Unexpectedly Intriguing!
19 July 2021

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) started the trading week strong, reaching a record high close of 4,384.63 on Monday, 12 July 2021 before losing steam and retreating through much of the rest of the week. The index closed the week at 4,327.16.

That's generally consistent with the dividend futures-based model's projections for investors focusing their attention on 2022-Q1 in setting current day stock prices.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2021Q3 - Standard Model (m=-2.5 from 16 June 2021) - Snapshot on 16 Jul 2021

While the model looks forward to a sideways to slowing rising run over the next several weeks if investors keep their focus on 2022-Q1, it also indicates the risk of a 5% decline should investors have reason to shift their attention back to the current quarter of 2021-Q3.

Whether that happens will depend much on what happens with the outlook for inflation in the U.S. economy, which continues to play an outsized role in the news influencing investors' expectations.

Monday, 12 July 2021
Tuesday, 13 July 2021
Wednesday, 14 July 2021
Thursday, 15 July 2021
Friday, 16 July 2021

Looking for additional markets and economics news? Check out Abnormal Returns, in which Tadas Viskanta provides a daily roundup of links to interesting news and analysis.

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