30 September 2024

Arrival of China's Stimulus Boosts S&P 500

An editorial cartoon of a smiling Wall Street bull looking at a news ticker in Times Square that says 'CHINA TO STIMULATE ECONOMY'. Image generated with Microsoft Copilot Designer.

The biggest market moving story for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in the final full trading week of September 2024 continued to be the stimulus measures the Chinese government will use to boost China's troubled economy. That story similar to what played out last week, with one key difference. Instead of leaving it up to speculation for what they would do, China's government followed through and rolled out several measures to juice the country's economy.

That boosted stock prices, especially in China and throughout Asia, which saw their best week since 2008. But lots of U.S. companies will benefit from increased economic activity in China, which is why the S&P 500 climbed along with news of China's stimulus rollout on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. The index ended the week up 0.6% from the previous week at 5,738.17. The S&P even a new record high of 5,745.37 on Thursday before retreating a little over 0.1% to close the week.

That small increase was enough to keep the index' trajectory tracking along in the upper portion of the redzone forecast range indicated in the latest update of the alternative futures chart.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q3 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 27 Sep 2024

Here's a more complete sampling of the market-moving news headlines from the week that was.

Monday, 23 September 2024
Tuesday, 24 September 2024
Wednesday, 25 September 2024
Thursday, 26 September 2024
Friday, 27 September 2024

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects more rate cuts ahead. It projects better than even odds of another half point rate cut on 7 November 2024, followed by a continuing series of 0.25%-0.50% rate cuts at approximate six-to-12-week intervals well into 2025.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 rose to +3.1% from the previous week's forecast of +2.9% growth.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a smiling Wall Street bull looking at a news ticker in Times Square that says 'CHINA TO STIMULATE ECONOMY'" We tweaked the text in the image to say ‘CHINA STIMULATES ECONOMY’ to make it up to date for this week.