19 May 2021

Spring 2021 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

Standard and Poor's newest forecast projects a full earnings recovery for the index' earnings per share by June 2021. In addition, S&P is projecting much more robust earnings growth than they were three months ago.

Forecasts for S&P 500 Trailing Twelve Month Earnings per Share, December 2017-December 2022, Snapshot on 12 May 2021

The more robust earnings growth can best be seen in the trailing year earnings per share projected for December 2021. Three months ago, S&P anticipated that figure would be $153.86 per share. Its 12 May 2021 projection indicates the year end earnings figure will reach $174.87 per share.

If that outcome is realized, it would put the S&P 500's trailing twelve month earnings per share nearly back on the trajectory that S&P projected back in February 2020, before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic recession hammered corporate earnings in the U.S.

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 12 May 2021. Accessed 14 May 2021. (As a bonus for this edition, if you follow the link to the spreadsheet before his next update, you'll find Howard's photo celebrating the arrival of springtime in New York City.)