11 January 2024

Rising CO₂ in Air Points to China Economic Recovery

El Niño causing drought in Indonesia leading to wildfires. Image generated with Microsoft Bing Image Generator.

The rate at which carbon dioxide accumulates in the Earth's atmosphere is directly affected by human activities. Increasingly, that measure tells us about human activities in China, the world's biggest source of carbon dioxide emissions by a widening margin.

But it's not the only contributor. Environmental events like El Niño can also lead to additional increases in the amount of carbon dioxide measured in the atmosphere.

In December 2023, the trailing twelve month average of the year-over-year change in the concentration of carbon dioxide measured in the Earth's atmosphere rose by 2.55 parts per million, the highest level recorded since December 2020. Not uncoincidentally, China's other exports increased for a second month as the Chinese economy showed signs of recovery following several sluggish months.

The following chart presents the trajectory of CO₂ accumulation in the Earth's air against the context of major economic and environmental events during the 21st Century:

Trailing Twelve Month Average Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 2000 - December 2023

For greater context, let's expand the picture to cover the period since January 1960!

Trailing Twelve Month Average Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 2000 - December 2023

We've made a point of emphasizing El Niño events since we're currently living through one, which took hold in May 2023. Hopefully, the world will escape the surge of CO₂ addition that comes from El Niño drought-worsened wildfire events in Indonesia that produced the biggest spikes recorded in the pace of atmospheric CO₂ accumulation since 1960. At this point, it hasn't contributed much excess CO₂ to the atmosphere, but it is apparently flirting with becoming a "super El Niño" that may have a bigger impact.

References

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Online Data]. Updated 5 January 2024.

Image credit: Microsoft Bing Image Generator. Prompt: "El Niño causing drought in Indonesia leading to wildfires."