from October 2022 through February 2023 represents a baseline trajectory of how trade was growing between the U.S. and the rest of the world excluding China before the Biden administration's destructive new trade policies were imposed. </p>
<p>When we exclude the value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China, we find the cumulative loss of trade and the rest of the world (without China) from February 2023 through December 2023 adds up to $185.5 billion. In December 2023, the gap between the counterfactual for trade between the U.S. and the world clocked in at $42.0 billion, while the gap in trade between the U.S. and the world excluding China was $30.4 billion. </p>
<h3>References</h3>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census Bureau. <a href="http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html" target="_blank">Trade in Goods with China</a>. Last updated: 7 February 2024. </p>
<p style="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census Bureau. <a href="http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0015.html" target="_blank">Trade in Goods with World, Not Seasonally Adjusted</a>. Last updated: 7 February 2024. </p>
<p>Image credit: <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Port_of_Seattle_cranes_on_a_sunny_October_day.jpg" target="_blank">Port of Seattle cranes</a> by Ron Clausen on Wikimedia Commons. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/en:Creative_Commons" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a> <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en" target="_blank">Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International</a>. </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-50321772048797590312024-02-13T05:03:00.006-05:002024-02-13T05:03:00.133-05:00Winter 2023 Snapshot of the Future for S&P 500 Dividends<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ9aO3MBeJy5e42PZVVRsaubwm4SO5Wqy8yKZjucFeQM_SWMEzvwRHyw8Xwr5X24EDqWyo1FkJdYR0TI-lXnGobFiK8CpV7fsrbX41dzXgMZH1e0aQ0Pcq0byXZ3Uw2avChRy2mBvuesMKEEAokzYHQYZg8EFbfoBwdxTkQ2lAxiTbvFSp3Adu/s1024/165889_A%20fortune%20teller%20who%20predicts%20the%20future%20of%20stock%20_xl-1024-v1-0.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ9aO3MBeJy5e42PZVVRsaubwm4SO5Wqy8yKZjucFeQM_SWMEzvwRHyw8Xwr5X24EDqWyo1FkJdYR0TI-lXnGobFiK8CpV7fsrbX41dzXgMZH1e0aQ0Pcq0byXZ3Uw2avChRy2mBvuesMKEEAokzYHQYZg8EFbfoBwdxTkQ2lAxiTbvFSp3Adu/s320/165889_A%20fortune%20teller%20who%20predicts%20the%20future%20of%20stock%20_xl-1024-v1-0.png" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" alt="A fortune teller who predicts the future of stock market dividends. Generated with Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta." title="A fortune teller who predicts the future of stock market dividends." /></a></div>
<p>We last <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/12/s-500-jumps-after-fed-pivots-on-2024.html" target="_blank">presented a picture</a> of the future for the dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/" target="_blank">SPX</a>) in mid-December 2023. At the time, we commented on how much the brighter the outlook for quarterly dividends had become since we presented our <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/fall-2023-snapshot-of-future-for-s-500.html" target="_blank">regular mid-quarter snapshot</a> of the future for dividends from just a month earlier. </p>
<p>Now that its time for our regularly scheduled quarterly snapshot, let's see how things have changed. We find the outlook for the S&P 500's dividends per share has continued to brighten during the past two months. <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/the-s-500-breaks-through-5000.html" target="_blank">Unlike politics</a>, since expectations for dividends are a fundamental driver of stock prices, this change has provided the underlying momentum needed to boost the index to the new all-time highs it is now hitting. </p>
<p>In the following <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqEIPGDJsbCh2iySpqrED6re2LX0sQHbYxQfDlxBTfRcftkBPJ_dawX2XVu88BftP2PCfjPwHMMdhMxyMMU03HalPNXjlaRpmj3FF0JN_4JENKaSRdwlt42GFoICtgYQU42TxppwJJY0-eoRvXJPEI8uA9c1FkuLoBX5A6c5wo9Us7Rkb0da8t/s1600/animation-past-and-projected-SP500-quarterly-dividends-per-share-2021Q4-2023Q4-snapshot-20231215-20240209.gif" target="_blank">animated chart</a>, we show how much those expectations have changed for each future quarter of 2024. The chart presents both historic (darker blue) and projected (lighter blue) <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/sp-500-quarterly-dividend-index.html" target="_blank">dividend futures data for the S&P 500</a> from CME Group for the period from 2021-Q4 through 2024-Q4. In the chart, while the data for 2023-Q4 changes from a projected value (lighter blue) to a historic value (darker blue), the real action happens in the projections for each quarter of 2024. