Unexpectedly Intriguing!
June 18, 2018

Last week, we listed three possible outcomes for how the trajectory of the S&P 500 would evolve after we reached the effective end of 2018-Q2.

Well, we reached the effective end of 2018-Q2 with a quadruple witching event on Friday, 15 June 2018, and we may have gotten an indication of where investors are investors will be shifting their forward-looking attention next: toward the distant future quarter of 2019-Q1.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2018Q2 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 15 Jun 2018

Truth be told, the jury is still out on whether that is really the case. It is still quite possible that investors are splitting their attention between 2019-Q1 and the nearer term future quarter of 2018-Q4, where they may just be putting a higher weight on the expectations associated with the more distant future quarter in setting today's stock prices. Which wouldn't be a bad outcome for investors because at least it doesn't coincide with a decline in stock prices.

As for the news of the week, which was described in some quarters as "the most important week of 2018", the market's reaction to all that news could be summarized as "meh", where even a new round of tariffs being imposed by the U.S. and China on goods exported by each to the other on Friday didn't contribute much more than a trivial level of noise to the market on the last day of the second full week of June 2018.

Monday, 11 June 2018
Tuesday, 12 June 2018
Wednesday, 13 June 2018
Thursday, 14 June 2018
Friday, 15 June 2018

Barry Ritholtz succinctly summarized Week 2 of June 2018's economic and market events, finding 8 positives and 5 negatives. If that doesn't intrigue you, there were also 5 "m/o/m" data points and one that was "w/o/w". (You really have to dig for points of interest on those "meh" weeks!)

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