to your HTML Add class="sortable" to any table you'd like to make sortable Click on the headers to sort Thanks to many, many people for contributions and suggestions. Licenced as X11: http://www.kryogenix.org/code/browser/licence.html This basically means: do what you want with it. */ var stIsIE = /*@cc_on!@*/false; sorttable = { init: function() { // quit if this function has already been called if (arguments.callee.done) return; // flag this function so we don't do the same thing twice arguments.callee.done = true; // kill the timer if (_timer) clearInterval(_timer); if (!document.createElement || !document.getElementsByTagName) return; sorttable.DATE_RE = /^(\d\d?)[\/\.-](\d\d?)[\/\.-]((\d\d)?\d\d)$/; forEach(document.getElementsByTagName('table'), function(table) { if (table.className.search(/\bsortable\b/) != -1) { sorttable.makeSortable(table); } }); }, makeSortable: function(table) { if (table.getElementsByTagName('thead').length == 0) { // table doesn't have a tHead. Since it should have, create one and // put the first table row in it. the = document.createElement('thead'); the.appendChild(table.rows[0]); table.insertBefore(the,table.firstChild); } // Safari doesn't support table.tHead, sigh if (table.tHead == null) table.tHead = table.getElementsByTagName('thead')[0]; if (table.tHead.rows.length != 1) return; // can't cope with two header rows // Sorttable v1 put rows with a class of "sortbottom" at the bottom (as // "total" rows, for example). This is B&R, since what you're supposed // to do is put them in a tfoot. So, if there are sortbottom rows, // for backwards compatibility, move them to tfoot (creating it if needed). sortbottomrows = []; for (var i=0; i
We're going to play a little bit of catch up today, starting from the last time in 2015 that we discussed where the S&P 500 was going to head next.
On that day, we added an update to our original post to note where the market closed:
Update 21 December 2015, 6:38 PM EST: Here are the current expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share for 2016, as determined from today's recorded values for the CBOE's dividend futures contracts for the S&P 500:
2016-Q1: $11.40 | 2016-Q2: $11.45 | 2016-Q3: $11.64 | 2016-Q4: $11.77
Meanwhile, here's the updated version of our alternative futures forecast chart through the close of trading on 21 December 2015:
Still focused on 2016-Q2. At least, until that changes....
We're now going to roll our chart to the left, to capture all the time from when the dividend futures contracts for 2015-Q4 expired on the third Friday of December 2015 through the end of the first quarter of 2016.
In between then and last Friday (8 January 2016), here's what really drove U.S. stock prices:
What we just described above hopefully explains why bad economic news can produce the seemingly paradoxical result of rising stock prices. The trajectory that stock prices follow depends not just on where they just were, but also upon how far forward in time investors are focusing as they make their current day investment decisions.
But that only brings us up to the beginning of the past week. Let's resume our day-by-day play-by-play:
Given all the news from China, many might be surprised that we don't consider it to have been much of a major influence over what has been happening in U.S. markets. Looking at what's happened during the past week however, we do see a repeating theme from August 2015.
Back then, the massive selloff that took place in China's markets came in response to Chinese authorities relaxing some of the restrictions they had placed on selling stocks earlier in the year.
In January 2016, after setting up their market's new circuit breakers, Chinese authorities once again relaxed their other restrictions on selling activity, believing they would be sufficient to arrest downward pressure on Chinese stock prices. Days after taking effect, the circuit breakers are being dumped as restrictions on selling stocks are now being reimposed.
Meanwhile, the same factors that initially drove such widespread selling activity are still present in China, with the pressure for selling growing because that activity has been forcefully constrained without the sufficient improvement in China's economic situation that would be needed to allow that pressure to be relaxed naturally as yet.
Speaking of which, Zero Hedge reports that Goldman Sachs is estimating that China's leaders have spent 1.8 trillion yuan to prop up Chinese stock prices by buying up the shares of Chinese firms. Funny - if they had only underwritten the dividend payments of the Chinese firms instead, decoupling them from their earnings, they could have both been more successful in propping up prices and spent quite a lot less, as that action would have relaxed a good portion of the pressure upon Chinese investors to sell.
As for what's happening in U.S. markets, the best way to describe what's happening there is that investors have been engaged in a speculative dispute with the Fed over the number of rate hikes in 2016, with investors saying fewer and the Fed saying more. Recent falling stock prices are consistent with investors shifting their forward-looking focus from 2016-Q3 to 2016-Q2 (mostly) as the likely timing for the Fed's next rate hike. The activity in China's markets is mostly coincidental to what's really been driving U.S. markets.
The big question of course is whether the Fed really wants to fully convince the market that they're solidly committed to boosting interest rates again during 2016-Q1. If they do, watch out below....
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Closing values for previous trading day.
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