If anything noteworthy happened to the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), you wouldn't know it from how the index changed over the past trading week.
The S&P 500 closed at 5,304.72 on the Friday before 2024's Memorial Holiday weekend. That was an increase of 1.45 points above where the index closed the preceding week. But that 0.03% gain was enough for the S&P to "eke out" its fifth consecutive "up" week.
In between Friday, May 17 and Friday, May 24, the index set a new record high close of 5,321.41 on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. After which it retreated a full percentage point over the next two days as prospects for rate cuts in 2024 slipped. And then it recovered on Friday to "eke" out that five-week-long win streak. No real explanation for it, other than the bulls and bears on Wall Street were more than ready to go off on their holiday weekends and didn't want to make any waves before they left.
The week's action puts the trajectory of the S&P 500 well within the forecast range for investors focusing their attention on 2024-Q3, which still coincides with Wall Street's expectations for when the the Federal Reserve will execute a rate cut. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows where things stand as Wall Street's summer begins:
Here are the week's market-moving headlines, such as they were, which describe a lot more exciting action than we just did....
- Monday, 20 May 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil steadies after death of Iran's president, Saudi king's ill health
- US regulators reconsider capital hike for big banks, WSJ reports
- Fed minions "disappointed" with inflation, want more time before they start cutting rates:
- Fed policymakers still cautious on inflation and policy
- Fed's Barr: Inflation data 'disappointing,' tight policy needs more time
- Bailout, economic recovery not as big as wanted in China:
- China's property support measures disappoint
- China's fiscal revenue shrank 2.7% in Jan-April amid shaky economic recovery
- Slump in China's home prices, sales set to worsen this year - Reuters poll
- Dow ends lower and falls back below 40,000 while S&P and Nasdaq advance
- Tuesday, 21 May 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices fall on fear of high US interest rates depressing demand
- U.S. auto insurance shoppers jump 6% in Q1, TransUnion says
- Fed minions say they're not just doing nothing, they're not hiking rates:
- Fed officials urge patience on timing of initial rate cut
- Fed's Waller sees some progress on inflation, no rate hike needed
- US households still feel pinched by inflation, Fed survey says
- Bigger bailout developing in China:
- "Good news, everyone!" say ECB minions:
- ECB's Lagarde 'really confident' inflation under control
- Back-to-back ECB rate cuts not a given, Nagel says
- Dow ekes out gain, Nasdaq and S&P notch record closing high a day ahead of Nvidia results
- Wednesday, 22 May 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil slips for third day on likely 'higher for longer' US rates
- US home sales post second straight monthly drop; house prices accelerate
- Fed minions becoming less sure of what they'll do next:
- Fed shifts talk to 'scenarios' as policy grows less certain
- Fed Officials Saw Longer Wait for Rate Cuts After Inflation Setbacks
- BOJ minions see interest rates rise to highest in decade:
- Stocks fall after Fed minutes; Nvidia shares climb after the bell
- Thursday, 23 May 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil creeps back up after three days of losses
- US new home sales fall in April; prices rise from year ago
- Improved business activity casts doubt over rate cuts
- Fed minions thinking they should worry about inflation more:
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ minions see problems for themselves among green shoots in Japan's economy:
- Japan's factory activity expands for first time in a year, PMI shows
- Japan factory output seen up, inflation complicates BOJ exit: Reuters poll
- Japan's inflation slows further, keeping BOJ cautious on rate hikes
- BOJ's Ueda sticks to economic recovery view, keeps alive rate hike chance
- Signed of improvement in Eurozone economy:
- Whipsawed on Wall Street:
- How the day started:
- How it ended:
- But there was one big winner in an otherwise down day:
- What ruined the bulls party:
- Friday, 24 May 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US's Yellen expresses concern over rising living costs, FT says
- Oil holds steady around three-month lows
- Fed minions starting to realize they may not have done enough to combat President Biden's inflation:
- Fed's Waller points to forces that may lift future underlying interest rates
- Central bankers should acknowledge blind spots, Fed's Mester says
- ECB minions getting excited to deliver a rate cut, won't let rising wages stop them:
- ECB's Panetta says consensus growing on need for rate cut
- Wage pick up won't jeopardize ECB's June rate cut, Nagel says
- S&P ekes out five-week win streak while Nasdaq ends at a record high; Dow gains slightly
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued holding steady in anticipating the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 18 September (2024-Q3) for the fourth week in a row. The tool anticipates the Fed will start a series of 0.25% rate cuts on that date that will proceed well into 2025 at 12-to-18 week intervals.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's forecast of annualized real GDP growth rate during 2024-Q2 ticked down to 3.5% from the +3.6% growth it projected in a week earlier.
Image credit: Microsoft Bing Image Creator. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear relaxing on lounge chairs at the beach during the Memorial Day holiday weekend".