Unexpectedly Intriguing!
August 18, 2011

What can international trade data tell us about the current state of the U.S. economy?

Quite a lot, actually! Previously, we found that we can use the change in the growth rate of U.S. imports from and U.S. exports to China to diagnose the economic health of each nation. We found that when an economy is growing, it will draw in a goods and services from outside its borders at a growing rate, while the opposite appears to be true for an economy that is contracting.

The chart below shows what we see for the U.S. and China through June 2011:

Annualized Growth Rates of U.S.-China Trade, January 1985 through June 2011

What we observe is that the economies of both the U.S. and China continue to realize slowing rates of trade growth, indicating that both economies are continuing to decelerate. The rate at which China's more strongly growing economy is pulling in goods and services from the United States is falling from the levels recorded in 2010, however the big story is found in the more severely falling level of China's exports to the United States.

We now observe that the growth rate of U.S. imports from China is at near-recessionary levels, confirming the declining economic situation of the United States through the first half of 2011. If we follow the current trend back to its peak, we observe that the decline really began in the middle of 2010.

As we've seen with the current U.S. employment situation, for all practical purposes, there has effectively been no sustained improvement in the U.S. economy since that time.


About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.