Unexpectedly Intriguing!
25 July 2019

After having plunged from October 2018 through March 2019, median new home sale prices in the U.S. would appear to be stabilizing in recent months, with their initial trailing year average for June 2019 unchanged from the previous month at $319,300.

Trends in Trailing Twelve Month Average of Median U.S. New Home Sale Prices, July 2012 through June 2019

The decline in median new home sale prices began shortly after 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. peaked at 4.87% in November 2018, the highest they had been since February 2011, which was nearly a full percentage point higher than the 3.92% recorded in November 2017. In June 2018 however, the average 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. has dropped to 3.80%, having fallen by more than a full percentage point during the last seven months.

30-Year Conventional Fixed Mortgage Rates in U.S., July 2012 through June 2019

The decline in median new home sale prices while median household incomes in the U.S. have generally continued to rise has resulted in new homes becoming relatively more affordable in recent months. In June 2019, the median sale price of a new home sold in the U.S. was a little over five times the estimated median household income for the month.

Ratio of Trailing Twelve Month Averages for Median New Home Sale Prices and Median Household Income, Annual: 1967 to 2017 | Monthly: December 2000 to June 2019

References

U.S. Census Bureau. Median and Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in the United States. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 July 2019.

Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971. [Online Database]. Accessed 24 July 2019.

Sentier Research. Household Income Trends: April 2019. [PDF Document]. Accessed 30 May 2019. [Note: We've converted all data to be in terms of current (nominal) U.S. dollars, and are using a projection for June 2019's estimate.]

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