The S&P 500 in the Final Week of 2018-Q2

We know that this next week will be a holiday week for U.S. markets, so we're just going to go straight to the charts this week to recap the fourth and final week of June 2018!

Because we're at the end of 2018-Q2, it's also time to look ahead into the alternative futures of 2018-Q3....

We've added a "redzone" forecast to our 2018-Q3 alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart, which we periodically do when the projected trajectories we indicate are skewed due to the past volatility of stock prices, which occurs because we incorporate historic stock prices as the base reference points from which we project the future in our forecasting model.

In this case, we've assumed that investors will remain largely focused on the distant future quarter of 2019-Q1 in setting current-day stock prices, where we think our model's projections will undershoot the actual trajectory that the S&P 500 will take. At least in the period from 28 June 2018 through 16 July 2018.

Let's get to the week's more notable market-moving headlines of Week 4 of June 2018.

Monday, 25 June 2018

• Oil drops as market braces for more OPEC crude and Wall Street slips
• Trade Wars Noise:
  • US-China Relations: Trump Administration To Restrict Chinese Investment In US Tech Companies
  • U.S. Treasury's Mnuchin says new investment curbs not specific to China
  • China’s Xi Tells CEOs He’ll Strike Back at U.S.
  • Trump adviser Navarro says investment restrictions won't be global
• S&P 500, Nasdaq tumble as tech leads Wall Street lower

Tuesday, 26 June 2018

• Oil surges as U.S. pushes allies to halt imports of Iranian crude
• Fed's Kaplan says policy is still accommodative
• Fed minions' views on President Trump's trade wars:
  • Fed's Kaplan says China is real threat on trade
  • Atlanta Fed's Bostic: Trade moves raising downside risk to U.S. economy
• BEA's assessment of President Trump's tax cuts:
  • Thanks To Tax Cuts, Companies' Overseas Profits Now Flooding Back To U.S.
• Energy leads Wall Street rebound as trade worries ease

Wednesday, 27 June 2018

• Oil rallies as supply disruptions seen from Canada to Libya
• Fed's Rosengren warns against running U.S. economy above capacity
• Fed's Rosengren: Gradual rate rises reduces risk of major error
• Wall Street tumbles on renewed U.S.-China trade jitters

Thursday, 28 June 2018

• U.S. oil dips as markets well supplied despite strong demand, outages
• Chance for continued U.S. job gains an argument for low rates: Fed's Bullard
• QE lives! U.S. Fed buys $2.6 billion of mortgage bonds, sells none
• Wall Street advances with help from technology, financials

Friday, 29 June 2018

• U.S. oil prices hit three-and-a-half-year high on concern over Iran sanctions
• Trump says expects another tax overhaul 'probably in October'
• Wall Street ekes out gain as Nike surges

Meanwhile, Barry Ritholtz has summarized positives and negatives to be found in the economics and markets news for Week 4 of June 2018!

On a programming note, we're going to be "market-lite" this week, where we'll be featuring some more fun related items, particularly later in the week.