Investor Focus Shifts Toward 2018-Q2 Earnings Season for S&P 500

Earnings reporting season for 2018-Q2 is now underway in the U.S. stock market. And where the S&P 500 is concerned, the arrival of earnings season appears to have coincided with a shift in how far investors are looking into to the future, with investors shifting the majority of their forward-looking attention away from the distant future quarter of 2019-Q1 back toward the current quarter of 2018-Q2.

Or at least, that's what the actual trajectory of the S&P 500 in Week 3 of April 2018 is suggesting with respect to where our dividend futures-based model would set the level of stock prices after factoring in how far ahead in time investors are looking. Overall, it appears that investors are splitting their forward-looking focus between 2018-Q2 and 2019-Q1, with 2018-Q2 being slightly favored through the end of Week 3 of April 2018.

As for the news of the week that was, there was an increase in the amount of noise being generated by the Fed's minions....

Monday, 16 April 2018

• Oil drops as Syria risk seen muted after weekend air strikes
• Dudley sees three or four Fed rate hikes in 2018: CNBC
• Fed's Kaplan says he has no problem with being 'restrictive'
• Wall Street rises, focus turns to earnings from geopolitics

Tuesday, 17 April 2018

• Oil prices rise on crude supply worry, Wall Street strength
• Fed can keep rate hikes gradual without risking inflation: Evans
• Fed's Evans says 2.25 percent inflation would not be a problem
• Fed's Williams sees U.S. inflation at or above goal for years
• Wall Street rises on earnings hopes, Netflix soars
• Netflix shares hit record as more subscribers sign up

Wednesday, 18 April 2018

• Oil breaks above $72 as supply concerns build
• Fed's Quarles says flatter yield curve doesn't point to recession
• Fed's Dudley sees 'slightly restrictive' U.S. monetary policy on horizon
• Energy, transport stocks lift Wall Street, IBM drags
• IBM first-quarter margins miss estimates, shares fall

Thursday, 19 April 2018

• Oil pulls back from gains; OPEC says glut nearly gone
• Fed's Mester wants rate hikes this year and next
• Trade Wars: What happens when a country imposes tariffs on a product that was in the process of being shipped to it?
• Exclusive: U.S. sorghum armada U-turns at sea after China tariffs
• Wall Street tumbles on tobacco and tech, commodities soften after wild ride

Friday, 20 April 2018

• Oil falls after Trump criticizes OPEC for artificially high prices
• Oil recovers after sliding on Trump tweet criticizing OPEC
• A U.S. recession ahead? Fed policymakers say not to worry
• Fed's Williams sees more rate hikes, not worried on yield curve
• Fed's Evans not that concerned about flat yield curve
• Fed's Brainard: U.S. outlook consistent with 'continued gradual' rate hikes
• Wall Street falls on investor nerves about interest rates, tech
• After the bell, major geopolitical crisis de-escalation:
• North Korea Suspends Nuclear, Long-Range Missile Tests and Plans to Close Nuclear Test Site

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz found that the number of the week's positives outweighed the negatives for the U.S. economy and markets in the third week of April 2018.