Unexpectedly Intriguing!
26 June 2008

When we last looked at the present odds of the U.S. being in recession, we found that the likelihood of a recession was beginning to wane. Two weeks later, the odds as determined one year ago using a method developed by Jonathan Wright that the U.S. would be in recession right now has plunged below 40%, after previously peaking at 50% back on 4 April 2008:

Forecast Recession Probability vs Applicable Dates, 25 June 2005 through 25 June 2009

More about Wright's Model B method for determining the probability of recession one year into the future here.

Betting prediction market Intrade's 2008 recession contract is available here.


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