S&P 500 (Index: SPX) investors enjoyed a relatively quiet, nearly news free two weeks to end 2025. The index set a new record high of 6,932.05 just before the Christmas Day holiday, before retreating 1.2% in the next week on little-to-no significant market-moving news to close out 2025 at 6,845.50. On 2026's first day of trading, the index rose to 6,858.47, just 1.1% below its 24 December 2025 record high close, as investors started the year with little-to-no market moving news that could meaningfully alter their outlooks for the year-to-come.
And, we might add, no indication of any impending geopolitical event with the potential to reshape expectations for a global industry.
Which is to say it is quite possible we'll be starting the first full trading week of 2026 with a bang. Since that will be a story we cover in the next edition of the S&P 500 chaos series, let's close out 2025 properly with the final update to the alternative futures chart for 2025-Q4.
Through Friday, 2 January 2026, we find the S&P 500's is tracking along in the middle of the new redzone forecast range we added to the chart a week earlier, which assumes investors are focusing their forward-looking attention on the current quarter of 2026-Q1.
The thing to pay attention to in the week ahead is how the expectations for oil prices change as a consequence to the weekend's geopolitical event. To help set that stage, here are the market-moving headlines that were setting investor expectations during the past two holiday-shortened trading weeks.
- Monday, 22 December 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil settles higher on risk of disruptions to Venezuela, Russia supply
- Oil price gains after US interception of oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela over weekend
- Fed minion sees continuing their policy targeting 3% inflation as reason to hold rates steady, another minion talks about sticking around after term ends until replaced:
- Fed’s Hammack sees inflation near 3% as case for holding rates, WSJ reports
- Fed's Miran says he will likely stay after term ends until his seat is filled
- Bigger stimulus not developing in China:
- BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
- Germany's automotive exports plunged in 2025:
- German auto exports hit hard by Trump tariffs, study shows
- German exports in machinery and autos/parts to China have declined strongly
- Wall Street finished higher to kick off the holiday shortened trading week
- Tuesday, 23 December 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Q3 U.S. GDP climbs 4.3%, past consensus, in BEA's delayed initial estimate
- US economic growth accelerates in third quarter
- Robust consumer spending, rising exports fuel US economic growth in third quarter
- Q3 GDP Unexpectedly Surges To 2 Year High On Soaring Health Insurance Spending
- Oil steadies as market weighs geopolitical risks against bearish fundamentals
- Copper price hits record high on concerns over tariffs and shortages
- Fed minions may ditch 2% inflation goal they haven't met in years:
- Bigger AI developing in China:
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan, BOJ thinking about hiking rates sooner than expected:
- Japan's fiscal woes may cause more yen falls, yield rises, says ex-BOJ policymaker
- BOJ's hawkish wink suggests next hike may be sooner than markets think
- S&P 500 notched a record close as Wall Street ended higher after GDP data
- Wednesday, 24 December 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's farmers are up to their ears in milk
- Chinese capital Beijing further eases home buying curbs
- China widens foreign investment incentive list to stem falling inflows
- BOJ minions maybe not so sure about rate hike plans:
- Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs on Christmas Eve
- Friday, 26 December 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil falls 2% on looming supply glut, hopes of Ukraine peace deal
- Copper Hits Record in China, Jumps in New York on Supply Concern
- BOJ's chief minion wants higher interest rates, bigger troubles with fiscal policy developing in Japan:
- BOJ chief sees progress in hitting price goal, signals further hikes
- Japan proposes record budget spending while curbing fresh debt
- Wall Street halts five-day advance as precious metals grab the spotlight
- Monday, 29 December 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US pending home sales surge to highest in nearly 3 years in November, NAR says
- US economy to ride tax cut tailwind but faces risks
- Oil settles up over 2% on dented peace hopes in Ukraine, tensions in Yemen
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's industrial profits tumble at fastest pace in over a year
- China's finance ministry says fiscal policies will be more 'proactive' in 2026
- BOJ minions watching yen, markets watching BOJ minions:
- U.S. stocks end lower to start the New Year's shortened week
- Tuesday, 30 December 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions thinking more rate cuts, QE-like policies ahead:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- Wall Street stretches tech-led sell-off into the last days of the year
- Wednesday, 31 December 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- China's Xi promises more proactive macro policies in 2026
- China approves major projects and investment plans for 2026 totalling $42 billion
- China allocates initial $8.9 billion for consumer goods trade-in scheme in 2026
- China's factory activity edges back to growth in December, private PMI shows
- China imposes curbs on beef imports to protect domestic industry
- BOJ minions look back at their success in hiking Japan's interest rates:
- S&P 500 finishes with 16% gain in 2025
- Friday, 2 January 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices settle lower after biggest annual loss since 2020
- US draws bulk of state-owned investment in 2025 as assets hit record $60 trillion
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- Nasdaq falls flat, U.S. stocks battle to recover from tech sell-off to kick off 2026
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to anticipate additional quarter point rate cuts on 18 March (2026-Q1) and 29 July (2026-Q3), with no other rate cuts projected in 2026.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's first estimate of real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 is +3.0%. Meanwhile, the BEA's first official estimate of GDP in the preceding quarter of 2025-Q3 came in at 4.3%, much higher than the GDPNow tool's final projection of +3.5% growth for that long since ended quarter.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear watching the New Year's Eve ball drop to start 2026 and screaming with fear".