As expected, October 2024's rebound in mortgage rates helped take steam out of the U.S. new home market.
The 30-year conventional fixed rate mortgage rose from 6.08% at the end of September 2024 to 6.72% at the end of October. The sales of new homes plummeted to a two-year low, which was further aggravated by the disruption of hurricanes in the southern U.S.
At the same time, new home prices "surged to new record-high average and median prices".
The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was at a new record high of $437,300, up from $426,800 in September. Additionally, average sales prices rose to a new record high of $545,800 from $509,900.
The overall effect of reduced sales beat out higher sale prices in driving October 2024's market cap for new homes. Our initial estimate of the time-shifted trailing twelve month average of the total value of new homes sold during the month is $29.27 billion, which falls below September 2024's revised market cap estimate of $29.85 billion. Downward revisions in previous months confirm the U.S. new home market cap remains below its December 2020 peak.
The three following charts present the trends for the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through October 2024.
New home sales stalls:
Prices remain elevated, not falling:
Mortgage rates have remained above the level they reached at the end of October 2024, so the headwinds for the U.S. new home market will likely continue. The absence of additional disruption from hurricanes however should contribute to more positive months ahead.
References
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 27 November 2024.
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 27 November 2024.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A new home in a wind storm".