The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) continued its bullish run in the trading week ending on Friday, 17 April 2026. The index closed out the week at 7,126.06, a new record high following 13 consecutive days of higher closes.
To put that unlikely event into perspective, since 3 January 1950, the S&P 500 has only seen one winning streak that has exceeded 12 consecutive days. That streak started on 26 March 1971 and ended on 15 April 1971. The index rose from 99.61 at the close of trading on 25 March 1971 to reach 103.52 after 14 trading days, a gain of 3.9%.
The current winning streak, which is still running going into the new trading week, has seen the S&P 500 rise 12.3% after the index bottomed at 6,343.72 on 30 March 2026. The gains have largely come as the U.S. has largely achieved its aims in the Iran war, including an announcement from Iran's government that shipping traffic would resume transiting the Hormuz Strait without harassment on Friday, 17 April 2026.
Investors responded positively, bidding oil prices substantially lower which, in turn, boosted stock prices. The latest update of the alternative futures chart finds the index' trajectory has risen to fall within the redzone forecast range we added several weeks ago before the geopolitical conflict, where it is now just 2.6% below the central trend line of the forecast range.
The positive development also improved the outlook for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, which is a big change after the last few weeks had all but taken that chance off the table. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects a rising chance of a single quarter point rate cut in 2026, most likely to be announced after the Fed's Open Market Committee meets on 9 December (2026-Q4).
Of course, whether that happens depends on the course of geopolitical events in the Iran war, which the flow of new information in recent weeks has demonstrated to be subject to change with little notice. To get a sense of what we mean, here are the market moving headlines from just the past week:
- Monday, 13 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Vance: 'No agreement reached' in US and Iran peace talks
- Oil prices jump 4% on US blockade of Iran after peace talks collapse
- US existing home sales drop to nine-month low in March amid tight supply
- Mixed growth signs, bigger trouble developing in China:
- China poised for Q1 GDP growth rebound but Iran war dims 2026 outlook: Reuters poll
- China's exports set to lose momentum as Iran war undercuts AI-driven boom: Reuters poll
- China March new loans jumps less than expected, no sign of fresh policy easing
- China court orders bankruptcy liquidation for Zhongzhi Group and 316 affiliates
- BOJ minions starting to think that boosting value of Japan's currency might keep inflation at bay:
- BOJ policy to boost yen could be an option to curb inflation, Japanese minister says
- BOJ highlights market volatility, economic hit from Middle East conflict
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- ECB minions say Eurozone energy prices are right where they planned, not as sure about whether they'll hike interest rates as the market:
- ECB's Vujcic says energy prices are still closest to ECB basic scenario
- ECB rate rise will depend on effects of oil price surge, De Guindos says
- Wall Street rallied and closed higher despite failed U.S.-Iran talks
- Tuesday, 14 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US producer inflation rises below expectations in March, but war fires up energy prices
- Crude oil plunges on potential for renewed U.S.-Iran talks, pressure from naval blockade
- Fed minions continue pushing back on possibility of rate cuts before 2027:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's export engine stutters as Iran war chills global demand
- Exclusive: China finance ministry to meet underwriters on special treasury bond issuance plan
- China's March crude oil imports unscathed by Iran war, gas imports hit a multi-year low
- ECB minions dithering as bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- ECB has not made its mind up on rates, Lagarde says
- Euro zone faces big growth hit even if Iran war quickly resolved, IMF says
- Wall Street rallies on renewed hopes for US-Iran talks, earnings boost
- Wednesday, 15 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices fall as hopes for US-Iran deal outweigh supply disruption concerns
- Economic growth will be slower this quarter amid war, US Treasury chief says
- US import prices increase below expectations; sharp rise anticipated due to Iran war
- Former Fed minion tries to put 2026 rate cut back on table, current Fed minions say inflation likely to stay near the Fed's real target and interest rates likely to stay where they're at as chief minion pressured to resign:
- Former US Treasury Secretary Yellen says one Fed rate cut possible this year
- Exclusive: Fed's Musalem says oil shock likely to keep core inflation near 3%, rates on hold for some time
- Fed's Hammack: Rates likely on hold 'for a good while' - CNBC
- Trump threatens to fire Powell if he doesn't quit Fed board; ongoing probe clouds Warsh confirmation
- BOJ minions face a growing lack of support for their rate hike plans:
- ECB minions say they're doing great with Eurozone monetary policies:
- ECB in 'relatively favorable' policy position, Schnabel says
- ECB policymakers see little evidence for now for April hike, sources say
- S&P 500 closes at fresh record, recovering all losses since start of US-Iran war
- Thursday, 16 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices rise on doubts US-Iran peace talks will ease Hormuz disruption
- Iran war brings US close to net crude exporter for first time since World War Two
- Fed minions say less likely to cut rates in months ahead:
- Fed's Miran may scale back rate-cut outlook again due to 'less favorable' inflation developments
- Fed's Williams says war is already driving up inflation pressures
- Growth signs, continuing trouble developing in China:
- China's Q1 GDP grows 5.0% y/y, tops market forecast
- China's new home prices extend decline despite improvement in major cities
- BOJ minions expected to hike Japan's interest rates before summer:
- ECB minions say they're calm for now, not excited enough to hike Eurozone interest rates:
- Calm judgment will prevail over haste at ECB, Rehn says
- ECB policymakers play down April rate hike chances
- Wall Street enjoys second day of fresh highs as Trump announces Middle East peace advancements
- Friday, 17 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Iran agrees to suspend nuclear program, Trump says - report
- US buyers redirect imported fertilizer overseas as Iran war drives up global prices
- Fed minions thinking rate cuts in 2026 might not yet be dead:
- Fed's Waller says swift war end could keep rate cut hopes alive
- Fed chair nominee Warsh will have ideas, economy may deliver surprises, Daly says
- No stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan's interest rates again, but maybe not in April 2026:
- BOJ's hawkish hints keep rate hike on the cards
- BOJ chief avoids hints of April rate hike, shattering hawkish market bets
- Chief ECB minion starting to think Iran war might somehow affect Eurozone economy:
- S&P 500 hits record high after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open
We normally cut off our coverage of a trading week's news events with the close of trading each week. Since that's the case, be aware that events that come up afterward can have a material effect on how stock futures trade in the interim between the previous week's market close and the upcoming week's market open.
In other news, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in 2026-Q1 was unchanged at +1.3%, the same as at the end of the preceding week.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a suit-wearing Wall Street bull and bear celebrating falling oil prices because the Hormuz Strait is open. The bull holds a newspaper with the headline 'HORMUZ STRAIT OPEN! OIL PRICES PLUNGE!' and a champagne glass, while the bear laughs holding dollar bills. A toppled oil barrel and a downward oil price chart sit on the table."