Unexpectedly Intriguing!
23 June 2021

When we last covered the state of the global economy, we found it had just begun rebounding after having entered a double-dip recession. Deeply impacted regions like North America and the Eurozone were showing signs of recovery, boosted by the arrival of COVID vaccines.

Two months ago, that recovery could be measured by the increasing rate at which carbon dioxide was being added to the Earth's atmosphere. Two months later we find that sign of improvement has reversed, indicating the global economy is experiencing a triple dip recession.

Trailing Twelve Month Average of Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 1960 - May 2021

What happened to reverse the global economic recovery?

From the end of March 2021 through May 2021, the coronavirus pandemic reared its ugly head in India and several nations in South America, including Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia.

Daily Confirmed New Cases (7-Day Moving Average) - Outbreak evlotuion for the current most affected countries, 1 January 2020 - 18 June 2021

Of these countries, India suffered the most extreme spread of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections in the period from March through May 2021, the severity of which hammered its economy. And by extension, the global economy because India has become the fifth largest national economy in the world.

Data for the changing concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere indicates that negative impact on India's economy was very large. It more than fully offset the rate at which CO2 is being added to the Earth's air resulting by the other regions of the world whose economic recoveries are well underway.

References

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. Daily Confirmed New Cases (7-Day Moving Average) Outbreak Evolution for the Current Most Affected Countries. [Online Database]. Accessed 19 June 2021.

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Text File]. Updated 6 April 2020. Accessed 19 June 2021.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here is our series quantifying the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Earth's economy, presented in reverse chronological order.

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