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqEIPGDJsbCh2iySpqrED6re2LX0sQHbYxQfDlxBTfRcftkBPJ_dawX2XVu88BftP2PCfjPwHMMdhMxyMMU03HalPNXjlaRpmj3FF0JN_4JENKaSRdwlt42GFoICtgYQU42TxppwJJY0-eoRvXJPEI8uA9c1FkuLoBX5A6c5wo9Us7Rkb0da8t/s1600/animation-past-and-projected-SP500-quarterly-dividends-per-share-2021Q4-2023Q4-snapshot-20231215-20240209.gif" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="1000" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqEIPGDJsbCh2iySpqrED6re2LX0sQHbYxQfDlxBTfRcftkBPJ_dawX2XVu88BftP2PCfjPwHMMdhMxyMMU03HalPNXjlaRpmj3FF0JN_4JENKaSRdwlt42GFoICtgYQU42TxppwJJY0-eoRvXJPEI8uA9c1FkuLoBX5A6c5wo9Us7Rkb0da8t/s1600/animation-past-and-projected-SP500-quarterly-dividends-per-share-2021Q4-2023Q4-snapshot-20231215-20240209.gif" alt="Animation: Past and Projected S&P 500 Quarterly Dividends per Share Futures, 2021-Q4 through 2024-Q4, Snapshots on 15 December 2023 and 9 February 2024" title="Animation: Past and Projected S&P 500 Quarterly Dividends per Share Futures, 2021-Q4 through 2024-Q4, Snapshots on 15 December 2023 and 9 February 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 1000px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>Looking at the current quarter of 2024-Q1, the projected cash dividend to be paid to S&P 500 investors by the end of the quarter has risen by 40 cents a share, or by 2.2%, from the $17.88 per share expected on 15 December 2023 to the $18.28 expected as of 9 February 2024. Meanwhile, the other future quarters of 2024 show similar gains. </p>
<p>More remarkably, half that change has taken place since 1 February 2024. That date marks when the megacap company Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/META" target="_blank">META</a>), the S&P 500 component formerly known as Facebook, made the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/facebook-parent-meta-declares-first-ever-dividend-2024-02-01/" target="_blank">surprise announcement</a> it would initiate a dividend payment to its shareholders. The dividend futures data for the S&P 500 responded by jumping 20 cents a share after the announcement to reach the $18.28 per share figure that is currently projected for the quarter. </p>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240201968/meta-stuns-wall-street-with-its-first-dividend-amazon-and-alphabet-could-be-next" target="_blank">some speculation</a> that two of the stock market's other megacap firms, Alphabet (NASDAQ: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG" target="_blank">GOOG</a> and <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOGL" target="_blank">GOOGL</a>) and Amazon (NASDAQ: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN" target="_blank">AMZN</a>) may also initiate a dividend. However it is much too early to say if a phenomenon like the <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-conveyance-effect.html" target="_blank">speculation bubble</a> that preceded the 2013 announcement that Apple (NASDAQ: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL" target="_blank">AAPL</a>) would re-initiate its dividend will repeat in 2024, driven by what investors hope will happen with these two firms. But it is certainly fun to think about! </p>
<h3>More About Dividend Futures Data</h3>
<p>Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2024-Q1 began on Saturday, 16 December 2023 and will end on Friday, 15 March 2024. </p>
<p>That makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/" target="_blank">reported by Standard and Poor</a>. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year. </p>
<p>Image credit: Stable Diffusion <a href="https://beta.dreamstudio.ai/generate" target="_blank">DreamStudio Beta</a>. Prompt: "A fortune teller who predicts the future of stock market dividends." </p>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9496658.post-81712424732563740682024-02-12T05:10:00.067-05:002024-02-12T05:10:00.129-05:00The S&P 500 Breaks Through 5,000<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh665G-ehNr65yR9uy4HD2AoES0pIGlYvHAzlYANnzdTZQ_Ewt8O8xg_mtmVGPZ6BLaZLC_7Xn6yQENgOzT-SEPqVQYXHoU29PwvQS1bv2MPdKTJmoFmj1UW_4STdm6c4DYZ7gS2-lSsmIZo_0DJvljAmQR4jOk7uHzUH_B016xQnSf4tO3LFIH/s1024/_21b33c05-78dd-4af4-b835-e96893c7ff87.jpg" target="_blank"><img border="0" width="200" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh665G-ehNr65yR9uy4HD2AoES0pIGlYvHAzlYANnzdTZQ_Ewt8O8xg_mtmVGPZ6BLaZLC_7Xn6yQENgOzT-SEPqVQYXHoU29PwvQS1bv2MPdKTJmoFmj1UW_4STdm6c4DYZ7gS2-lSsmIZo_0DJvljAmQR4jOk7uHzUH_B016xQnSf4tO3LFIH/s320/_21b33c05-78dd-4af4-b835-e96893c7ff87.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 4px; margin: 2px; background: #ffffff; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;" /></a></div>
