Unexpectedly Intriguing!
November 15, 2018

Earlier this year, we marked the occasion when a relative period of order appeared to end in the S&P 500 and a new period of chaos seemed set to take hold in the market.

We say "appeared to end", because order returned to the S&P 500, where a stable relationship between the daily closing value of the index and the index' trailing year dividends per share that had begun on 31 March 2016 subsequently resumed. In retrospect, what we had initially thought to be a sign of order breaking down in the stock market proved to be an outlier event in light of how stock prices behaved in the following months.

That's not the case today, where we can show that relative period of order in the stock market has much more definitively broken down following the onset of the third Lévy flight event of 2018, where the first two events represent a really aggressive reversion to the established mean of the previous period of order. The following chart shows what that looks like against the backdrop of a statistical equilibrium chart.

S&P 500 Index Value vs Trailing Year Dividends per Share, 30 September 2015 Through 14 November 2018, with Relative Period of Order from 31 March 2016 Through 11 October 2018

We mark the recently completed relative period of order as having run from 31 March 2016 to 11 October 2018. To put this period into a larger context, the following chart shows each major relative period of order and punctuated period of chaos from December 1991 through October 2018.

S&P 500 Average Monthly Index Value vs Trailing Year Dividends per Share, 
December 1991 to October 2018

If you'd like to get the data for this second chart, it's taken directly from the historical data we provide through our S&P 500 At Your Fingertips tool, where we make all the monthly data from January 1871 through the present available at no charge!

Labels: , ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.