Unexpectedly Intriguing!
December 2, 2019

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) resumed setting records during Thankgiving Week 2019, achieving a new high of 3,153.63 on the Wednesday, 27 November 2019 before cooling off with the turkey dinner leftovers after the holiday to close the week at 3,140.98.

That puts the S&P 500 right in the middle of our newly added redzone forecast range, which assumes investors will remain primarily focused on the distant future quarter of 2020-Q3 from 26 November 2019 through 7 January 2020.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q4 - Standard Model with Redzone Forecast Focused-on-2020Q3-Between 26-Nov-2019 and 07-Jan-2020 - Snapshot on 29 Nov 2019

As for why investors would focus on that particular future quarter, that has a lot to do with the anticipated timing of the Federal Reserve's next change to the Federal Funds Rate. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are currently giving better-than-even odds of a quarter point rate cut being announced by the end of September 2020.

CME Group FedWatch Tool Probabilities of Federal Funds Rate Changing at Future FOMC Meeting Dates, Snapshot on 29 November 2019

Overall, with U.S. markets being closed on Thursday, 28 November 2019 for the Thanksgiving holiday, it was a relatively quiet week for investors.

The same can't be said for foreign stock markets however, where a number of representatives from various nation's central banks made similar statements during Thursday that they had to backtrack from on Friday.

Monday, 25 November 2019
Tuesday, 26 November 2019
Wednesday, 27 November 2019
Thursday, 28 November 2019 - U.S. Markets Closed
Friday, 29 November 2019

Want to see a bigger picture of the week's economic news than you can from just these headlines? Barry Ritholtz outlined the positives and negatives he found in the week's economics and market-related news.

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