<p>The S&P 500 (Index: <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/" target="_blank">SPX</a>) rose a little under 1.4% over its previous week's close, breaking through the 5,000 level on Friday, 9 February 2024 and wrapping up the week at a new high of <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1706832000&period2=1707523200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true" target="_blank">5,026.61</a>. </p>
<p>Much of that boost came on the strength of a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-edge-higher-ahead-revised-2023-inflation-data-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">rally in megacaps</a>, which is to say the stocks of the companies with the <a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/snapshot-of-s-500s-market-cap.html" target="_blank">largest market capitalizations</a> in the U.S. stock market. </p>
<p>The move also coincides with a transition in how far into the future investors are focusing their attention. Investors have shifted their forward time horizon from 2024-Q1 to 2024-Q2. That matches the strengthening expectation the Federal Reserve will hold off on starting a series of rate cuts during the second quarter of 2024. As for why that expectation strengthened, it had a lot to do with Federal Reserve officials sending the message they are going to hold off cutting rates until later in 2024. </p>
<p>Here's the <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBfoHLih85YgRDurUPiruFn0zMNHaAsr6WsC2HmcjSS9OThvwRtkCzJacYTK7b3b3n0VlWHZSkVxJWmHNH3b-uDicBYl4pM7unJbmtyLLIzPZGUIjntHxmfAfX_0Dg6s4ulNWJ4QLzSaDzpfiFkZJCLyyc1s1ptGlyQyZDpSWpboBPfmqkiPcR/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20231208-20240117-focus-2024Q2-shift-to-2024Q1-snapshot-20240209.png" target="_blank">latest update</a> for the alternative futures chart, where we find the trajectory of the S&P 500 is consistent with investors focusing on 2024-Q2 in setting the level of the index. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBfoHLih85YgRDurUPiruFn0zMNHaAsr6WsC2HmcjSS9OThvwRtkCzJacYTK7b3b3n0VlWHZSkVxJWmHNH3b-uDicBYl4pM7unJbmtyLLIzPZGUIjntHxmfAfX_0Dg6s4ulNWJ4QLzSaDzpfiFkZJCLyyc1s1ptGlyQyZDpSWpboBPfmqkiPcR/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20231208-20240117-focus-2024Q2-shift-to-2024Q1-snapshot-20240209.png" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBfoHLih85YgRDurUPiruFn0zMNHaAsr6WsC2HmcjSS9OThvwRtkCzJacYTK7b3b3n0VlWHZSkVxJWmHNH3b-uDicBYl4pM7unJbmtyLLIzPZGUIjntHxmfAfX_0Dg6s4ulNWJ4QLzSaDzpfiFkZJCLyyc1s1ptGlyQyZDpSWpboBPfmqkiPcR/s1600/alternative-futures-SP500-2024Q1-standard-model-m-at-P1_5-from-20230309-redzone-20231208-20240117-focus-2024Q2-shift-to-2024Q1-snapshot-20240209.png" alt="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 9 Feb 2024" title="Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q1 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 9 Feb 2024" style="display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 910px; margin: 10px auto;" /></a></div>
<p>The week came with a big political story in the United States, which broke on Thursday, 8 February 2024. The story is the U.S. Department of Justice's announcement it would not file criminal charges against President Joe Biden for the willful mishandling of classified documents going back to his time as Vice-President during the Obama administration. The special prosecutor investigating the matter declined to file charges in part because of the President's age and failing memory would make it difficult to obtain a conviction in a jury trial. </p>
<p>That announcement was followed with President Biden's evening press conference, which has been described as "<a href="https://www.mediaite.com/opinion/joe-bidens-my-memory-is-fine-press-conference-was-an-all-time-pr-blunder/" target="_blank">an all-time PR blunder</a>" because it <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/09/opinion/biden-age-report-special-counsel.html" target="_blank">raised further questions</a> of his mental acuity and fitness to continue in office. </p>
<p>We're discussing the story to make a point that matters to investors. This is a political story that has a direct bearing on the future of the U.S. government. With the 2024 presidential election campaign well underway and setting up to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, it's a story that can very much affect what investors expect for the future. If Biden steps aside, whether in running for reelection or in even finishing his current term as President, the outcome of that action will create new uncertainties for investors. Increased uncertainty has a <a href="https://www.econ.berkeley.edu/content/firm-debt-structure-can-mitigate-impact-uncertainty-shock" target="_blank">negative effect</a> on stock prices. </p>
