Unexpectedly Intriguing!
20 November 2008

Here's the latest (through September 2008) showing how the decelerating economies of both the U.S. and China are resulting in much slower trade growth between the two nations:

Annualized Growth Rates of US-China Trade, January 1985 through September 2008

For the month of September 2008, we see that the growth rate of China's exports to the U.S. are currently surging, even though the overall growth rate is nearing zero. The current surge is a seasonal pattern - with so many consumer goods produced in China, many are shipped to the U.S. in advance of the Christmas shopping season. Typically, China's exports to the U.S. peak in the month of October for any given year, with September often close behind.

That seasonal surge however is not enough to offset the overall trend we see. Here, we see that the growth rate of China's exports to the U.S. are now approaching a level of zero, which confirms that the U.S. economy has slowed dramatically. By contrast, a growing economy demands more goods, which results in the level of imported goods growing over time.

Looking at the reverse direction, we find that U.S. exports to China plunged in September 2008, with the trailing year growth rate falling in negative territory. This indicates that the value of U.S. goods and services exported to China for September 2008 is less than that of a year prior. As we see, this happens periodically, with the last negative growth rate recorded in July 2007.

Looking at the trend of U.S. exports to China, we find that it is slowing but still in positive territory. This indicates that China's economy is still growing, although at a slower pace than it had been previously.

Elsewhere, Tyler Cowen offers more facts regarding China trade.

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.