13 July 2021

Estimated Net Global GDP Lost to Coronavirus Pandemic Exceeds $15.6 Trillion

The triple dip global recession from the coronavirus pandemic continued tracking downward through the end of the second quarter of 2021.

We can see that result in the rate at which carbon dioxide is being added to the Earth's atmosphere. Here, we find the trailing year average of that rate continued to fall through June 2021, as the coronavirus pandemic's negative impact on economic activity continued to take a deep toll.

Trailing Twelve Month Average of Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 1960 - June 2021

Since we're at a quarter end, we'll estimate the net reduction in global GDP that has resulted since December 2019 as a consequence of the pandemic and the actions of governments to cope with it. The net reduction of 0.47 parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide has been entered as the default value for this data in the following tool. If you're accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, please click through to our site to access a working version of the tool.

Change in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Input Data Values
Change in Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere [Parts per Million]
World Population [billions]

Change in Amount of Carbon Dioxide Emitted into Atmosphere
Calculated Results Values
Carbon Dioxide Emissions [billions of Metric Tonnes]
Estimated Net Change in World GDP [trillions]

Using these default values, we estimate the net loss to global GDP some 18 months after the first stirrings of the coronavirus pandemic began impacting national economies exceeds $15.6 trillion.

From the end of March 2021 through June 2021, the coronavirus pandemic affected the large economies of India, China, Japan, significant parts of Europe, and several nations in South America. Diminished economic activity corresponds with reduced rates of carbon dioxide being added to the Earth's air.

With other regions in the global economy experiencing strong recoveries, the negative impact being experienced in the regions coping with the pandemic has to be large enough to offset the increasing carbon dioxide emissions coinciding with their increased economic output.

References

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Text File]. Updated 6 July 2021. Accessed 6 July 2021.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here is our series quantifying the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Earth's economy, presented in reverse chronological order.

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