Unexpectedly Intriguing!
September 16, 2019

After all the fireworks of volatility over the last several weeks, the second week of trading in September 2019 saw precious little for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), which closed up for the entire week by less than 1% from the previous week's close.

All the action during the week was fully consistent with investors being closely focused on 2020-Q1 in setting current day stock prices, as suggested by our alternate futures spaghetti chart.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q3 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 13 Sep 2019

The reason for that was an outbreak of relatively good news, which has reduced the odds of future Fed rate cuts in upcoming months. As of the close of trading on Friday, 13 September 2019, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool is projecting quarter point rate cuts at the conclusion of the Fed's upcoming meetings this week, and again in December 2019. But whether there will be another in 2020-Q1 has become an open question, which is why investors would continue to be focusing on that particular distant future quarter:

CME Group FedWatch Tool Probabilities of Federal Funds Rate Changing at Future FOMC Meeting Dates, Snapshot on 13 September 2019

We said there was an outbreak of good news, and we meant it! Here are the headlines that caught our attention during the less-than-volatile week that was:

Monday, 9 September 2019
Tuesday, 10 September 2019
Wednesday, 11 September 2019
Thursday, 12 September 2019
Friday, 13 September 2019

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz listed six positives and six negatives he found in the week's economics and market-related news over at the Big Picture.

Given overseas events, we're afraid the upcoming week will be quite different.

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