The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) resumed setting records during Thankgiving Week 2019, achieving a new high of 3,153.63 on the Wednesday, 27 November 2019 before cooling off with the turkey dinner leftovers after the holiday to close the week at 3,140.98.
That puts the S&P 500 right in the middle of our newly added redzone forecast range, which assumes investors will remain primarily focused on the distant future quarter of 2020-Q3 from 26 November 2019 through 7 January 2020.
As for why investors would focus on that particular future quarter, that has a lot to do with the anticipated timing of the Federal Reserve's next change to the Federal Funds Rate. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are currently giving better-than-even odds of a quarter point rate cut being announced by the end of September 2020.
Overall, with U.S. markets being closed on Thursday, 28 November 2019 for the Thanksgiving holiday, it was a relatively quiet week for investors.
The same can't be said for foreign stock markets however, where a number of representatives from various nation's central banks made similar statements during Thursday that they had to backtrack from on Friday.
- Monday, 25 November 2019
- Oil climbs on U.S.-China trade talks optimism
- Top U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold phone call, discuss core issues
- China and U.S. moving closer to trade deal, but no agreement on tariff rollbacks: report
- No 'phase two' U.S.-China deal on the horizon, officials say
- Going whole hog: U.S. tells exports to report pig carcass sales as China buying soars
- Bigger trouble developing in Mexico: Mexico entered recession in early 2019, dealing blow to president
- Confusion reigns among Eurozone ECB minions:
- Tuesday, 26 November 2019
- Wednesday, 27 November 2019
- Oil slips after U.S. crude build and record production
- Bigger trouble developing in China:
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- China wants to speed up business reforms, investment to boost slowing economy: premier
- China front-loads $142 billion in 2020 local government bonds to spur growth
- Fed's Kaplan: Open to looking at longer time frame for inflation
- Solid data, trade hopes lift Wall Street to records
- Thursday, 28 November 2019 - U.S. Markets Closed
- Oil ends mixed, pressured by U.S. tensions with China over rights bill
- Trump approves legislation backing Hong Kong protesters
- China warns of 'firm counter measures' after Trump signs U.S. legislation on Hong Kong
- Bigger trouble developing in China, Japan, and the Eurozone:
- China's factory activity seen contracting for seventh month on trade pressure: Reuters poll
- Japan's retail sales slump the most since 2015 as tax hike hits demand
- Central banks running dry? Pleas for bigger fiscal stimulus developing in the Eurozone and Japan:
- Euro zone business lending rebounds in October after plunge: ECB
- Japan government banks to aid firms to prepare for overseas downturn: document
- World stocks stall as U.S.-China tensions flare again
- Friday, 29 November 2019
- Oil slumps but sets monthly gain ahead of OPEC meeting
- Top U.S. retailers absorb tariff pressure ahead of holiday shopping season
- Bigger trouble developing in China, Japan, and the Eurozone:
- Japan October household spending seen falling after sales tax hike - Reuters poll
- German retail sales drop in October
- Germany plans rapid state intervention to protect key industries - This is the sort of rapid intervention that's staged only when expectations arise among officials that it will soon need to happen....
- Damage control: Central banks claim they can stimulate national economies more (but don't want to in face-saving game of chicken with governments):
- China's PBOC has room to ease policy but won't squander options - official
- BOJ's Kuroda: there's ample room for further easing at present
- Wall Street slips as U.S.-China tensions weigh, investors watch retail
Want to see a bigger picture of the week's economic news than you can from just these headlines? Barry Ritholtz outlined the positives and negatives he found in the week's economics and market-related news.
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