Unexpectedly Intriguing!
08 November 2021

It was a fun week for S&P 500 (Index: SPX) investors. The index set new record highs on each trading day of the first week of November 2021, closing the week at 4,697.53.

Better still, the index has closed at record highs on its last 7 consecutive trading days!

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2021Q3 - Standard Model (m=-2.5 from 16 June 2021) - Snapshot on 5 Nov 2021

A seven consecutive day winning streak isn't as rare as you might think. Our S&P 500 streak tool indicates that the odds of that happening are just 1 in 352 over the index' modern history. If it reaches eight consecutive days, that's an event with 1 in 651 odds of happening.

Of course, the thing that makes the direction of stock prices random on a daily basis is the random onset of new information. Here's our summary of the market-moving headlines of the trading week ending 5 November 2021.

Monday, 1 November 2021
Tuesday, 2 November 2021
Wednesday, 3 November 2021
Thursday, 4 November 2021
Friday, 5 November 2021

We haven’t featured it in a while, but it will become much more relevant in 2022. Here’s the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which is currently shows investors are giving greater-than-50% odds the Fed will start hiking short term U.S. interest rates in September 2022.

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