Unexpectedly Intriguing!
September 22, 2014

Although the Federal Reserve met, issued a statement, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen held a press conference last week, none of it meaningfully affected the trajectory of stock prices, which continued to behave consistently with investors focused on the future quarter of 2014-Q4 in setting their expectations for making investment decisions. As expected, our rebaselined model pretty much nailed where stock prices ended the week.

Alternative Trajectories for S&P 500 Stock Prices, Third Quarter of 2014, Rebaselined Model (Baseline Set 2 Years Earlier), Snapshot on 19 September 2014

Next week should prove interesting because we'll start getting our first glimpse into the expectations for the future quarter of 2015-Q3!

Analyst Notes

What was the earliest point in time at which our rebaselined model could have accurately predicted where stock prices ended up on 19 September 2014?

As we'll demonstrate with the following animation, the earliest we could have anticipated that the S&P 500 would close at that particular level was ten days earlier, after the expectations for 2014-Q4 shifted on 10 September 2014. We'll pick up the action as stock prices began transitioning from investors being focused on the more distant future quarter of 2015-Q2 to the nearer future quarter of 2014-Q4 after 25 August 2014.

Alternative Trajectories for S&P 500 Stock Prices, Third Quarter of 2014, Rebaselined Model (Baseline Set 2 Years Earlier), Animation from 25 August 2014 through 19 September 2014

As we noted last week, we anticipate that stock prices will continue to more closely pace the alternative trajectories indicated by our rebaselined model until mid-October 2014, when the final echoes from the major noise events of a year ago finally dissipate, allowing us to resume using our standard model.

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.