The U.S. stock market's upward momentum continued in the trading week ending 25 July 2025.
The biggest market-moving headlines of the week that was came on Wednesday, 23 July 2025 as the U.S. announced it had reached tariff deals with both Japan and Indonesia. The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rose nearly 0.8% from the previous day's close, as the trade deal with Japan was lauded as a potential model for U.S. trade negotiations with the European Union.
The S&P 500 would go on to rise 1.5% on the week, clocking new highs along the way before closing at 6,388.64 on Friday, 25 July 2025. The latest update of the alternative futures chart indicates investors are currently focusing on 2026-Q1 as they set current day stock prices.
While the big trade deals gave the market its biggest upward push, the week's other market moving headlines, particularly related to China, cast shadows on the market's overall outlook. China's economy has been struggling with deflationary forces for some time, which have intensified in 2025. The past week's headlines indicate the measures so far taken by China's government to address them are not having the desired impact, prompting more top-down actions to combat the structural weakness within that nation's economy.
That affects the U.S. stock market because that weakness combined with the Chinese government's actions contribute to reduced demand for U.S. goods and services. That in turn puts limits on the growth prospects for U.S. companies and, by extension, their stock prices.
Here are the week's market-moving headlines, which capture several aspects of these dynamics.
- Monday, 21 July 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil slips as little impact seen from EU sanctions on Russia
- US not rushing trade deals ahead of August deadline, will talk with China, Bessent says
- Fed minions hear they need to have their operations examined:
- Not-so-big stimulus developing in China as trade with U.S. picks up:
- China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged, as expected
- China's exports of rare earth magnets to the US surge in June
- Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
- Europe's chemical industry seeks a lifeboat to stay in business
- EU to ramp up retaliation plans as US tariff deal prospects dim
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record high closes, lifted by Alphabet
- Tuesday, 22 July 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices fall as tariff deadline looms
- US considering removing tax on capital gains on home sales, Trump says
- Fed minions being primed to get new leadership, thinking about changing financial regulations:
- US Treasury chief: No need for Fed's Powell to step down right now
- Bessent Calls For 'Fundamental Reset' Of Financial Regulations
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ minions not sure on next step after political shakeup in Japan:
- S&P 500 ekes out another record close Tuesday as traders react to latest earnings
- Wednesday, 23 July 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Trump strikes tariff deal with Japan, auto stocks surge
- US-Japan trade deal averts worst for global economy
- US, EU trade talks bolstered by Trump's agreement with Japan
- US existing home sales fall more than expected in June
- Oil prices edge lower with trade talks in focus
- Fed minions thinking about who will lead Fed next as pressure for rate cut builds, also thinking about rewriting bank regulations:
- Trump again calls for Fed board to act, says Powell 'doesn't get it'
- Fed officials, banking experts discuss regulatory rewrite effort at conference
- BOJ minions see positives in US-Japan trade deal:
- Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
- Chinese automakers gain ground in contracting European market, data shows
- EU to advance retaliation on US goods as tariff hike looms
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally to record highs on optimism about trade deals
- Thursday, 24 July 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US new home sales below expectations in June; housing supply rises
- Oil prices gain on US trade optimism, drop in crude inventories
- Chief Fed minion gives tour of Fed's $2.5 billion taxpayer-funded remodeling project to U.S. President:
- Actions to combat deflation developing in China:
- BOJ minions get reason to avoid hiking Japan's interest rates, for now:
- ECB minions pauses changes in Eurozone interest rates after year of cuts:
- ECB keeps rates steady as it awaits clarity over trade
- ECB rate decision as it happened: Rates helds at 2% amid trade uncertainty
- VIEW ECB leaves rates steady after a year of easing
- Euro zone business activity growth hits 11-month high in July, PMI shows
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record closes, lifted by Alphabet
- Friday, 25 July 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil steady as investors weigh trade optimism against potential Venezuelan supply increase
- Trump says US may not have a negotiated trade deal with Canada
- Trump says there is a 50-50 chance of trade deal with EU
- Chief Fed minion weighing next career step:
- Investors weigh market impact of possible early Powell exit
- Trump suggests Fed Chair may cut interest rates
- Bigger trouble developing as root causes of deflationary pressures outweigh efforts to regulate them in China:
- China’s Instant Retail Price War Intensifies Despite Regulatory Pressure
- Reform, not relief: China has more to worry about than just deflation
- BOJ minions still thinking about more rate hikes:
- ECB minions working to sell pause in rate cuts, bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- Euro zone economy holds up even as ECB speakers look to temper market view of no more cuts
- Euro zone companies warn of slowing economy, China competition, ECB poll shows
- Wall Street closed the week on a high note as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set fresh records
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool forecasts the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate in its current target range of 4.25-4.50% until its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, when it is expected to cut the rate by a quarter percent. Beyond that date, the FedWatch tool anticipates additonal quarter point rate cuts at 12-week intervals on 10 December (2025-Q4), 18 March (2026-Q1), and 29 July (2026-Q3).
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q3 held steady at +2.4% this week.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is excited by trade deals with Japan and Indonesia". Normally, when we prompt for a Wall Street bull, the AI will draw the bull wearing a suit. We can only imagine that it must be pretty hot in New York City while the bull is celebrating the S&P 500's new record highs!