Unexpectedly Intriguing!
November 6, 2017

Another week, more record highs for the S&P 500 (Index: INX), including a new high closing value for the S&P 500 on Friday, 3 November 2017!

Google Finance: S&P 500 from 2017-10-30 through 2017-11-03

And the S&P 500 continued to behave predictably....

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2017Q3 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 03 November 2017

The S&P 500 continues to track along near the upper end of the range we predicted it would if investors remained focused on the expectations associated with the distant future quarter of 2018-Q2. This quarter is currently expected to feature the Fed's first rate hike in 2018, which will follow the now all-but-certain next rate hike set for the current quarter, which will most likely be announced at the conclusion of the Fed's 13 December 2017 meeting.

Probabilities for Target Federal Funds Rate at Selected Upcoming Fed Meeting Dates (CME FedWatch on 3 November 2017)
FOMC Meeting Date Current
100-125 bps 125-150 bps 150-175 bps 175-200 bps 200-225 bps 225-250 bps
13-Dec-2017 (2017-Q4) 0.0% 96.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12-Mar-2018 (2018-Q1) 0.0% 57.3% 40.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
13-Jun-2018 (2018-Q2) 0.0% 34.0% 46.3% 18.1% 1.6% 0.1%
26-Sep-2018 (2018-Q3) 0.0% 23.8% 42.1% 26.4% 6.9% 0.7%

As for the week that was, not much in the way of unexpected happenings occurred. Outside of an initial noisy reaction, the release of the proposed tax cut bill early on Thursday, 2 November 2017 had little effect on stock prices, indicating little surprise on the part of investors. Likewise, President Trump's decision to appoint Jerome Powell to succeed Janet Yellen as the Federal Reserve's next chair wasn't surprising either. More on those stories in our selection of the week's more notable potential market-moving news....

Monday, 30 October 2017
Tuesday, 31 October 2017
Wednesday, 1 November 2017
Thursday, 2 November 2017
Friday, 3 November 2017

The Big Picture's Barry Ritholtz notes the week's positives and negatives for the U.S. economy and markets - it was a week with far more positives than negatives!

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Charities We Support
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives
Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.