Wall Street bulls got something of a scare in the first trading week of February 2026. After starting the week strong, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) got clobbered between Tuesday and Thursday before rebounding to end the week at 6,932.30, up 0.24% from where it closed out the final trading week of January 2026.
What clobbered the market in the middle of the week was tightly targeted on companies making big capital expenditures in building out their investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) led the market down early in the week after revealing they were doubling their capital expenditures to $185 billion to support building their AI systems. That was followed up by Amazon's announcement they plan to spend $200 billion this year on its AI infrastructure.
Also during the week, privately held Anthropic unveiled a new generation of its Claude AI system tailored to automate the generation of computer code. That development prompted investors to not just beat the hell out of software development companies but also financial firms that have made large investments in them.
That downward action was mitigated by the end of the week as investors rotated toward dividend paying firms, benefitting the Dow Jones Industrials, which broke through the 50,000 mark.
Overall, the combination of things going on within the S&P 500 was enough to keep it on track with the dividend futures-based model's trajectory associated with investors focusing on the upcoming quarter of 2026-Q2. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the S&P 500 has kept within a few percent of that projected level.
Although we've already covered the week's biggest market-moving news, there was more that investors absorbed. Here are those additional headlines:
- Monday, 2 February 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Next Fed minion boss wants to shake things up at Fed:
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- China's measures to shore up its indebted property sector
- China new home prices rise in January as government signals support, private survey says
- Growth signs developing in Japan:
- Less bad, but still bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- Euro zone factory activity contracts in January but output rebounds, PMI shows
- Euro zone firms see deteriorating profits, ECB survey shows
- S&P 500 flirts with record high; chipmakers and small caps jump
- Tuesday, 3 February 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- India-US trade deal slashes tariffs; seen lifting exports, market sentiment
- US to cut tariffs on India to 18%, India agrees to end Russian oil purchases
- India to ramp up purchases of US oil, arms, aircraft
- Oil steadies as investors weigh supply, possible US-Iran de-escalation
- Investors ramp up bets on steeper yield curve under Warsh-led Fed
- US homebuilders working on plan to develop as many as 1 million ‘Trump Homes,' Bloomberg News reports
- Fed minions say predicting the future is hard:
- Fed's Barkin says hard to know how long higher productivity will last
- Fed's Miran tells Fox Business he still wants rate cuts this year
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- U.S. stocks finish lower as Wall Street sells tech despite positive Q4 results and a gold rebound
- Wednesday, 4 February 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices climb 3% on report US officials reject Iran's request to change location of talks
- US services sector steady in January, supply constraints from AI data centers feared
- Trump says 'not much' doubt interest rates will be lowered, in NBC interview
- Fed minions told they lost trust of Americans, new minion stops working second job:
- Bessent: Fed lost trust of American people over inflation, threatening independence
- Fed Governor Miran quits White House job
- Bigger stimulus developing in China, signs of growth:
- Automakers in China roll-out longer-term financing plans to spur demand
- China services activity picks up in January, hiring hits 6 month high, survey shows
- BOJ minions wish new Japan PM "good luck with that", growth signs develop in Japan:
- Exclusive: BOJ won't come to the rescue of a Takaichi-driven bond rout
- Japan's services activity hits fastest growth in nearly a year, PMI shows
- Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
- Euro zone economic momentum wanes further in January, PMI shows
- Euro zone inflation dips in January as soft patch begins
- Nasdaq, S&P 500 extend losses amid suffering tech trade, weak jobs data
- Thursday, 5 February 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil falls more than 1% on easing supply concerns after US, Iran agree to talks
- US job openings drop to more than five-year low in December
- Fed minions thinking about doing nothing with interest rates, even though they understand their policy is restrictive:
- Fed's Cook says it's time to 'wait and see' on rates
- Fed's Cook says policy rate 'ever so mildly' restrictive
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- JapanGov minion starting to think fiscal discipline might be important:
- ECB minions do nothing with Eurozone interest rates, as expected. Also say they’re okay with weaker US dollar:
- Wall Street sells off due to AI capex fears and disappointing jobs data
- Friday, 6 February 2026
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices stable after U.S. and Iran hold nuclear talks
- Interest rate outlook comes under scrutiny next week with jobs, inflation data on deck
- Anthropic’s breakout moment: how Claude cracked AI for business
- Fed minions see weak labor market as giving room for rate cuts:
- Exclusive: Fed's Daly sees labor market vulnerabilities, room to cut interest rates
- Fed's Jefferson cautiously optimistic about economy, sees job market stabilizing, inflation falling
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
- Japan's biggest banks ready to increase JGB holdings despite growing losses
- Former Japan currency chief says FX intervention should be backed by rate hikes
- ECB minions see bailouts as growth opportunity; Eurozone minions see crypto-Euro as key to their growth:
- ECB's safety net is part of EU plan to court new allies
- Exclusive: Euro zone ministers to weigh euro-stablecoins, more joint debt issuance to boost role of euro
- Dow reaches 50K, ends at record high as U.S. stocks rise on NVDA lift
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued projecting the Fed will keep holding the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2) when it forecasts a quarter point rate cut. The tool anticipates another quarter point reduction on 16 September (2026-Q3). The expected timing of both these projected rate cuts have held steady for the last several weeks.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow toolestimates real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 is unchanged at +4.2%, with no updates in the last week. Updates are on tap for the upcoming week.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a young Wall Street bull who is shocked and scared after a jack-in-the-box pops open to show a bear holding a sign that says 'AI CAPEX'".