Unexpectedly Intriguing!
18 January 2022

If the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) were doing anything out of the ordinary, we'd be happy to report it. But following the Lévy flight event of the first week of January 2022, we can't say the index is behaving unexpected in any way.

That assessment is confirmed in the latest update to the alternative futures forecast chart, where we find the trajectory of the S&P 500 falls within the range we would expect for investors focusing on the current quarter of 2022-Q1.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2022Q1 - Standard Model (m=-2.5 from 16 June 2021) - Snapshot on 14 Jan 2022

The market-moving headlines we found in the newstream of the week that was point to a substantial effort by the Federal Reserve's minions to set expectations of multiple rate hikes in 2022, starting in March.

Monday, 10 January 2022
Tuesday, 11 January 2022
Wednesday, 12 January 2022
Thursday, 13 January 2022
Friday, 14 January 2022

Through 14 January 2022, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects at least four quarter point rate hikes in 2022. Generally each hike would take place in the month ending each quarter, but possibly earlier than that in the third quarter.

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