Unexpectedly Intriguing!
May 30, 2017

With the long Memorial Day weekend holiday looming on the calendar, Week 4 of May 2017 was a slow week where trading the S&P 500 was concerned.

When the biggest news of the week was the release of the minutes from the Fed's Open Market Committee meeting three weeks earlier, the most significant market reaction was for investors to once again align their focus on 2017-Q2 in setting the level of the S&P 500, which coincides with the expected timing of the Fed's next short term rate hike.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2017Q2 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 26 May 2017

After that, with traders looking to get away for the long weekend, there wasn't much else of note that happened in the fourth week of May 2017....

Monday, 22 May 2017
Tuesday, 23 May 2017
Wednesday, 24 May 2017
Thursday, 25 May 2017
Friday, 26 May 2017

Barry Ritholtz lists the week's positives and negatives in his weekly economic data roundup.

On a cautionary note, the S&P 500's ticking clock problem to which we've been alluding in recent weeks not gone away, so as long as the "Fed's Kaplan" way of thinking continues to influence how far forward in time investors focus their attention, with both the third and fourth quarters in play for the timing of the Fed's next rate hike after the almost certain one to be announced in June 2017. As such, the market is at a heightened risk for a sudden increase in volatility.

We'll see what happens in the holiday-shortened fifth week of May 2017!

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