<p>All this news broke well ahead of when markets opened on Friday, 9 February 2024, so investors had ample time to absorb its impact. The S&P 500 would rise 0.6% to break through the index' 5,000 milestone and close at an all-time record high that day. For something many might think would have a negative effect, that effect would appear to be minimal. </p>
<p>That's not because investors had somehow mysteriously already priced that new information into the market beforehand. Nor is it because investors are ecstatic at the prospect of a future without Biden as President. Nor is it because investors are rejecting what the DOJ's report and the press conference revealed about President Biden. Historically speaking, unless changes in tax rates are involved, what politics contributes to stock prices is virtually indistiguishable from noise. Noise that gets easily lost among the more serious factors that drive stock prices. </p>
<p>Which is why we almost never feature political headlines when recapping the market-moving news headlines of the week that was, although we're making an exception this week and are presenting three political headlines just to drive that point home. Here are the week's headlines: </p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Monday, 5 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-steady-gaza-ceasefire-talks-even-us-plans-middle-east-strikes-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Oil slips as rate cut caution overshadows Mideast strikes</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-regional-lenders-commercial-real-estate-exposure-spotlight-after-carnage-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">US regional lenders' commercial real estate exposure in spotlight after carnage</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions claim they're being prudent in setting timing for rate cuts in 2024: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/powell-says-fed-can-be-prudent-weighing-rate-cuts-cbs-60-minutes-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Powell says Fed can be 'prudent' in weighing rate cuts -- CBS '60 Minutes'</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-bowman-sees-inflation-falling-calls-caution-rate-cuts-2024-02-02/" target="_blank">Fed's Bowman sees inflation falling, calls for caution on rate cuts</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-kashkari-strong-economy-means-fed-has-time-study-data-before-rate-cuts-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Fed's Kashkari: Strong economy means Fed has time to study data before rate cuts</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-tumbling-prices-push-some-exporters-brink-2024-02-04/" target="_blank">China's tumbling prices push some exporters to the brink</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/why-chinas-national-team-wont-save-spiralling-markets-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Why China's national team won't save spiralling markets</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-brokers-restrict-cross-border-swaps-stocks-plunge-sources-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Exclusive: Chinese brokers restrict cross-border swaps as stocks plunge - sources</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/job-worries-sour-mood-chinese-heading-home-holidays-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Job worries sour mood for Chinese heading home for holidays</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-jan-services-activity-expands-slower-pace-caixin-pmi-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">China's Jan services activity expands at slower pace - Caixin PMI</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/job-worries-sour-mood-chinese-heading-home-holidays-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Job worries sour mood for Chinese heading home for holidays</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-property-developers-sunac-cifi-say-projects-get-local-govt-support-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Distressed Chinese developers get project loan backing as Beijing ramps up support</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-country-garden-says-over-30-projects-have-local-government-support-2024-02-03/" target="_blank">China's Country Garden says over 30 projects have local government support</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Some positive recovery signs in Eurozone: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-economy-showing-some-signs-recovery-pmi-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Euro zone economy showing some signs of recovery -PMI</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4062702-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow slump and yields rise with Fed 'likely overstaying their welcome'</a></li>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Tuesday, 6 