Unexpectedly Intriguing!
01 April 2019

Since the U.S. Treasury yield curve officially inverted on 22 March 2019, when the yield of the 10-Year note dropped below the yield of the 3-Month bill, many of the Federal Reserve's minions have been running around in all different directions as confusion reigns at the U.S.' central bank.

Although it's April Fool's Day, we're not joking. In all seriousness, if you want proof, just scroll down to sample the selection of market-moving headlines that we've featured in this week's edition of our S&P 500 chaos series!

The lack of direction at the Fed coincides with an increased likelihood that the Fed will act to cut short term interest rates in the U.S. as early as by 18 September 2019, with the CME Group's FedWatch tool is now projecting better than even odds of at least a quarter point rate hike being implemented at that time or shortly after, where the outbreak of confusion at the Fed makes it more likely that the Federal Open Market Committee that sets the Federal Funds Rate will be compelled to follow the market's direction.

CME Group FedWatch Tool Federal Fund Rate Futures Probabilities, Snapshot on 29 March 2019

For the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), that puts the focus of investors somewhere between the current quarter of 2019-Q2 and the more distant future quarters of 2019-Q3 and Q4, which coincidentally keeps the trajectory of the index within the projection of the redzone range we've featured on our spaghetti forecast chart during the last ten weeks.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q1 - Standard Model with Annotated Redzone Forecast - Snapshot on 29 Mar 2019

Let's move on to the major headlines that splashed across the news wires during the last week of March 2019, where if you can tell what unified direction the members of the Fed are going to go from the statements they made, you're probably ignoring everything they said!

Monday, 25 March 2019
Tuesday, 26 March 2019
Wednesday, 27 March 2019
Thursday, 28 March 2019
Friday, 29 March 2019

If you took all the economists at the Federal Reserve, and laid them out end-to-end, you would never reach a conclusion.

Elsewhere, the Barry Ritholtz outlined the positives and negatives that were to be found in the week's markets and economy-related news, if you're looking to get a bigger picture of the week's events, sans the Fed.

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.