The numbers for U.S. stock market dividends were bearish in November 2024.
Standard and Poor's dividend metadata for the month tells the tale. There were 43 fewer favorable changes recorded for November 2024 than were recorded in the same month a year earlier. At the same time, the number of unfavorable changes over this year-over-year period rose by one. The combination of these figures gives us a net change of -44, which confirms November 2024 as a bearish month for dividend paying stocks in the U.S. stock market.
For context, the number of favorable changes adds together November 2024's dividend increases, resumptions of dividend payments after having been suspended, and also any special or extra dividend payments for shareholders. Unfavorable changes include dividend decreases and omitted (or passed, or suspended) dividends.
The following table tallies all these dividend actions for November 2024, while also presenting the month-over-month and year-over-year changes. The year-over-year changes are what we use to consolidate all the positive and negative changes into a single number that tells us whether the month was bullish (positive) or bearish (negative) for dividend paying firms in the U.S.
| Dividend Changes in November 2024 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-2024 | Oct-2024 | MoM | Nov-2023 | YoY | |
| Total Declarations | 4,108 | 3,806 | 302 ▲ | 3,822 | 286 ▲ |
| Favorable | 221 | 175 | 46 ▲ | 264 | -43 ▼ |
| - Increases | 143 | 135 | 8 ▲ | 161 | -18 ▼ |
| - Special/Extra | 78 | 40 | 38 ▲ | 103 | -25 ▼ |
| - Resumed | 0 | 0 | 0 ◀▶ | 0 | 0 ◀▶ |
| Unfavorable | 16 | 7 | 9 ▲ | 15 | 1 ▲ |
| - Decreases | 16 | 7 | 9 ▲ | 15 | 1 ▲ |
| - Omitted/Passed | 0 | 0 | 0 ◀▶ | 0 | 0 ◀▶ |
While November 2024's dividend metadata is bearish, the good news is the dividend numbers are not recessionary. The number of dividend decreases recorded during the month remains well below the threshold that would indicate recessionary conditions are present within the U.S. economy.
The following chart visualizes the monthly counts of dividend increases and decreases from January 2004 through November 2024.
December 2024's dividend metadata will likely see both the number of dividend increases and decreases come in lower than November 2024's levels. These changes would be consistent with the typical seasonal pattern for dividends when investors do not expect any major changes in tax policies in the upcoming new year.
References
Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 4 September 2024.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bear looking at a crystal ball with the word 'DIVIDENDS'".
Labels: dividends
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