The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) saw very little change week over week. The index closed the trading week ending on 14 November 2025 at 6,734.11, up less than 0.1% from its previous week's close.
There was more action than that during the week. The index rose early in the week by 1.75% as AI-related firms jumped only to give nearly all of its gain back by the end of the week. The main culprits behind that disappointing development were a number of Federal Reserve officials who signaled on Thursday, 13 November 2025 they are unlikely to cut the Federal Funds Rate again next month. That impacted the direction of stock prices because it prompted investors to revisit their expectations for the mega-caps funding their AI-technology infrastructure plans using debt, several of which represent some of the biggest firms within the S&P 500.
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool absorbed that new information and changed to indicate just a 44% probability of one more quarter point cut to the Federal Funds Rate in 2025. In 2026, the FedWatch tool anticipates better than 50% probabilities for quarter point rate cuts on 28 January (2026-Q1), 17 June (2026-Q1), and 16 September (2026-Q3). The potential timing of all these projected rate cuts remains very fluid with substantial changes in expectations from week to week.
Meanwhile, the latest update of the alternative futures chart shows investors focused most their forward-looking attention on the current quarter of 2025-Q4 in the latter part of the week, which is consistent with the now open question of whether or not the Fed will cut rates in December 2025.
Here are the week's market-moving headlines:
- Monday, 10 November 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- At China's largest import expo, US exhibitors hopeful worst of trade war is over
- US container imports fall in October amid tariff driven caution
- China suspends port fees on US-linked ships for a year
- US Senate advances bill to end federal shutdown
- Democrats Concede Shutdown Fight Without Health Care Win in Hand
- US fourth-quarter GDP could be negative if shutdown drags on, White House economic adviser says
- US surpasses 10,000 flight delays Sunday in worst day of shutdown
- Oil settles higher as tight fuel markets offset crude supply concerns
- Fed minions thinking about how to set US interest rates:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's car sales unexpectedly contract in October after eight-month expansion
- China's internet firms cautiously revive lending as Beijing pushes consumer loans
- Bigger stimulus developing in Japan as BOJ minions told by top politicians to hold off December rate hike, even though BOJ minions really want one:
- Japan's stimulus plan to urge BOJ focus on boosting growth, draft outline shows
- BOJ should avoid December rate hike, says Takaichi's economic adviser
- BOJ saw growing case for near-term rate hike, October meeting summary shows
- ECB minions say Eurozone interest rates are right where they want them, Eurozone banks subsidizing "greener" companies with lower interest rates:
- ECB's rates at right level barring deviations, ECB VP says
- Euro zone banks tilting loan pricing towards greener firms, ECB blog says
- Wall Street rallies as investors await the end of the U.S. government shutdown
- Tuesday, 11 November 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- SoftBank unloads entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8B
- Trump calls 50-year mortgages no 'big deal' as right-wing conservatives balk
- US Senate passes bill to end government shutdown, sends to House
- Oil up as investors balance sanctions risks, oversupply worries
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- Chinese goods dumping started before tariffs, ECB study finds
- China to provide new investment opportunities to US companies
- China's central bank to maintain accommodative policy as challenges persist
- Japan's new boss wants "wage-driven" inflation:
- Wall Street closed mixed as the government shutdown resolution appears close
- Wednesday, 12 November 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US lost jobs through late October, new private-sector data shows
- China's soybean glut could defeat US export hopes after trade thaw
- Oil prices fall, markets look to US government reopening
- After the bell....
- Fed minions say they're reluctant to cut rates as they're expected to in December 2025, taking actions to fend off liquidity problems:
- Fed's Bostic favors no change in rates while inflation remains greater risk
- Atlanta Fed’s Bostic: ‘I see little to suggest that price pressures will dissipate before mid- to late 2026’
- Bostic announces retirement amid Trump push for more influence over Fed
- US Supreme Court to hear Trump's bid to fire Fed's Lisa Cook on January 21
- Fed split deepens as Collins says she would hesitate to support another cut
- Fed to cut rates again in December on weakening job market, say most economists
- Fed may soon start buying bonds to manage market liquidity, Williams says
- Bigger trouble developing in China:
- China's Singles' Day shopping festival winds down with 'muted' sentiment
- US House report accuses China of minerals market interference
- Bigger stimulus developing in Japan:
- ECB minions thinking Eurozone inflation risk is low:
- Dow finishes at all-time high as government shutdown end nears; Nasdaq lags amid struggling tech trade
- Thursday, 13 November 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices steady after steep losses in previous session
- US corporate bankruptcies set to hit 15-year high amid credit jitters, S&P data shows
- Fed's December rate cut looks increasingly like a toss-up
- Bigger trouble developing in China:
- China's October new home prices fall at fastest pace in a year
- https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-october-new-bank-loans-fall-sharply-missing-forecast-2025-11-13/
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan with prices, BOJ minions want wage inflation:
- Japan's wholesale prices rise more than expected on sticky food inflation
- Bank of Japan aims for wage-driven inflation, aligns with government view
- U.S. stocks sink as post-shutdown optimism fades, rate cut odds fall
- Friday, 14 November 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack
- Trump cuts tariffs on beef, coffee and other foods as inflation concerns mount
- More Fed minions signal reluctance to cut rates in December, another minion revealed to have ethics problem that led to their unexpected exit:
- As Fed hawks press their case, traders bet against December cut
- Former Fed Governor Kugler's exit came amid forbidden trading activity
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's economy jolted by weakest factory output, retail sales growth in over a year
- China vows to boost consumption, better balance demand and supply
- Wall Street ends mixed, Nasdaq survives from selloff amid valuation worries
The end of the federal government shutdown had very little impact on stock prices. That's an expected outcome because most political events that don't involve changes in tax rates tend to contribute little more than noise to markets. That doesn't mean it won't have an economic impact, because of its length and because it began to disrupt air transportation with air traffic controllers not showing up for work at major airports after a month of going unpaid.
We don't know yet how big that impact might be. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 was unchanged at +4.0%, as many economic data reports remain on hold with the government slowly resuming operations after the Senate Democrats' failed shutdown. The BEA's official estimates of GDP in 2025-Q3 remain on hold as well. And for that matter, 2025-Q4, which is when any actual economic contraction related to the shutdown occurred.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon showing Federal Reserve officials in suits carrying football goalposts labeled 'RATE CUT' away from a Wall Street bull wearing a football uniform and preparing to kick a field goal, who looks frustrated as the goalposts are being moved further away"