Unexpectedly Intriguing!
May 6, 2019

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) bounced up to reach a new high closing value of 2,945.83 on Tuesday, 30 April 2019, before dipping back on the next two trading days and finally closing a fraction of a point below that level on Friday, May 2019.

The level of the S&P 500 is consistent with investors focusing on the distant future quarter of 2020-Q1 in setting current day stock prices, which in our dividend futures-based model of how stock prices work, covers the period from 21 December 2018 through 20 March 2020, coinciding with the dividend futures contracts for that quarter.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q2 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 3 May 2019

That view is also consistent with where the expectations of future rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have shifted during the past week, thanks to the Federal Reserve's announcement and subsequent communication that the U.S. central bank sees no need to change its target for short term interest rates in the U.S. either at this time or through 2019.

That was, by far, the biggest news of the trading week that ended on Friday, 3 May 2019, where we flagged the following headlines as particularly noteworthy for their influence in setting the forward-looking focus of investors.

Monday, 29 April 2019
Tuesday, 30 April 2019
Wednesday, 1 May 2019
Thursday, 2 May 2019
Friday, 3 May 2019

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz outlined the positives and negatives he found in the week's news for U.S. markets and the economy. There are seven of each this week, with the negatives pointing toward some degree of economic deceleration.

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