The diverging trends for the United States' international trade continued in May 2024. The nation's trade with China was flat to lower, with the trailing twelve month average of the total value of goods exchanged between the two nations coming in lower. Meanwhile, the recovery in trade between the U.S. and the rest of the world continued, although at a slow pace.
For China, the level of trade between the two countries is expected to fall in the months ahead as a new series of the Biden administration's anti-free trade tariffs are set to take effect on 1 August 2024. The Biden administration has not announced any new anti-free trade tariffs with the rest of the world beyond those it already announced and implemented in 2023.
Two charts visualize the trends we've summarized above. The first chart shows the combined value of goods traded between the U.S. and China from January 2017 through May 2024.
The gap between the trailing year average of US-China trade and its post-pandemic recovery counterfactual based on how trade between the two nations recovered after the 2008-09 Great Recession widened to $16.9 billion in May 2024. The cumulative loss of trade between the two countries since October 2022 stands at $206 billion.
The second chart shows the total value of goods exchanged between the United States and the entire world, both with and without the portion of goods exchanged with China.
A slow recovery in trade between the U.S. and the rest of the world excluding China has been underway since January 2024.
References
U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with China. Last updated: 6 August 2024.
U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with World, Not Seasonally Adjusted. Last updated: 6 August 2024.
Image credit: Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay.
Labels: trade
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