Unexpectedly Intriguing!
August 17, 2017

Now that we're just past the halfway point for the third quarter of 2017, let's take a quick look to see how the pace of dividend cuts in 2017-Q3 compares with the year-ago quarter of 2016-Q3. The following chart shows the data we compiled for both periods from Seeking Alpha's Dividend News resource and the Wall Street Journal's Dividend Declarations database.

Cumulative Announced Dividend Cuts in U.S. by Day of Quarter, 2017-Q3 versus 2016-Q3

Compared to the third quarter of 2016, the pace of dividend cuts in the third quarter of 2017 are slightly ahead of the pace set a year ago, with the current level being consistent with recessionary conditions being present within the U.S. economy.

Looking to see which companies among the 26 that have announced dividend cuts at this point of 2017-Q3 can tell us where those recessionary conditions might be found, where we find a strong concentration in two industries of the U.S. economy: the oil and gas production sector with 19, and the financial industry with 6, although most of these are firms with significant real estate holdings, such as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).

If you're doing the math at home, the dividend cuts announced in those two industries add up to 25. The remaining firm in our sample is gun manufacturer Sturm Ruger (NYSE: RGR), which reflects the decline in U.S. gun sales since President Obama's exit from office, which has also negatively impacted sporting goods retailers.

Considering the elephant in the room however, we can identify the decline oil prices during 2017 as the primary contributing factor to the increase in distress in the U.S. oil and gas industry, where sustained crude oil prices below $50 per barrel have been putting that industry's margins under pressure.

As for the REITs, the Federal Reserve's series of interest rate increases since November 2016 would appear to be pinching the profit margins in that sector of the economy, although the exposure to distress appears limited at this time.

Finally, comparing the pace of dividend cuts in 2017-Q3 to what we observed during the first two quarters of 2017, we find that the current level of announced dividend cuts is about the same at this point of time as what we saw in both 2017-Q1 and 2017-Q2, although it had been slightly faster during the earlier part of the quarter.

Data Sources

Seeking Alpha Market Currents. Filtered for Dividends. [Online Database]. Accessed 16 August 2017.

Wall Street Journal. Dividend Declarations. [Online Database]. Accessed 16 August 2017.

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.