For the S&P 500, the week ending 25 September 2015 went pretty much as well expected, as the index' value remained well within the range we indicated it most likely be a week ago.
Really, the most interesting day of the week was Friday, 25 September 2015, when stock prices opened the day up thanks to Janet Yellen's speech the evening before, in which she indicated that the Fed would seek to raise interest rates before the end of 2015-Q4.
But then, something overrode that expectation after 2:08 PM that day, and the S&P actually closed lower for the fourth consecutive day, as whatever was plaguing health insurers and pharmaceutical companies throughout the day caught up to the bigger market-cap players in those industries.
Speaking of which, four consecutive down days is something that the market has only a 1.3% (or a 1 in 73) chance of doing.
And while the range we indicated left plenty of room for the market to have one or more up days, our model suggests things should be a little bit better through the end of the month. At least in the absence of a significant change in the expected future dividends that are the fundamental driver of stock prices or an outburst of market moving noise, where the worst outcome would be news that drove investors to focus upon 2016-Q1 for whatever reason.
Most likely, unless new information resolves the current split in the forward-looking focus of investors, the actual trajectory of stock prices will fall somewhere between the trajectories indicated for a strong focus on either 2015-Q4 or 2016-Q1. Janet Yellen tried her best, but alas, fell short.
And with that, we won't be discussing the S&P 500's actual trajectory during the next couple of weeks, as we'll be jumping ahead in time to check back in with the index after 2015-Q4's earnings season is officially underway, and also because we already have.
Tenses are difficult, aren't they?
Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:
ironman at politicalcalculations.com
Thanks in advance!
This year, we'll be experimenting with a number of apps to bring more of a current events focus to Political Calculations - we're test driving the app(s) below!
This site is primarily powered by:
CSS Validation
RSS Site Feed
JavaScript
The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
Other Cool Resources
Blog Roll
- Philips 10.5W (65W) BR30 Indoor Flood LED Light Bulb
- Philips 424382 11-watt A19 LED Household Dimmable Light Bulb, Soft White
Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.
