The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) reached a new height to mark the end of the second week of October 2024. The index closed at a new all time record high of 5,815.03 on Friday, 11 October 2024, a 1.1% increase over where it closed in the previous week.
Most of that week-over-week gain came on Friday as both JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of New York (NYSE: BNY), as both banks beat profit estimates, which was unexpected news.
Aside from that surprise, the rest of the week was characterized by a lot of chatter by Federal Reserve officials, who aimed to set expectations for smaller rate cuts in the remaining months of 2024.
How the rest of earnings season plays out remains to be seen, but this week, it's good earnings news that has Wall Street bulls considering the prospect of higher highs in the quarter ahead. Which coincidentally, is what the latest update of the alternative futures chart projects lies ahead during this quarter.
For now, the trajectory of the S&P 500 lies within the redzone forecast range we added several weeks ago, which we expect to continue until it runs out in three weeks.
There was more information for investors to absorb during the week that was, here's our summary of its market moving headlines.
- Monday, 7 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions say more rate cuts ahead are "appropriate":
- Fed's Williams says appropriate again to cut rates 'over time', FT reports
- Fed's Musalem argues for more rate cuts, says data to drive easings
- Bigger stimulus getting some traction in China:
- BOK minions gearing up for a rate cut:
- BOJ minions rate hikes expected to cause little damage Japanese economy:
- ECB minions getting excited to cut Eurozone interest rates again:
- ECB will probably cut rates in Oct on risk of too low inflation: Villeroy
- Bundesbank's Nagel says he is open to another ECB rate cut
- Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow concluded lower as geopolitical tensions rise and CPI data lurks
- Tuesday, 8 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Crude prices slide over 4% on possible Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire
- US bank profits to shrink on interest income, focus shifts to Fed cuts
- US candy companies favor gummies, licorice over pricey Halloween chocolates
- Fed minions see cooling U.S. job market, more rate cuts ahead:
- US jobs market cooling but still resilient, Fed's Kugler says
- Fed's Collins expects more rate cuts amid confidence inflation is easing
- Fed's Bostic says labor market slowing but not slow, jobs gains 'robust'
- Bigger trouble developing in China after expected stimulus isn't delivered:
- ECB minions expected to deliver two Eurozone rate cuts in remainder of 2024:
- S&P, Nasdaq end up 1%, Dow up as oil slides on China stimulus letdown, Middle East unease
- Wednesday, 9 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil slips as strong supply counters Middle East and hurricane risk
- US 30-year mortgage rate jumps to 6.36%, biggest weekly gain in 15 months
- Fed minions say their rate cuts are about propping up job market, expect to need to deliver more:
- A 'substantial majority' of Fed favored large cut in Sept, minutes show
- Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: rate cut aimed at keeping US job market strong
- Fed's Collins expects more rate cuts amid confidence inflation is easing
- Fed's Daly sees one or two more interest rate cuts this year
- Fed's Logan calls for 'gradual' rate cuts, says 'should not rush'
- Fed's Collins expects more rate cuts amid confidence inflation is easing
- Not big enough stimulus developing in China:
- China's runaway rally stutters; commodities and global shares subdued
- China September bank lending set to rise on policy support
- ECB minions getting excited to Eurozone interest rates again, get data to contradict their desire:
- ECB policymakers press case for October rate cut
- German exports rise in August, defying expectations of decline
- S&P ends at record high, Dow up 1% after Fed minutes show majority backed 50bp rate cut
- Thursday, 10 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- September CPI rises more than expected, indicating inflation risks remain
- 2 Warm Sept CPI inflation chills outlook for dovish Fed
- Core Producer Price Inflation Hotter Than Expected; Food Costs Surge
- Oil prices jump 4% on US storm and Israel-Iran fears
- Domino's Pizza posts smaller-than-expected rise in comparable sales as demand stutters
- US weekly jobless claims surge amid Hurricane Helene distortions
- Fed minions say never mind inflation running hot, they're on course for more rate cuts:
- Bigger trouble developing in China:
- BOJ minions claim they'll hike rates when and if they become more confident:
- BOJ may not be as dovish as Ueda's cautious rhetoric suggests
- BOJ will hike rates if it has more confidence in forecasts, says deputy governor Himino
- BOK kicks off series of anticipated rate cuts:
- S&P, Dow, Nasdaq fluctuate as CPI warms, jobless claims come in hotter than expected
- Friday, 11 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions expected to deliver two quarter point rate cuts in months ahead:
- S&P, Dow close at record highs as market enters year two of bull run; Nasdaq rises
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's upcoming 7 November 2024 meeting. Afterward, the FedWatch tool anticipates that the Fed will continue a series of quarter point rate cuts at six-to-twelve-week intervals well into 2025.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 increased to +3.3% from the previous week's forecast of +2.5% growth.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull standing on a small peak looking out at an even higher peak in the distance"