Unexpectedly Intriguing!
July 15, 2019

At 3,013.77, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) closed at the highest level in its history on Friday, 12 July 2019, having spent the entire day trading above 3,000 for the first time ever.

Then again, the index has achieved new record high closing values 11 times in the last four weeks. What is more notable is that investors have continued to set their forward-looking focus on 2020-Q1 in setting stock prices...

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q3 - Standard Model, with Redzone Forecast Between 21 June 2019 and 15 July 2019 Assuming Investor Focus on 2020-Q1 - Snapshot on 12 Jul 2019

Even though investors are now expecting the Fed to cut short term interest rates in the U.S. three times in upcoming months, with quarter point reductions expected after the Federal Open Market Committee concludes upcoming meetings on 31 July 2019, on 18 September 2019 and on 11 December 2019.

CME Group FedWatch Tool Probabilities of Federal Funds Rate Changing at Future FOMC Meeting Dates, Snapshot on 12 July 2019

Investor expectations of a fourth quarter point rate cut being announced in 2020-Q1 has been oscillating about the 50% probability mark in recent weeks, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating the probability of that event being around 35% as of the end of trading on 12 July 2019.

That's where most of the action has been for investors looking forward in time in making their current day investing decisions ahead of the earnings season for 2019-Q3 officially getting underway in the next week, as Fed officials have been 'flooding the zone' in attempting to set future expectations. Here are the market-moving headlines we extracted from the week's news, where you can see the unusually large representation of statements made by the Fed's minions among the regular flow of news on Wednesday and Thursday....

Monday, 8 July 2019
Tuesday, 9 July 2019
Wednesday, 10 July 2019
Thursday, 11 July 2019
Friday, 12 July 2019

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz listed 6 positives and 6 negatives he found among the week's major market and economy-related news. Barry also celebrated the fifth anniversary of his Bloomberg Radio Masters In Business - if you've been looking for a podcast focused on business and finance topics to tune in during your daily commute, do check it out!

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