Unexpectedly Intriguing!
July 23, 2018

Earnings season for 2018-Q3 is off to a positive start, and with the S&P 500 now just 2% away from setting new records, investors have shifted a portion of their forward-looking attention away from 2019-Q1 to focus on the current quarter.

At least, that's one interpretation that explains what we're seeing in the alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart for the S&P 500.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2018Q3 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 20 Jul 2018

Assuming that it is 2018-Q3 that they're focusing upon, it looks like investors are placing about 25% of their attention on 2018-Q3 and about 75% on the more distant future quarter of 2019-Q1 in setting today's stock prices.

The main question for the market going forward is to what extent might the ongoing tit-for-tat tariff wars negatively affect the business outlooks of traditional S&P 500 firms and to what extent might the updated outlooks of the index' biggest tech firms offset that impact.

So the upcoming fourth week of July 2018 could be a week with a lot of market-moving news. Unlike last week, which was pretty uneventful where moving the market was concerned....

Monday, 16 July 2018
Tuesday, 17 July 2018
Wednesday, 18 July 2018
Thursday, 19 July 2018
Friday, 20 July 2018

For more background, Barry Ritholtz has summarized the top six positives and negatives for markets and economics news in Week 3 of July 2018.

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