The biggest market moving story for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in the final full trading week of September 2024 continued to be the stimulus measures the Chinese government will use to boost China's troubled economy. That story similar to what played out last week, with one key difference. Instead of leaving it up to speculation for what they would do, China's government followed through and rolled out several measures to juice the country's economy.
That boosted stock prices, especially in China and throughout Asia, which saw their best week since 2008. But lots of U.S. companies will benefit from increased economic activity in China, which is why the S&P 500 climbed along with news of China's stimulus rollout on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. The index ended the week up 0.6% from the previous week at 5,738.17. The S&P even a new record high of 5,745.37 on Thursday before retreating a little over 0.1% to close the week.
That small increase was enough to keep the index' trajectory tracking along in the upper portion of the redzone forecast range indicated in the latest update of the alternative futures chart.
Here's a more complete sampling of the market-moving news headlines from the week that was.
- Monday, 23 September 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil settles lower on weak euro zone business activity
- US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 15-Month Lows; Prices Are Soaring Again
- Fed minions really worried about jobs in U.S. and will keep cutting rates because of their fears, really don't want to be holding so many Mortgage Backed Securities:
- Fed officials say risks to jobs warranted rate cut as debate shifts to pace of easing
- Fed's Kashkari says 50 basis points rate cut was 'right decision'
- Fed paper sketches out slow slog to unload central bank's mortgage bonds
- Bigger stimulus slowly developing in China:
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions say Eurozone exports can't compete well enough:
- Euro zone business activity unexpectedly contracts in September, PMI shows
- Euro zone exporters facing persistent competitiveness struggle, ECB says
- Nasdaq, S&P, Dow ended slightly higher in a rather muted trading session
- Tuesday, 24 September 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil climbs on China stimulus, Middle East conflict and hurricane risk
- Fed's rate cut offers limited relief for US factories facing China competition
- US fiscal profile set to weaken under next administration, Moody's says
- US monthly house prices edge up in July
- Bigger stimulus finally arrives in China:
- China's central bank unveils most aggressive stimulus since pandemic
- China Panics: Cuts Multiple Rates And Reserve Ratio Requirements, Goes All-In To Prop Up Stocks
- China's central bank unveils broad easing measures to revive economy
- China stimulus pushes global shares to new peak, boosts commodities
- China's bigger troubles showing up in Japan, BOJ says they won't rush to raise Japan's already low interest rates:
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions thinking they'll need to cut rates well into 2025:
- Exclusive: German economy expected to contract again in 2024, say sources
- ECB's Knot sees rate cuts through the first half of 2025
- S&P 500, Dow close at new highs as mining stocks rise on China stimulus boost
- Wednesday, 25 September 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Shippers scramble for workarounds ahead of looming US East Coast port strike
- US 30-year mortgage rate slips to 6.13%, refinancing jumps
- Oil declines as investors weigh whether new China stimulus will boost demand
- Worries develop over possibility Fed minions 'outsize' rate cut will enable inflation:
- Fed's bumper rate cut revives 'reflation specter' in US bond market
- Fed's Kugler strongly supported half-percentage-point rate cut
- Bigger stimulus not enough to offset bigger trouble developing in China?
- China's monetary volleys miss key threat to economic growth
- China weighs injecting $142 bln of capital into top banks, Bloomberg News reports
- BOJ minions waiting for new political leadership to set direction:
- ECB minions get data to support their next rate cut in October:
- Dow, S&P 500 end lower, back off record highs; Nasdaq edges up
- Thursday, 26 September 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices slide on prospects Saudi Arabia to raise output
- US second-quarter economic growth unrevised; GDI revised sharply higher
- US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dips to 6.08%, lowest since Sept 2022
- Fed minions thinking about how to make emergency funds more easily available to banks, how to shrink their balance sheet, and how to better use interest rate benchmarks:
- Fed's discount window can be normal funding source for banks, Barr says
- NY Fed's Perli says there is plenty of room left to run in shrinking Fed holdings
- Fed's Williams announces new effort on reference rates
- Bigger stimulus rolling out in China:
- ECB minions thinking about when, how much to cut Eurozone interest rates:
- Wall Street ticks to another record as stocks worldwide rally
- Friday, 27 September 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US consumer spending, inflation rise moderately in August
- Oil steady but set for weekly drop on higher supply outlook
- Fed minions increasingly expected to deliver another half point rate cut in November 2024:
- Bigger trouble leads to bigger stimulus developing in China:
- China's industrial profits suffer biggest slump this year, adds to economic woes
- China launches late stimulus push to meet 2024 growth target
- BOJ minions bracing to continue keeping interest rates in Japan low:
- Japan factory output seen down on weak overseas demand, typhoon disruptions: Reuters poll
- Core inflation in Japan's capital matches BOJ target
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone leading ECB minions to think about cutting rates again:
- S&P 500 ends week up more than 1% as favorable data, China stimulus ripple through markets
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects more rate cuts ahead. It projects better than even odds of another half point rate cut on 7 November 2024, followed by a continuing series of 0.25%-0.50% rate cuts at approximate six-to-12-week intervals well into 2025.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 rose to +3.1% from the previous week's forecast of +2.9% growth.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a smiling Wall Street bull looking at a news ticker in Times Square that says 'CHINA TO STIMULATE ECONOMY'" We tweaked the text in the image to say ‘CHINA STIMULATES ECONOMY’ to make it up to date for this week.