Unexpectedly Intriguing!
11 September 2023
Broken silver iPhone photo by Fili Santillán via Unsplash - https://unsplash.com/photos/vzo-g6y3Xlw

The silver lining investors found in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in the previous trading week lost some of its luster. The index declined by 1.3% during the trading week ending on Friday, 8 September 2023, closing out the Labor Day-holiday shortened week at 4457.49.

Most of that decline took place during the first two trading days of the week, as oil prices rose and signs of bigger trouble developed in both China and the Eurozone. But the biggest trouble for the S&P 500 came on Wednesday, 6 September, when news came China's leaders would order Chinese government agencies to stop using iPhones. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the biggest single component of the S&P 500 index, so a bad day for Apple's stock automatically weights the index down. Apple's stock price dropped by 6% by the end of the week, accounting for about a third of the index' overall decline by itself.

For the entire index, the week's decline puts its trajectory close to the middle of the latest redzone forecast range on the latest update to the alternative futures chart.

Alternative Futures - SP 500 - 2023Q3 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 8 Sep 2023

Other stuff also happened during the past week, which probably accounts for the rest of the S&P 500's downward movement. Here's our summary of the week's market moving headlines.

Tuesday, 5 September 2023
Wednesday, 6 September 2023
Thursday, 7 September 2023
Friday, 8 September 2023

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool was comparatively unchanged in the past week. It continues to show no rate hike when the Fed next meets on 19-20 September (2023-Q3). After which, the tool projects the Fed will hold rates steady until 1 May (2024-Q2), which is expected to mark the first of a series of quarter point rate cuts continuing at six-to-twelve-week intervals through the end of 2024.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool held steady in forecasting an annualized real growth rate of +5.6% during 2023-Q3. That's well above the so-called "Blue Chip Consensus" that anticipates real GDP growth during 2023-Q3 somewhere in a range between +1.1% and +3.4%, with a midrange estimate of about +2.4%.

Image credit: Photo by Fili Santillán on Unsplash.

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