Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in May 2023 is $81,454, an increase of $367 (or 0.45%) from the initial estimate of $81,087 in April 2023.
Update 31 October 2023: We have revised our estimate of median household income for this month based on new information from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2022 and revisions to income data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis that were released in September 2023. Please follow this link to see how much. If you're interested, we've provided more information about what has changed and why we think its significant.
After adjusting for inflation, the month-over-month increase is $158 over April 2023's revised estimate of $81,296 in terms of constant May 2023 U.S. dollars. Although inflation was comparatively muted in May 2023, it still managed to consume 57% of the nominal increase in median household income from the previous month. May 2023's estimate also remains below December 2022's inflation adjusted peak of $81,646.
The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through May 2023 The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant May 2023 U.S. dollars.
Looking at the rate at which median household income is increasing, we find that it is slowing. Slowly. Measured year-over-year, that growth rate peaked at 11.1% in April 2022. As of May 2023, that growth rate has declined to 6.7%. It is still positive, yet it is falling less than half as quickly as it rose between March 2021 and April 2022, suggesting inflationary pressures remain persistent.
More worringly, average personal earned income has slowed noticeably since September 2022, while inflation adjusted income has fallen during that time. The next chart focuses on the period since December 2020:
We find that since December 2020, average personal earned income has ranged between a high of $35,533 in December 2021 to a low of $34,178 in June 2022, all in terms of constant May 2023 U.S. dollars. The initial estimate of this measure for May 2023 is $34,897. Follow this link for a longer term view of average indivdiual earned income.
Analyst's Notes
After last month's notable revisions, the BEA's adjustments to its aggregate income estimates only affected data in 2023. The magnitude of the adjustments ranged from miniscule (January 2023 decreased by 0.004%) to tiny (March 2023's estimate increased bu 0.055%).
If you're curious how we generate our estimates of median household income, we last updated our methodology in March 2022 following a much more substantial revision of aggregate income data. We also periodically compare our estimates with others.
For the latest in our coverage of median household income in the United States, follow this link!
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 June 2023. Accessed: 30 June 2023.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 June 2023. Accessed: 30 June 2023.
U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 13 June 2023. Accessed: 13 June 2023.
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