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-mostly-flat-blinkens-middle-east-visit-assessed-2024-02-06/" target="_blank">Brent, US crude futures give up some gains on talk of Gaza ceasefire</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4063567-us-oil-production-seen-flat-until-next-year-easing-glut-concerns" target="_blank">U.S. oil production seen flat until next year, easing glut concerns</a></li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4063568-us-natural-gas-slides-to-nine-month-low-as-production-rises-demand-drops" target="_blank">US natural gas slides to nine-month low as production rises, demand drops</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/new-york-fed-sees-signs-trouble-auto-borrowing-overall-debt-level-rises-2024-02-06/" target="_blank">New York Fed sees trouble in auto borrowing as overall debt level rises</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/spate-job-cuts-continues-unabated-big-tech-media-firms-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Spate of job cuts continues unabated at Big Tech, media firms</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions setting the table for rate cuts later in 2024: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-mester-open-rate-cuts-if-clear-inflation-is-easing-further-2024-02-06/" target="_blank">Fed's Mester open to rate cuts if it's clear inflation is easing further</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger bailout developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-regulator-unveils-more-curbs-short-selling-2024-02-06/" target="_blank">China regulator announces more curbs on short-selling</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-stocks-rebound-sharply-renewed-talk-official-support-2024-02-06/" target="_blank">China stocks rebound sharply on renewed talk of official support</a></li>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions thinking about ending never-ending stimulus in 2024: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-track-policy-shift-by-april-helped-by-wage-outlook-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">BOJ on track for policy shift by April, helped by wage outlook</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions follow Fed minions in pushing back on rate cut expectations: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecbs-vujcic-urges-rate-cut-patience-sees-equilibrium-higher-than-past-2024-02-06/" target="_blank">ECB's Vujcic urges rate cut patience, sees 'equilibrium' higher than in past</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-is-confident-next-move-will-be-rate-cut-de-cos-says-2024-02-06/" target="_blank">ECB is confident next move will be rate cut, de Cos says</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-must-be-patient-with-rate-cuts-schnabel-tells-ft-2024-02-07/" target="_blank">ECB must be patient with rate cuts, Schnabel tells FT</a></li>
</ul>
<li>"Some" signs of economic rebound in Eurozone: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-economy-showing-some-signs-recovery-pmi-2024-02-05/" target="_blank">Euro zone economy showing some signs of recovery -PMI</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4063214-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">Nasdaq, S&P, Dow eke out gains as Fed speakers largely reiterate caution on rate cuts</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-subdued-with-focus-pharma-earnings-rate-expectations-2024-02-06/" target="_blank">S&P 500 closes up, focus on earnings and US interest rates</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Wednesday, 7 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-edges-up-smaller-us-output-growth-estimates-2024-02-07/" target="_blank">Oil climbs on US fuel stocks draw, geopolitical tensions</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.cfodive.com/news/yellen-says-commercial-real-estate-losses-may-leave-firms-quite-stressed-Fed/706756/" target="_blank">Yellen says commercial real estate losses may leave banks ‘quite stressed’</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-cuts-nycb-ratings-junk-warns-more-downgrades-2024-02-07/" target="_blank">Moody's cuts NYCB ratings to junk, warns of more downgrades</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/beijings-butchers-glum-bunch-lunar-new-year-meat-sales-slow-2024-02-07/" target="_blank">Beijing's butchers a glum bunch as Lunar New Year meat sales slow</a></li>
</ul>
