With no new Lévy flight events, the first week of February 2021 saw volatility ease for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX).
From the perspective of the dividend futures-based model, that means the week ended as it began, with investors maintaining their forward-looking focus on 2021-Q2 throughout the week. The latest update to the alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart shows the S&P 500 following the trajectory associated with investors focusing on 2021-Q2 in setting current day stock prices.
That's pretty much the week in a nutshell! Here are the week's more significant headlines, where there was no new information to prompt investors to alter their future time horizon.
- Monday, 1 February 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil settles up more than 2% as U.S. inventories fall, demand picks up
- U.S. construction spending hits record high in December
- U.S. manufacturing sector slows; prices paid by factories highest since 2011 - ISM
- CBO says U.S. economy set for faster 2021 rebound, complicating stimulus talks
- U.S. factory activity cools amid COVID-19 flare-up
- Fed minions gloomy, want more government spending:
- Fed officials say U.S. economy still in depths of recession, more relief needed
- Fed's Bostic: Hard to pinpoint how much more fiscal help is needed -CNBC
- Fed's Kaplan: to return to normal, need aggressive fiscal and Fed action
- Fed's Kashkari says need to keep up support for economy
- Bigger trouble developing in China, Eurozone:
- China's factory recovery slows in January as COVID-19 returns
- Euro zone factory recovery faltered in January but still strong: PMI
- ECB minions dismiss signs of inflation in Eurozone:
- Wall Street ends up sharply, led by gains in tech shares
- Tuesday, 2 February 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil jumps 2%, hits highest in a year as producers limit supply
- U.S. Mint unable to meet demand for gold, silver bullion coins
- U.S. Democrats take first step to go it alone on Biden's COVID-19 aid
- Fed minions split on need for more government spending, acknowledge Fed's QE role in boosting stock buying frenzy:
- Fed policy makers, like lawmakers, split on need for more fiscal aid
- Fed policy is one factor in Reddit-fueled frenzy, U.S. central banker says
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- Wall Street jumps for second day; Amazon says Bezos to step down from CEO role
- Wednesday, 3 February 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- U.S. private payrolls rebound; services industry activity gains steam
- U.S. crude hits one-year highs after U.S. stock drawdown
- Biden tells Democrats he would consider limits on who gets COVID-19 checks
- Fed minions see growth, higher inflation, and more government spending needed ahead:
- Fed's Mester says more fiscal help may be needed in short term
- Fed's Evans sees price spikes ahead, but policy steady
- Fed's Bullard sees 'very strong' U.S. economic growth as pandemic eases in 2021
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- Euro zone downturn deepened in January as lockdowns hit services
- Euro zone inflation rebounds more than expected in January
- Bigger stimulus developing in Japan:
- Architect of BOJ's 'bazooka' stimulus calls for fiscal firepower to beat deflation
- BOJ must be ready to cut rates, explore tools to battle shocks, says deputy governor
- S&P 500, Dow end up for 3rd day as Alphabet jumps, volatility eases
- Thursday, 4 February 2021
- Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil rises on economic optimism, tightening supplies
- Subsiding layoffs raise cautious optimism for U.S. labor market
- U.S. factory orders beat expectations in December
- U.S. productivity posts biggest drop since 1981 in fourth quarter
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
- Bigger retail sales, bigger stimulus developing in the Eurozone:
- Euro zone retail sales rebound more than expected in December
- Austerity is the wrong choice: German Finance Minister
- S&P 500, Nasdaq hit record closing highs amid upbeat earnings, data
- Friday, 5 February 2021
- Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil rises 1%, hits highest in a year on growth hopes, OPEC+ output cuts
- Instant view: January U.S. jobs rebound falls short, December COVID bite looks worse
- U.S. consumers sock away more cash, pay down card debt, in COVID-19 times
- Democrats clear path for approval of Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID package
- Analysis: As inflation expectations jump, analysts see further room to rise
- S&P 500, Nasdaq post biggest weekly gains since early November
But wait, there's more! For another angle on the week's headlines, Barry Ritholtz outlines the week's positives and negatives from the economics and markets news streams!