Unexpectedly Intriguing!
07 July 2015

By request, we've updated and begun refining our earlier presentation showing the major trends in the number of employed by age group as correlated with changes in the average retail price of gasoline in the U.S.

Change in Number of Employed by Age Group Since Total Employment Peak Reached in November 2007, through June 2015

One thing we observe is that with the recent rise in average fuel prices, the number of employed teens has nearly dropped back to where it was in the period from October 2009 through September 2014, suggesting that the recent benefits for employment growth to having had fuel prices fall from July 2014 through February 2015 may now be lost as fuel prices rise. Curiously, when we dug deeper into the data, we found that almost all of the reversal for U.S. teens occurred for male teenagers.

We also see that the effect of rising fuel prices isn't limited to younger Americans, as we see that once those prices began rising, the improving trend and momentum in the job picture for older Americans began to stall out in recent months. It is as if the relative increase in the disposable income that Americans gained as a result of having fuel prices fall is no longer available to fuel growth for firms whose business prospects are particularly sensitive to changes in the disposable income of American consumers.

Looking at the larger picture and what it means for the U.S. economy, the reason we focus special attention on the employment trends for both U.S. teens and young adults betwen the ages of 20 and 24 because these individuals are, almost by definition, on the margins for the U.S. job market. And of course, as any competent economist knows, all the important action in a nation's economy occurs or is most evident at its margins, which is why a capable analyst would go to the trouble of attempting to visualize the nation's changing employment situation against the context of the major factors that influence it.

Admittedly, we're still working at it because we're adapting a chart that we originally developed for another purpose by, in effect, using crayons to color in the relevant context.


U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey. Household Data: Both Sexes, All Races, All Origins, 16 years and over, 16 to 19 years, 20 to 24 years, All education levels, All marital statuses, Employed, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, November 2007 through June 2015. [Online Application]. Accessed 5 July 2015.

U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices, November 2007 through June 2015. [Online Application]. Accessed 5 July 2015.

Labels: , ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.