<li>JapanGov minion claims BOJ minions plan to end never-ending stimulus won't mean stop in fight to end deflation: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-can-retain-deflation-fighting-mandate-even-if-boj-ends-negative-rates-govt-2024-02-06/" target="_blank">Japan can retain deflation-fighting mandate even if BOJ ends negative rates -govt official</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4063999-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones" target="_blank">S&P 500 closes just below historic 5,000 mark as tech stocks rally; Nasdaq, Dow also rise</a></li>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Thursday, 8 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-edges-up-with-slim-progress-gaza-peace-talks-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">Oil up 3% on Gaza ceasefire rejection and US fuel stocks data</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-more-than-expected-last-week-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">US weekly jobless claims stay low despite high-profile layoff announcements</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yellen-sees-more-commercial-real-estate-stress-losses-no-systemic-banking-risk-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">Yellen sees more commercial real estate stress, losses, but no systemic banking risk</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nycb-shares-slide-investor-jitters-despite-promise-cut-cre-exposure-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">NYCB gets third credit downgrade as CRE exposure worries spill to Europe</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions are optimistic but not confident: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-kugler-optimistic-inflation-though-that-remains-policy-focus-2024-02-07/" target="_blank">Fed's Kugler 'optimistic' on inflation, but says more 'confidence' needed</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-barkin-says-hes-cautious-about-accuracy-recent-economic-data-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">Fed's Barkin says he's cautious about accuracy of recent economic data</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-barkin-wants-more-confidence-inflation-before-favoring-rate-cuts-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">Fed's Barkin: Need more time before supporting rate cuts</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-collins-says-rate-cut-could-come-later-this-year-2024-02-07/" target="_blank">Fed's Collins says rate cut could come later this year</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-collins-says-her-baseline-expectation-is-75-bps-rate-cuts-this-year-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">Fed's Collins says her baseline expectation is 75 bps of rate cuts this year</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-policy-shift-needs-farewell-elevated-inflation-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">Fed policy shift needs a farewell to 'elevated' inflation</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-consumer-prices-suffer-steepest-fall-since-2009-deflation-risks-stalk-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">China's consumer prices suffer biggest fall since 2009 as deflation risks stalk economy</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-consumer-prices-fall-08-yy-factory-deflation-persists-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">China's consumer prices fall 0.8% y/y, factory deflation persists</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>BOJ minions say end of never-ending stimulus to be slow, will stop taking so many risks: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/bojs-uchida-rules-out-big-rate-hikes-after-ending-negative-rates-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">BOJ rules out rapid rate hikes, signals ending risky asset buying</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-landlord-tag-warns-home-prices-could-fall-30-peak-2024-02-07/" target="_blank">Exclusive: German landlord TAG warns home prices could fall 30% from peak</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions to stand by before doing anything about bigger developing trouble: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-inflation-may-be-slowing-more-quickly-than-thought-lane-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">ECB needs more inflation evidence before easing: policymakers</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-should-wait-cut-rates-then-take-bet-wunsch-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">ECB should wait to cut rates, then take a bet - Wunsch</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-struggle-direction-ahead-earnings-economic-data-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">S&P 500 ends just shy of 5,000 mark after touching milestone</a></li>
</ul>
</dd>
<dt><b>Friday, 9 February 2024</b></dt>
<dd>
<ul style="list-style-type: square">
