By far and away, the biggest story of the tumultuous trading week ending on Friday, 2 October 2020 was the news that President Trump had tested positive for a coronavirus infection. The news sent U.S. stock prices down on Friday by as much as 2% during the course of the day, but the market recovered somewhat to only close down by about 1%.
That rare occurrence of a non-major tax change-related political event moving stock prices however did little to change stock prices for the week. The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) ended the week about 3 points lower than the level at which it closed the previous trading week.
That change puts the level of the S&P 500 well within the redzone forecast range on our alternative futures charts, which assumes that investors are focusing on 2020-Q4 in setting current day stock prices.
We'll present an alternative futures chart projecting the dividend futures-based model;s potential trajectories of the S&P 500 for the fourth quarter of 2020 in our next edition. Meanwhile, here are the past week's market-moving headlines, where we find the Fed's minions making multiple appearances to very little apparent effect....
- Monday, 28 September 2020
- Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil up 1% on economic hope; virus fears check price gains
- U.S. income inequality narrowed slightly over last three years - Fed
- The $4 trillion U.S. government relies on individual taxpayers
- Fed minion spends time pondering Dickens, central bank failures, ending legacy of racist policies:
- Fed's Mester says economic recovery is split into 'tale of two cities'
- Fed's Mester: U.S. still far from central bank's inflation and employment goals
- Fed's Mester says inclusion important for achieving strong economy
- ECB minions attempt putting lipstick on pigs:
- Exclusive: Lagarde's peace at risk as ECB splits over virus response - sources
- ECB's Lagarde says dissent among policymakers is healthy
- ECB's Schnabel floats radical ideas for green stimulus
- Negative real yields on sovereign debt here to stay - Reuters poll
- Wall Street closes higher as energy, financials lead broad rally
- Tuesday, 29 September 2020
- Oil falls over 3% as virus cases mount and U.S. debate looms
- Bigger trouble seen in Asia, but signs of post-coronavirus rebounds:
- Pandemic to keep Asia's growth at lowest since 1967, warns World Bank
- China's factory activity accelerates at solid pace in September on boost from overseas demand
- Japan's factory output rises for third month in August
- Fed minions sees long recovery, indicates Fed's new inflation targeting policy will be made up as it goes:
- NY Fed's Williams sees about three years for full U.S. recovery
- NY Fed's Williams says flexible inflation targeting not based on a formula
- NY Fed's Williams stresses importance of financial markets resilience
- Philadelphia Fed's Harker: Recovery 'should continue' if new virus outbreaks limited
- Fed's Kaplan sees costs to pinning rates at zero
- Wall Street closes lower, ending three-day rally ahead of U.S. presidential debate
- Wednesday, 30 September 2020
- Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Brent pares losses, U.S. crude up on stimulus hopes
- Mnuchin reports movement on COVID-19 relief as House heads toward vote
- U.S. Senate aims to pass government funding bill Wednesday, avoiding shutdown
- U.S. private payrolls accelerate in September; many challenges loom
- Fed minions agree, economic recovery from COVID will be bumpy:
- Fed's Daly says U.S. economy needs more fiscal support: CNBC
- Fed's Bowman sees bumpy recovery, warns on asset prices
- Barkin: U.S. challenge is finding jobs for 'last 5%' displaced by crisis - BBG
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, Argentina:
- Spain to lock down capital, angering regional government
- France's new COVID-19 cases above the 10,000 threshold again
- Czech government limits gatherings to combat COVID surge
- Nearly half of Argentina in poverty as pandemic deepens crisis, researchers say
- ECB minions moving to synchronize with Fed policies, but face internal divisions:
- ECB's Lagarde sets scene for Fed-like strategy overhaul
- Euro zone deflation risks balanced, ECB's Kazimir says
- ECB's Weidmann warns against large-scale bond buys
- Wall Street closes higher as stimulus talks progress
- Thursday, 1 October 2020
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- End of third-quarter shows bright spots, holes in U.S. economic recovery
- Oil drops 4% on weak demand outlook and higher OPEC supplies
- Big U.S. banks to report profit plunge as pandemic recession takes hold
- U.S.'s Mnuchin offers $1.6 trillion in stimulus: Bloomberg News
- Bigger coronavirus trouble developing in India and Poland, potential nightmare for insurers developing in Germany:
- India's coronavirus infections rise to 6.31 million
- Poland reports record number of new daily coronavirus infections
- German court rules insurer must pay restaurant's lockdown claim
- Positive signs developing in Eurozone, world's schools:
- Euro zone factory recovery continued in September as Germany boomed
- No clear link between school opening and COVID surge, study finds
- ECB minions see bad news coming for Eurobanks, want higher inflation, trademark 'Digital Euro':
- Euro zone banks must brace for profit hit: ECB
- ECB won't cut inflation target: de Cos
- ECB Applies for ‘Digital Euro’ Trademark Amid Feasibility Study
- Wall Street ends choppy session higher as stimulus hopes ebb and flow
- Friday, 2 October 2020
- Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Trump's positive COVID test throws markets pre-election curveball
- U.S. adds 661,000 jobs in September and unemployment rate falls to 7.9%
- Oil loses 4% after Trump gets coronavirus and economies wobble
- Racial gap in U.S. jobless rate narrows for first time in five months
- U.S. factory orders miss expectations; business spending improving
- ECB minions worries about deflation, ready plan to flood markets with "digital euro":
- Euro zone inflation will remain negative this year: ECB' de Guindos
- ECB must prepare to issue a digital euro, Panetta says
- Wall St retreats as Trump tests positive for COVID-19
Barry Ritholtz presents both a broader and more succinct summary of the week's headlines with his weekly presentation of the positives and negatives he found in the past week's economics and markets news.