After closing out the preceding week at a record high, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) clocked a new record high close of 6,977.27 on Monday, 12 January 2026 before retreating a half percent to end the week at 6,940.01, about 0.4% below its previous week's close.
There really wasn't any single catalyst to prompt the retreat. Instead, the general flow of news during the week was mildly negative for the outlook of large publicly traded firms, with the result being that stock prices ended the week marginally lower.
For example, inflation news during the week that was did little to influence expectations for how U.S. interest rates will change during 2026. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2), when it anticipates a quarter point rate cut. The tool forecasts another quarter point reduction on 28 October (2026-Q4), six weeks later than it forecast a week earlier.
Perhaps the biggest surprise during the week was President Trump putting potential new tariffs on the table on Friday, 16 January 2026 for European nations opposing U.S. negotiations to acquire the territory of Greenland from Denmark. Which considering how President Trump has transformed tariffs into a tool for the U.S.' international diplomacy over the last year isn't a terribly surprising development and did little to affect stock prices.
All in the all, we find the trajectory of the S&P 500 is right about in the middle of the redzone forecast range shown on the latest update of the alternative futures chart for 2026-Q1.
Here are the market moving headlines, such as they were, for the trading week ending on Friday, 16 January 2026.
- Monday, 12 January 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Trump calls for one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%
- Oil dips as investors assess Iran supply, Venezuelan export resumption
- US to push for quicker action in reducing reliance on China for rare earths
- Chief Fed minion claims to be subject of DOJ investigation:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's 2025 record export surge expected to slow in December
- Xi stresses the need to win the fight against corruption in China
- JapanGov minions looking to break reliance on rare earth materials from China:
- S&P 500, Dow hit closing record highs; Walmart, tech climb
- Tuesday, 13 January 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Core CPI inflation comes in slightly cooler than expected in December
- US new home sales fall marginally in October
- Oil prices surge on possible Iranian supply disruption
- Current and former Fed minions back chief minion facing legal trouble, what chief Fed minion didn't say about his legal trouble:
- Musalem says Powell video was "very clear and very direct" - MNI Webcast
- Three peculiarities about Jerome Powell’s statement
- Fed minions say their monetary policy is 'well-positioned', not sure what to make of rising productivity in U.S.:
- Fed's Williams says monetary policy well positioned amid a favorable outlook
- Fed officials cautious about rising productivity's contribution to inflation fight
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- Wall Street ends in the red as retail inflation comes in slightly cooler, earnings fail to lift sentiment
- Wednesday, 14 January 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US producer prices increase moderately in November
- US banking giants reap bigger profits as borrowers seek more loans
- US existing home sales accelerate in December
- Oil climbs on concerns over potential Iranian supply disruption
- Trump imposes 25% tariff on imports of some advanced computing chips
- Fed minions debate when and how much to cut rates next:
- Fed's Miran says Trump's deregulation will help lower inflation, justifying rate cuts
- Fed's Barkin calls December inflation data encouraging
- Fed's Kashkari tells NYT it is 'way too soon' to cut rates
- Fed's Paulson reiterates more rate cuts could follow moderating in inflation
- Trump imposes 25% tariff on imports of some advanced computing chips
- Bigger trouble in the form of new U.S. tariffs developing in China:
- China's trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite tariff jolt
- China's vehicle sales, exports set to cool in 2026
- BOJ minions won't fight for Powell, have bigger problems to deal with:
- Wall Street ends lower, led by drop in Nasdaq, with tech, banks falling
- Thursday, 15 January 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil settles down 4% as Trump comments ease Iranian supply concerns
- US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage drops to near 3-1/2-year low of 6.06%
- US reaches trade deal with Taiwan that could boost US chipmakers
- Trump says no critical minerals tariffs for now, will seek overseas supplies
- US farm economy shows widening cracks as costs rise, jobs vanish
- Fed minions say they are fighting inflation pretty darn well:
- Goolsbee tells CNBC lowering inflation is Fed's main job
- Fed's Daly: policy in good place, calibration should be deliberate
- Fed's Schmid: Cutting rates could make inflation worse
- BOJ minions game-planning next rate hikes, on guard against collapse in Japan's currency:
- BOJ to raise rates again to 1% or higher by end-September, possibly by July
- Fears of BoJ intervention keeps dollar/yen below 160
- ECB minions cooperating with Fed minions, say their banking rules are right but need to be balanced, while Germany's economy may have hit bottom in the Eurozone:
- ECB's de Guindos: Fed cooperation is 'business as usual'
- ECB's de Guindos says bank valuations show supervisory approach is right
- German economy breaks 2-year slide with modest 2025 growth
- Wall Street ended higher as chip stocks climbed and Trump paused critical mineral tariffs
- Friday, 16 January 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices settle up as US begins holiday weekend
- "Emergency Intervention": Trump To Cap Residential Electric Bills By Forcing Tech Giants To Pay For Soaring Power Costs
- Trump Says Wants To Keep "Hassett Where He Is" Sending Warsh Fed Chair Odds Soaring; Gold Slides
- Fed minions keep claiming they've achieved the perfect monetary policy for 2026's economy, some worry rate cuts will be needed to boost jobs:
- Fed's Jefferson says current policy stance 'well positioned'
- Fed should be ready to cut rates again amid job market risks, Bowman says
- Bigger carbon dioxide emissions developing in China:
- BOJ minions thinking about surprising markets by hiking Japan's interest rates sooner:
- U.S. stocks post marginal losses, notch weekly decline
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow toolestimates real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 ticked up to +5.3% from the +5.1% growth it was anticipating on 9 January 2026.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear watching the news and worrying over it".