<li>Signs and portents for the U.S. economy: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/us/politics/biden-special-counsel-report-documents.html" target="_blank">Special Counsel’s Report Puts Biden’s Age and Memory in the Spotlight</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/2844744/biden-mental-state-questioned-classified-documents-memory-lapses/" target="_blank">Biden’s ‘mental state’ in question after classified documents report and memory lapses</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.mediaite.com/opinion/joe-bidens-my-memory-is-fine-press-conference-was-an-all-time-pr-blunder/" target="_blank">Joe Biden’s ‘My Memory Is Fine’ Press Conference Was An All-Time PR Blunder</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cisco-cut-thousands-jobs-it-seeks-focus-high-growth-areas-sources-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">Exclusive: Cisco to cut thousands of jobs as it seeks to focus on high growth areas</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-december-consumer-prices-revised-lower-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">Mixed US consumer price revisions leave slowing inflation trend intact</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/view-revised-us-december-cpi-gives-fed-bit-more-breathing-room-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">Instant view: Revised US December CPI gives Fed a bit more breathing room</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-headed-weekly-gains-israel-rejects-ceasefire-offer-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">Oil settles up, notches weekly gain on tight supply, Middle East conflict</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Fed minions say no need to hurry on interest rate cuts: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/feds-logan-risks-more-balanced-no-urgency-rate-cuts-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">Fed's Logan: risks more balanced, no urgency on rate cuts</a></li>
</ul>
<li>Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-woes-mount-investment-banks-brace-more-asia-job-cuts-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">As China woes mount, investment banks brace for more Asia job cuts</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-january-new-bank-loans-hit-record-high-policy-support-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">China new bank loans in Jan hit record high on policy support</a></li>
</ul>
<li>ECB minions get data indicating easing inflation in Eurozone: </li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-wage-growth-peak-early-2024-path-further-ahead-unclear-new-ecb-tracker-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">Euro zone wage growth to peak early in 2024, path further ahead unclear -new ECB tracker</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4065215-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_news%7Cline%3A2" target="_blank">S&P consolidates above 5,000 points for first time ever, Nasdaq adds +1%; Dow slips</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-edge-higher-ahead-revised-2023-inflation-data-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">Megacaps rally pushes S&P 500 to first close above 5,000 milestone</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-500-breaches-5000-its-valuation-hits-lofty-levels-well-2024-02-08/" target="_blank">As S&P 500 breaches 5,000, its valuation hits lofty levels as well</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/sp-500-q4-2023-earnings-growth-now-seen-9-year-over-year-lseg-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">S&P 500 Q4 2023 earnings growth now seen at 9% year over year -LSEG</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-st-week-ahead-market-breadth-suggests-narrowing-rally-sp-500-hits-records-2024-02-09/" target="_blank">Wall St Week Ahead: Market breadth suggests narrowing rally as S&P 500 hits records</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</dd>
</dl>
<p>The CME Group's <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank">FedWatch Tool</a> continues to project the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 1 May 2024 (2024-Q2). This date marks the anticipated beginning of a series of quarter point rate cuts that are expected to take place at six-to-twelve-week intervals through the end of 2024. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow" target="_blank">Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool</a>'s latest estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 (2024-Q1) dropped to +3.4% from last week's estimate of +4.2%. </p>
<p>Image credit: <a href="https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-wall-street-bull-celebrating-the-s26p-500-rising-/1-65c7b4f99ac84e1397716d60202d82a3?id=5p3leRcWN9FsVvuHfeOcLQ%3d%3d&view=detailv2&idpp=genimg&idpclose=1&frame=sydedg&FORM=SYDBIC" target="_blank">Microsoft Bing Image Creator</a>. Prompt: "A Wall Street bull celebrating the S&P 500 rising above 5,000, with the number 5,000 and the letters S&P prominently displayed." </p>
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