It was a big week for Wall Street's bulls.
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) achieved a new high to close out the third week of October. By the time the market closed on Friday, 18 October 2024, the index sat at a level of 5,864.67, nearly a full two percent higher than it closed the previous week, which was also a record high close for the S&P 500.
Most of that gain came on Monday, 14 October 2024 while the bond market was closed for the Columbus Day holiday. After retreating a bit during the week, stock prices rose again on Friday, 18 October 2024 to achieve the index' new record high close.
That was enough for the S&P 500's trajectory to keep tracking along in the upper portion of the redzone forecast range. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the index continues to largely behave as expected.
The market moving news of the week that was mainly revolved around two topics: central bank rate cuts and China's as yet insufficient effort to stimulate its economy.
- Monday, 14 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions keep pushing expectation for smaller rate cuts ahead:
- Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari sees further 'modest' rate cuts as appropriate
- Fed's Waller calls for 'more caution' on rate cuts
- Bigger trouble developing as stimulus falls short in China:
- China flags more fiscal stimulus for economy, leaves out key details on size
- China's stimulus message leaves investors wanting
- "The Policy Sounds Quite Weak": China's MOF Stimulus Announcement Disappoints
- China's stimulus promises bring property sector hope, rather than confidence
- China copper, iron ore stay stimulus believers, but others sceptical
- China's deflationary pressures build in Sept, consumer inflation cools
- China's exports miss forecasts as lone bright spot fades
- S&P 500 ends at fresh record high, as Dow scales 43k for first time
- Tuesday, 15 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US consumers see higher long-run inflation, rising delinquency risk
- Oil plunges 4% as Iran supply disruption concerns ease, demand outlook weakens
- Fed minions keep saying they'll continue cutting U.S. interest rates:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's economy set to grow 4.8% in 2024, missing target: Reuters poll
- China may raise $850 billion in new debt over three years to spur growth, says report
- World's central bankers pretty excited to buy gold, BOJ minions say they're thinking about "very moderate" rate hikes:
- Central banks remain keen buyers of gold, representatives tell bullion conference
- Bank of Japan policymaker calls for 'very moderate' pace of rate hikes
- Signs of economic growth developing in Eurozone:
- Nasdaq slips 1%, S&P halts two-day win streak as ASML, Nvidia weigh on chip stocks
- Wednesday, 16 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions signal they're still wanting to keep cutting U.S. short term interest rates, worry about rising rents:
- Fed's Bostic says his 'dot' was for 25 bp more in cuts in 2024
- Cleveland Fed warns sticky rent gains may pressure overall inflation
- Most world central banks getting excited to cut their interest rates:
- BOJ minions can count on JapanGov minions to spend, borrow more:
- ECB minions blamed for being to slow to address Eurozone inflation after pandemic:
- ECB could have curbed inflation with earlier rate hikes, DIW says
- ECB set for second straight rate cut as euro zone economy ails
- Dow notches record close, S&P rises as small-cap rally, rotation helps Wall Street rebound
- Thursday, 17 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions signal they're going to keep shrinking their balance sheet:
- Bigger stimulus, trouble developing in China:
- China cenbank chief flags more interest rate cuts
- China's new home prices fall at fastest pace since 2015
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan points to bigger troubles in China, U.S.:
- ECB minions cut rates with bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- Dow notches 39th record close of 2024, while Nasdaq ekes out gains; S&P slips marginally
- Friday, 18 October 2024
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices fall, weekly 7% drop on China demand woes, mixed Mideast outlook
- US single-family homebuilding hits five-month high, but trend remains soft
- Fed minions say they're not rushing to deliver more rate cuts:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's Q3 GDP hits weakest pace since early 2023, backs calls for more stimulus
- China urges swift implementation of expansive financial policies
- China rolls out $112 bln funding schemes to bolster stock market
- BOJ minions see lots of trouble ahead:
- Bank of Japan chief warns of unstable markets, global uncertainties
- Japan's Inflation Slows for First Time Since Aprill Ahead of BOJ
- ECB minions being given message to pick up pace of Eurozone interest rate cuts:
- S&P, Dow both notch new record closes as Wall Street posts six-week win streak
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool anticipates a 0.25% rate cut on 7 November 2024 with additional 0.25% cuts at 6-to-12-week intervals through 17 September 2025. The CME FedWatch tool sees the Federal Funds Rate bottoming at a target range of 3.25-3.50% at that time.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 ticked up to +3.4% from the previous week's forecast of +3.3% growth.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull on the trading floor of the New York stock exchange celebrating a record high for the S&P 500".