Unexpectedly Intriguing!
May 13, 2019

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) set no new records during the week of trading ending on Friday, 10 May 2019, where stock prices mostly appeared to react to the noise generated by trade negotiations between the United States and China.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q2 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 10 May 2019

Overall, the index stayed within the typical range of values our dividend futures-based model would project if investors were primarily focused on the distant future quarter of 2020-Q1. Not uncoincidentally, this period coincides with the expectation that the Fed will next act to cut its Federal Funds Rate during that quarter, according to the latest probabilities indicated by the CME Group’s Fedwatch Tool.

CME Group - Federal Funds Rate Change Probabilities Expected at Various Upcoming FOMC Meeting Dates - Snapshot on 10 May 2019

In collecting the market-moving news headlines of the second week of May 2019, we've made of point of including U.S-China trade negotiation-related items, although they mostly contributed a lot of noise during the week where the trajectory of stock prices was concerned.

Monday, 6 May 2019
Tuesday, 7 May 2019
Wednesday, 8 May 2019
Thursday, 9 May 2019
Friday, 10 May 2019

Barry Ritholtz grouped the week's major U.S. economy and markets stories into positives and negatives. Please click through to find out how many there were of each!

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