Unexpectedly Intriguing!
August 9, 2017

June 2017 saw a fairly robust growth rate in the value of goods and services being traded between the U.S. and China, suggesting that economic growth between the world's two largest trade partners, as measured by the total value of goods traded between each, is relatively healthy.

The following chart shows the year over year growth rate of the exchange rate-adjusted value of goods and services imported and exported by the U.S. and China to each other for each month from January 1986 through July 2017.

Year Over Year Growth Rate of Exchange Rate-Adjusted U.S.-China Trade in Goods and Services, January 1986 - June 2017

The biggest surprise in the trade data continues to be the volume of U.S. oil and gas exports to China, which is now starting to be picked up by mainstream media organizations. Through the first six months of 2017, the value of U.S. oil and gas shipments to China has totaled over $3.6 billion, putting it just behind U.S. shipments of soybeans for the year to date, which have totaled $3.9 billion.

We mention soybeans because the third quarter is when the U.S. soybean harvest will get under way, where China will be the primary foreign customer for the crop. Compared to last year, we don't expect to see record quantities of U.S. soybeans being shipped to China, mainly because the world's top grower of soybeans, Brazil, has recovered from a 2016 drought with a strong crop this year, where we think that China will fulfill a larger share of its soybean needs from that nation.

It's worth watching because annual U.S. soybean exports have a significant effect on third quarter GDP, where 2016 was considerably stronger as a result of China's larger-than-expected demand for U.S. soybean exports because of the Brazilian drought.

Data Sources

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. China / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate. G.5 Foreign Exchange Rates. Accessed 6 August 2017.

U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with China. Released 4 August 2017. Accessed 6 August 2017.

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. Trade Online. [Online Database]. Accessed 6 August 2017.

Labels:

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Applications

This year, we'll be experimenting with a number of apps to bring more of a current events focus to Political Calculations - we're test driving the app(s) below!

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links
Charities We Support
Recommended Reading
Recommended Viewing
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives
Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.