The second-longest ever winning streak for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) was broken on Monday, 20 April 2026. The streak had endured for 13 days, one short of the all time record.
While the streak was broken, all was not bad for Wall Street bulls, who could celebrate the index hitting a new all-time record high closing value of 7,165.08 on Friday, 24 April 2026.
The streak largely came about as a result of the cease fire in the Iran War, which was at risk of ending before President Trump announced an extension during the past week. The markets new highs came in response to that event, the prospect of diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran soon resuming, and the strength of earnings out of the market's technology sector.
All these things kept the trajectory of the S&P 500 running along the bottom end of the redzone forecast range we added to the alternative futures chart back in February, as shown in its latest update. That range assumes investors would be focused on the current quarter of 2026-Q2, which they certainly have been, even with the disruption of the Iran war geopolitical event.
The centerline of the redzone forecast range provides a reasonable estimate of where the S&P 500 would have gone in the absence of the Iran war. From Friday, 17 April 2026 through Friday, 24 April 2026, the index has ranged between 2.5 and 3.0% below that trajectory, which is to say the geopolitical event is keeping the S&P 500 from rising even higher.
What happens next for the S&P 500 will be determined by investor reactions to the random onset of new information. Here are the market-moving headlines that affected the trajectory of the index during the week that was.
- Monday, 20 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Future chief Fed minions goes up for Senate interview:
- Bigger trouble developing in China:
- BOJ minions expected to pass on hiking rates in April, but look forward to June 2026:
- Exclusive: BOJ is likely to hold off raising rates in April, sources say
- BOJ's hawkish hints keep rate hike on the cards
- ECB minions thinking about getting more data before ditching their perfect monetary policy:
- Wall Street closes slightly down on renewed tensions between US, Iran
- Tuesday, 21 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices climb 5% after Trump says he does not want to extend Iran ceasefire
- US crude and fuel exports surge to record highs, but it's not enough
- Record surge in gasoline receipts boosts US retail sales, but weakness is looming
- Price hikes, outlook cuts - What airlines are doing as fuel costs surge
- US pending home sales beat expectations in March
- Prospective new chief minion calls for 'regime change' at Fed, current Fed minions weigh in with suggestions:
- Warsh calls for 'regime change' at Fed, new inflation approach
- As Warsh faces hearing, a framework for smaller Fed balance sheet emerges
- Five things we learned at Fed nominee Warsh's Senate hearing
- Fed's Waller calls for overhaul of regional Fed bank operations
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's youth jobless rate rises to 16.9% in March
- China targets 100 trillion yuan services sector by 2030 in upgrade push
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- ECB minions priming to leave Eurozone interest rates unchanged, think private credit is a threat:
- ECB must keep cool head on rates amid Iran war, de Guindos says
- ECB sees private credit as risk to financial stability, de Guindos says
- Wall Street extends losses as a U.S.-Iran resolution remains uncertain
- Wednesday, 22 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions expected to cut U.S. interest rates before end of 2026:
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ minions worried about Iran war dragging out:
- S&P 500, Nasdaq end at record as Trump extends ceasefire deadline with Iran
- Thursday, 23 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Brent crude futures jump on Trump's threats over Strait of Hormuz
- Trump on gas prices: Americans should expect to pay more 'for a little while'
- Record demand can't save US airlines from Iran war fuel shock
- US fixed 30-year mortgage rate drops to 6.23%
- New grads are finding jobs faster despite a competitive job market, says report
- Fed minions thinking about what they mean when they say they have a 2% inflation target, maybe cutting rates in late 2026:
- A Warsh-led Fed's 2% inflation goal might be a different 2%
- Fed rate cut pushed back to late 2026 on war-related inflation risks: Reuters poll
- ECB minions expected to ditch their perfect monetary policy with rate hikes in June 2026:
- Meanwhile, bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
- U.S. stocks end lower as conflict in the Strait of Hormuz intensifies
- Friday, 24 April 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices fall on report Iran foreign minister to arrive in Pakistan for peace talks
- 20,000 job cuts at Meta, Microsoft raise concern that AI-driven labor crisis is here
- Incoming chief Fed minion wants better inflation data, has path to secure Senate confirmation cleared as DOJ bends to Senator Tillis' demand to end criminal probe of Fed:
- Warsh's quest for better inflation data is a well-worn, difficult pursuit for Fed
- DOJ drops criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, removes hurdle for Warsh confirmation
- Pervasive AI technologies and bigger stimulus developing in China:
- DeepSeek previews new AI model adapted to run on Huawei chips
- After call from Beijing, China's auto industry races to embed AI in just about everything
- China to curb US investment in tech companies, Bloomberg News reports
- White House accuses China of industrial-scale theft of AI technology
- China first-quarter fiscal spending quickens as Beijing seeks to spur growth
- BOJ minions get reason to not hike rate this month:
- S&P 500, Nasdaq snatch another record as U.S. continues ceasefire negotiations with Iran
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued to anticipate no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, though with a growing bias toward a quarter point rate cut over time.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in 2026-Q1 ticked down to +1.2%, dipping from its projection of +1.3% growth a week earlier.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is excited the S&P 500 closed at a new record high of 7,165.08 on Friday, 24 April 2026".